Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393
This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.
{"title":"Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593698","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103394
This paper uses survey and tax administrative data to analyse the effects of a sizeable employer-borne payroll tax credit for young, low-wage workers in South Africa. We find fairly limited impacts of the wage subsidy on the employment of young, low-wage workers relative to two comparison groups: slightly older, low-wage workers and slightly higher-paid, young workers. We find evidence of increases in low-wage youth entry into employment, but these are too small to affect overall employment. However, the female employment rate has increased, and unemployment among women has dropped because of the policy. We find evidence to suggest that the policy has led to a rise in earnings, particularly for men and those earning around the maximum subsidy value.
{"title":"A policy for the jobless youth in South Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103394","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103394","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses survey and tax administrative data to analyse the effects of a sizeable employer-borne payroll tax credit for young, low-wage workers in South Africa. We find fairly limited impacts of the wage subsidy on the employment of young, low-wage workers relative to two comparison groups: slightly older, low-wage workers and slightly higher-paid, young workers. We find evidence of increases in low-wage youth entry into employment, but these are too small to affect overall employment. However, the female employment rate has increased, and unemployment among women has dropped because of the policy. We find evidence to suggest that the policy has led to a rise in earnings, particularly for men and those earning around the maximum subsidy value.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-19DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103391
Public organizations are often characterized by rigid rules and procedures. Can discretion in personnel decisions improve governance performance? This paper investigates how discretion in internal appointments affects the functioning of public organizations. We study an organizational reform in China’s imperial bureaucracy that modified the appointments of certain governorships from a rule-based process to a more discretionary method. We find that discretionary appointments improved public goods provision and led to greater state responsiveness. We provide evidence consistent with better selection: (1) discretion increased observable officer quality measured by experiences and civil exam qualifications; (2) exploiting the quasi-random rotations of governors to prefectures, we show that governors having previously been selected by discretion performed better. Evidence also suggests that the incentive effect is another mechanism. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that the benefit of discretion depends on the incentive alignment of decision-makers with the organization.
{"title":"Discretion, talent allocation, and governance performance: Evidence from China’s imperial bureaucracy","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103391","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103391","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Public organizations are often characterized by rigid rules and procedures. Can discretion in personnel decisions improve governance performance? This paper investigates how discretion in internal appointments affects the functioning of public organizations. We study an organizational reform in China’s imperial bureaucracy that modified the appointments of certain governorships from a rule-based process to a more discretionary method. We find that discretionary appointments improved public goods provision and led to greater state responsiveness. We provide evidence consistent with better selection: (1) discretion increased observable officer quality measured by experiences and civil exam qualifications; (2) exploiting the quasi-random rotations of governors to prefectures, we show that governors having previously been selected by discretion performed better. Evidence also suggests that the incentive effect is another mechanism. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that the benefit of discretion depends on the incentive alignment of decision-makers with the organization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-18DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103389
One out of two working children worldwide works in hazardous conditions. We study the effects of a law that introduced benefits and protections for child workers and temporarily lowered the de facto legal working age from 14 to 10 in Bolivia. We employ a difference-in-discontinuity approach that exploits the variation in the law’s application to different age groups. Work decreased for children under 14, whose work was newly legalized and regulated under the law, particularly in areas with a higher threat of inspections. The effects disappear after the law is reversed. We do not find evidence of improvements in work safety. Thus, the effects do not appear to be driven by increased hiring costs to ensure worker safety. Instead, the effects appear to be driven by a reduction in the most visible forms of child work, suggesting that firms and parents (households) may have reduced employment of young children to minimize the risk of being subject to legal and social sanctions.
{"title":"The effects of expanding worker rights to children","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103389","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103389","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>One out of two working children worldwide works in hazardous conditions. We study the effects of a law that introduced benefits and protections for child workers and temporarily lowered the de facto legal working age from 14 to 10 in Bolivia. We employ a difference-in-discontinuity approach that exploits the variation in the law’s application to different age groups. Work decreased for children under 14, whose work was newly legalized and regulated under the law, particularly in areas with a higher threat of inspections. The effects disappear after the law is reversed. We do not find evidence of improvements in work safety. Thus, the effects do not appear to be driven by increased hiring costs to ensure worker safety. Instead, the effects appear to be driven by a reduction in the most visible forms of child work, suggesting that firms and parents (households) may have reduced employment of young children to minimize the risk of being subject to legal and social sanctions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103387
This study quantifies the effects of increasing the share of low-emission passenger vehicles on urban air quality in China. We estimate a two-stage least squares model, using the phased implementation of National Vehicle Emission Standards VI in 2019 as an instrumental variable for fleet composition. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in the share of vehicles compliant with the stricter vehicle exhaust standards leads to a 0.083% reduction in the average pollutant concentration across three measures of air pollution. Furthermore, our calculation suggests that the monetized health benefits from reductions in particulate matter outweigh the costs of adhering to stricter exhaust standards by a factor of two.
