{"title":"Quantitative risk assessment for static and mobile road users: methodology and application at A82 Glen Coe, Scotland","authors":"M. G. Winter, T. Waaser, G. Fiddes","doi":"10.1186/s40677-024-00274-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In August 2004 a series of debris flows caused significant disruption to the Scottish (strategic) Trunk Road Network. The subsequent Scottish Road Network Landslides Study identified a number of sites considered to be at highest risk. Some of these sites have been the subject of formal quantitative assessment of the risk from debris flow to mobile road users in vehicles. The A82 in Glen Coe has the added complication that two car parks have developed on debris fans exposing significant numbers of people to the risk while, they are essentially static and largely outside their vehicles. The risk to road users is determined using a previously developed probabilistic methodology for mobile road users (mobile elements at risk) and a new and related methodology developed for static road users (static elements at risk) is described and applied. Within the latter, an entirely new metric of Annual Average Daily Visits is used to allow the temporal component of the probability of a landslide impacting a person to be determined given the occurrence of an event. While Personal Individual Risk is at an acceptable level, including for frequent users, the risk presented to society as a whole presents a rather different picture; this is largely due to the number of visitors. The results assess the overall, societal risk for mobile elements at risk as As Low As reasonably Practicable, being at a similar level to other sites, albeit with a higher risk associated with higher numbers of fatalities. The results for the static elements at risk on the other hand suggest that the risks are classified as Unacceptable for higher numbers of fatalities. The assessment of the total societal risk, for mobile and static elements at risk, at the A82 Glen Coe suggests As Low As Reasonably Practicable for low numbers of fatalities but classify as Unacceptable for higher numbers of fatalities (around 20 to 250).","PeriodicalId":37025,"journal":{"name":"Geoenvironmental Disasters","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geoenvironmental Disasters","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-024-00274-9","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In August 2004 a series of debris flows caused significant disruption to the Scottish (strategic) Trunk Road Network. The subsequent Scottish Road Network Landslides Study identified a number of sites considered to be at highest risk. Some of these sites have been the subject of formal quantitative assessment of the risk from debris flow to mobile road users in vehicles. The A82 in Glen Coe has the added complication that two car parks have developed on debris fans exposing significant numbers of people to the risk while, they are essentially static and largely outside their vehicles. The risk to road users is determined using a previously developed probabilistic methodology for mobile road users (mobile elements at risk) and a new and related methodology developed for static road users (static elements at risk) is described and applied. Within the latter, an entirely new metric of Annual Average Daily Visits is used to allow the temporal component of the probability of a landslide impacting a person to be determined given the occurrence of an event. While Personal Individual Risk is at an acceptable level, including for frequent users, the risk presented to society as a whole presents a rather different picture; this is largely due to the number of visitors. The results assess the overall, societal risk for mobile elements at risk as As Low As reasonably Practicable, being at a similar level to other sites, albeit with a higher risk associated with higher numbers of fatalities. The results for the static elements at risk on the other hand suggest that the risks are classified as Unacceptable for higher numbers of fatalities. The assessment of the total societal risk, for mobile and static elements at risk, at the A82 Glen Coe suggests As Low As Reasonably Practicable for low numbers of fatalities but classify as Unacceptable for higher numbers of fatalities (around 20 to 250).
期刊介绍:
Geoenvironmental Disasters is an international journal with a focus on multi-disciplinary applied and fundamental research and the effects and impacts on infrastructure, society and the environment of geoenvironmental disasters triggered by various types of geo-hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, intensive erosion and hydro-meteorological events).
The integrated study of Geoenvironmental Disasters is an emerging and composite field of research interfacing with areas traditionally within civil engineering, earth sciences, atmospheric sciences and the life sciences. It centers on the interactions within and between the Earth''s ground, air and water environments, all of which are affected by climate, geological, morphological and anthropological processes; and biological and ecological cycles. Disasters are dynamic forces which can change the Earth pervasively, rapidly, or abruptly, and which can generate lasting effects on the natural and built environments.
The journal publishes research papers, case studies and quick reports of recent geoenvironmental disasters, review papers and technical reports of various geoenvironmental disaster-related case studies. The focus on case studies and quick reports of recent geoenvironmental disasters helps to advance the practical understanding of geoenvironmental disasters and to inform future research priorities; they are a major component of the journal. The journal aims for the rapid publication of research papers at a high scientific level. The journal welcomes proposals for special issues reflecting the trends in geoenvironmental disaster reduction and monothematic issues. Researchers and practitioners are encouraged to submit original, unpublished contributions.