Market timing, farmer expectations, and liquidity constraints

Abstract

We use data on price expectations from a survey of randomly sampled smallholder farmers in Mozambique. Across all crops, farmers report selling on average within three weeks of harvest, at lower prices than expected later in the season. Liquidity constrained farmers sell their harvest 50% faster than unconstrained farmers, but they increase their storage time in response to higher expected future prices. We address causality using an instrumental variables approach exploiting abnormal rainfall from cyclones Idai and Kenneth. We develop a model on market timing and its relation to price expectations and liquidity constraints.