Predictive or imaginative futures? Experimenting with alternative future-making approaches

Abstract

Future-making, the act of imagining and producing the future, is becoming increasingly relevant in scholarly and practitioner debates. In a constantly evolving society where the future is difficult to navigate, there is an urgent need to explore new and innovative ways of imagining plausible futures that are more desirable to people. The future-making literature proposes different practices, tools, options and possibilities for envisioning futures and advancing the debate on issues that affect society. To explore how different future-making approaches influence the generation of future scenarios, we conducted an experiment in which we asked 64 practitioners participating in teams to anticipate and imagine futures using two different future-making approaches: predictive and imaginative. The resulting future scenarios were then evaluated by 227 practitioners in a postexperiment survey measuring their plausibility and desirability, as well as their similarities and differences in terms of future scenario generation. Our study contributes to both theory and practice. In particular, we contribute to the future-making debate and enrich current understanding of the different processes and tools adopted in predictive and imaginative future-making using an experimental approach. Our study also supports practitioners in unpacking the potential of adopting different types of future-making, from predictive to imaginative.