本研究量化了提高低排放乘用车比例对中国城市空气质量的影响。我们采用两阶段最小二乘法模型进行估计，将 2019 年分阶段实施的国家汽车尾气排放标准 VI 作为车队组成的工具变量。我们的研究结果表明，符合更严格汽车尾气排放标准的车辆比例每增加 1%，三种空气污染指标的平均污染物浓度就会降低 0.083%。此外，我们的计算表明，减少颗粒物所带来的货币化健康收益要比遵守更严格的排气标准的成本高出 2 倍。
{"title":"Vehicle exhaust standards and urban air quality in China","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantifies the effects of increasing the share of low-emission passenger vehicles on urban air quality in China. We estimate a two-stage least squares model, using the phased implementation of National Vehicle Emission Standards VI in 2019 as an instrumental variable for fleet composition. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in the share of vehicles compliant with the stricter vehicle exhaust standards leads to a 0.083% reduction in the average pollutant concentration across three measures of air pollution. Furthermore, our calculation suggests that the monetized health benefits from reductions in particulate matter outweigh the costs of adhering to stricter exhaust standards by a factor of two.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-16DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103388
A significant share of firms in developing countries is not registered for income taxation. Expanding the tax net is a priority for many governments, but most formalization policies proved relatively ineffective in bringing firms into the tax net. Drawing on rich tax administrative data, we document that snapshot-synchronizations of the business tax and the commercial registry in South Africa led to a large-scale expansion of the South African business taxpayer net. While the targeted firms are a valuable segment within the non-formal sector, we show that their post-registration tax compliance is weak and few of them pay taxes. Owing to the large scope of the tax net expansion, the aggregate revenue gains are, nevertheless, non-negligible and the interventions are fiscally cost-effective. In additional analyses, we provide evidence for enforcement spillovers: In areas where many firms were drawn into the tax net, tax registration timing compliance significantly improved after the snapshot synchronizations. We find no indication of a drop in registration numbers at the commercial registry.
{"title":"What you do (not) get when expanding the net - Evidence from forced taxpayer registrations in South Africa","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A significant share of firms in developing countries is not registered for income taxation. Expanding the tax net is a priority for many governments, but most formalization policies proved relatively ineffective in bringing firms into the tax net. Drawing on rich tax administrative data, we document that snapshot-synchronizations of the business tax and the commercial registry in South Africa led to a large-scale expansion of the South African business taxpayer net. While the targeted firms are a valuable segment within the non-formal sector, we show that their post-registration tax compliance is weak and few of them pay taxes. Owing to the large scope of the tax net expansion, the aggregate revenue gains are, nevertheless, non-negligible and the interventions are fiscally cost-effective. In additional analyses, we provide evidence for enforcement spillovers: In areas where many firms were drawn into the tax net, tax registration timing compliance significantly improved after the snapshot synchronizations. We find no indication of a drop in registration numbers at the commercial registry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103383
This paper studies the impact of electricity rationing on female employment during Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis, 2009–2015. Reduced access to electricity led to a decline in female employment as women left the workforce to become homemakers. The negative employment effect is specific to women and does not appear to be driven by changes in labor demand, involuntary unemployment, labor migration or fertility patterns. However, the decline in female employment is accompanied by a lower adoption of labor-saving electrical appliances. These findings suggest that electricity provision releases women from unpaid domestic work. Furthermore, they suggest that the quality of the electricity supply is vital for realizing the full benefits of electrification in developing countries.
{"title":"Electricity and female employment: Evidence from Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the impact of electricity rationing on female employment during Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis, 2009–2015. Reduced access to electricity led to a decline in female employment as women left the workforce to become homemakers. The negative employment effect is specific to women and does not appear to be driven by changes in labor demand, involuntary unemployment, labor migration or fertility patterns. However, the decline in female employment is accompanied by a lower adoption of labor-saving electrical appliances. These findings suggest that electricity provision releases women from unpaid domestic work. Furthermore, they suggest that the quality of the electricity supply is vital for realizing the full benefits of electrification in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103382
Many low- and middle-income countries lag far behind high-income countries in educational access and student learning. Policymakers must make tough choices about which investments to make to improve education with limited resources. Although hundreds of education interventions have been rigorously evaluated, making comparisons between the results is challenging. This paper provides the most recent and comprehensive review of the literature on effective education programs, with a novel emphasis on cost-effectiveness. We analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions from over 200 impact evaluations across 52 countries. We use a unified measure — learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) — that combines access and quality and compares gains to an absolute, cross-country standard. The results identify programs and policies that can be up to an order of magnitude more cost-effective than business-as-usual approaches. Examples of some of the most cost-effective approaches include targeting instruction to students’ learning level rather than grade as well as structured pedagogy approaches. These results can enable policymakers to improve education outcomes substantially more efficiently.
{"title":"How to improve education outcomes most efficiently? A review of the evidence using a unified metric","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many low- and middle-income countries lag far behind high-income countries in educational access and student learning. Policymakers must make tough choices about which investments to make to improve education with limited resources. Although hundreds of education interventions have been rigorously evaluated, making comparisons between the results is challenging. This paper provides the most recent and comprehensive review of the literature on effective education programs, with a novel emphasis on cost-effectiveness. We analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions from over 200 impact evaluations across 52 countries. We use a unified measure — learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) — that combines access and quality and compares gains to an absolute, cross-country standard. The results identify programs and policies that can be up to an order of magnitude more cost-effective than business-as-usual approaches. Examples of some of the most cost-effective approaches include targeting instruction to students’ learning level rather than grade as well as structured pedagogy approaches. These results can enable policymakers to improve education outcomes substantially more efficiently.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-10DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103385
This paper presents a methodology for predicting poverty using semi-supervised learning techniques, specifically pseudo-labeling, and deep learning algorithms. Standard poverty prediction models rely on limited household survey data, whereas our approach exploits large amounts of unlabeled census data to improve prediction accuracy. By applying pseudo-labeling, we improve key performance metrics across various African regions, where our models outperform conventional approaches to identifying poor individuals. Deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on pseudo-labeled data exhibited area under the curve (AUC) scores ranging from 0.8 to over 0.9, a notable improvement over previous machine learning survey-based methods. Furthermore, random undersampling was key to refining model performance, balancing higher coverage with some reduction in precision. These findings have significant implications for poverty targeting, enabling more accurate identification of poor individuals and supporting better resource allocation.
{"title":"Combining survey and census data for improved poverty prediction using semi-supervised deep learning","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a methodology for predicting poverty using semi-supervised learning techniques, specifically pseudo-labeling, and deep learning algorithms. Standard poverty prediction models rely on limited household survey data, whereas our approach exploits large amounts of unlabeled census data to improve prediction accuracy. By applying pseudo-labeling, we improve key performance metrics across various African regions, where our models outperform conventional approaches to identifying poor individuals. Deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on pseudo-labeled data exhibited area under the curve (AUC) scores ranging from 0.8 to over 0.9, a notable improvement over previous machine learning survey-based methods. Furthermore, random undersampling was key to refining model performance, balancing higher coverage with some reduction in precision. These findings have significant implications for poverty targeting, enabling more accurate identification of poor individuals and supporting better resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142440901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103384
Theoretically, it is unclear whether group loans outperform individual loans in terms of delinquency, especially during a crisis. It is difficult to test the hypothesis due to differences in the types of borrowers of the group and individual loans and likely differences in their behavior between crises and normal times. We overcome the challenge by comparing simultaneous group and individual loans of the same individual before and during the Covid-19 crisis in India. We find that the delinquency rate of group loans is significantly lower. Further tests suggestively indicate that the outperformance is due to the “peer pressure” channel.
{"title":"Does social capital positively influence loan performance even during a crisis?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Theoretically, it is unclear whether group loans outperform individual loans in terms of delinquency, especially during a crisis. It is difficult to test the hypothesis due to differences in the types of borrowers of the group and individual loans and likely differences in their behavior between crises and normal times. We overcome the challenge by comparing simultaneous group and individual loans of the same individual before and during the Covid-19 crisis in India. We find that the delinquency rate of group loans is significantly lower. Further tests suggestively indicate that the outperformance is due to the “peer pressure” channel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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