Pub Date : 2025-02-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470
Thang Dang
Exploiting a policy reform mandating participation in a 300-h language training course in Norway, I investigate the multigenerational health effects of a comprehensive language training program. I document the significant positive impacts of the program, not only on the long-term integration of refugees into the healthcare system but also on the health of the next generation. The program improves the cumulative use of primary care services for 12 years after arrival by 44%. This increase is proposed to partially work through refugees’ increased labor market attachment and economic success. The program also results in spillover benefits for the health at birth of the children of refugees with 21–49% decreases in premature birth, low birth weight, and short birth length. These intergenerational effects probably operate via significant improvements in the home environment and maternal care during pregnancy.
{"title":"Language training, refugees' healthcare integration, and the next generation's health","authors":"Thang Dang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103470","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Exploiting a policy reform mandating participation in a 300-h language training course in Norway, I investigate the multigenerational health effects of a comprehensive language training program. I document the significant positive impacts of the program, not only on the long-term integration of refugees into the healthcare system but also on the health of the next generation. The program improves the cumulative use of primary care services for 12 years after arrival by 44%. This increase is proposed to partially work through refugees’ increased labor market attachment and economic success. The program also results in spillover benefits for the health at birth of the children of refugees with 21–49% decreases in premature birth, low birth weight, and short birth length. These intergenerational effects probably operate via significant improvements in the home environment and maternal care during pregnancy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103470"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143444530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103465
Benjamin Crost , Joseph H. Felter , Yoko Yamasaki
Some types of economic activities exacerbate civil conflict while others mitigate it, but there is little systematic evidence on how characteristics of an activity determine its effect on conflict. We provide such evidence by analyzing how movements in the prices of 26 agricultural commodities, comprising 84 percent of total agricultural output, affect conflict in the Philippines. We find that increases in the value of labor-intensive commodities lead to larger reductions (or smaller increases) in conflict, consistent with an opportunity cost mechanism. Increases in the value of commodities produced by a small number of large farms lead to larger increases (or smaller reductions) in conflict, consistent with the hypothesis that concentrated markets are more easily taxed by armed groups. Our approach allows us to quantify the trade-off between different characteristics of an economic activity, providing guidelines on the types of activities a conflict-sensitive development strategy can safely promote.
{"title":"Labor intensity, market structure, and the effect of economic activities on civil conflict","authors":"Benjamin Crost , Joseph H. Felter , Yoko Yamasaki","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103465","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103465","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some types of economic activities exacerbate civil conflict while others mitigate it, but there is little systematic evidence on how characteristics of an activity determine its effect on conflict. We provide such evidence by analyzing how movements in the prices of 26 agricultural commodities, comprising 84 percent of total agricultural output, affect conflict in the Philippines. We find that increases in the value of labor-intensive commodities lead to larger reductions (or smaller increases) in conflict, consistent with an opportunity cost mechanism. Increases in the value of commodities produced by a small number of large farms lead to larger increases (or smaller reductions) in conflict, consistent with the hypothesis that concentrated markets are more easily taxed by armed groups. Our approach allows us to quantify the trade-off between different characteristics of an economic activity, providing guidelines on the types of activities a conflict-sensitive development strategy can safely promote.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103465"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467
Tevin Tafese , Jann Lay , Van Tran
Vietnam's deep integration into GVCs has been driven by the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs). This paper examines the local labour market impacts of this SEZ programme. We trace the built-up area of SEZs over time to construct a novel continuous measure of SEZ exposure using historical satellite imagery. In a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment, we examine the impact of SEZ exposure on local labour market outcomes at the district-level for the period 2009–2019. We find that the expansion of SEZs has led to a rapid shift in employment from own-account and family work in agriculture to manufacturing in foreign firms. We also show that SEZ exposure leads to higher wages and more formal employment contracts. Earnings improvements are not confined to workers in foreign manufacturing firms, but spill over to workers in household businesses and domestic firms. The effects on women account for most of these impacts.
{"title":"From fields to factories: Special economic zones, foreign direct investment, and labour markets in Vietnam","authors":"Tevin Tafese , Jann Lay , Van Tran","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103467","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Vietnam's deep integration into GVCs has been driven by the establishment of special economic zones (SEZs). This paper examines the local labour market impacts of this SEZ programme. We trace the built-up area of SEZs over time to construct a novel continuous measure of SEZ exposure using historical satellite imagery. In a difference-in-differences design with continuous treatment, we examine the impact of SEZ exposure on local labour market outcomes at the district-level for the period 2009–2019. We find that the expansion of SEZs has led to a rapid shift in employment from own-account and family work in agriculture to manufacturing in foreign firms. We also show that SEZ exposure leads to higher wages and more formal employment contracts. Earnings improvements are not confined to workers in foreign manufacturing firms, but spill over to workers in household businesses and domestic firms. The effects on women account for most of these impacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103467"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143386534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103462
Oscar Barriga-Cabanillas , Joshua E. Blumenstock , Travis J. Lybbert , Daniel S. Putman
A series of recent papers demonstrate that mobile phone metadata can, together with machine learning, estimate the wealth of individual subscribers and accurately target cash transfer programs. In the context of an emergency cash transfer program in Haiti, we combine surveys and mobile phone call detail records (CDR) to test whether such methods can be used to estimate the program’s impact on household expenditures. We find that CDR-based predictions of total and food expenditures are much less accurate than predictions of wealth—particularly when estimated on a relatively homogeneous sample of rural communities eligible for the program. While impact estimates based on conventional survey data are positive and statistically significant, estimates based on CDR predictions are not statistically significant. In a postmortem discussion, we assess reasons for this failure and discuss the implications for using big data in poverty measurement and impact evaluation.
{"title":"Probing the limits of mobile phone metadata for poverty prediction and impact evaluation","authors":"Oscar Barriga-Cabanillas , Joshua E. Blumenstock , Travis J. Lybbert , Daniel S. Putman","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103462","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103462","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A series of recent papers demonstrate that mobile phone metadata can, together with machine learning, estimate the wealth of individual subscribers and accurately target cash transfer programs. In the context of an emergency cash transfer program in Haiti, we combine surveys and mobile phone call detail records (CDR) to test whether such methods can be used to estimate the program’s impact on household expenditures. We find that CDR-based predictions of total and food expenditures are much less accurate than predictions of wealth—particularly when estimated on a relatively homogeneous sample of rural communities eligible for the program. While impact estimates based on conventional survey data are positive and statistically significant, estimates based on CDR predictions are not statistically significant. In a postmortem discussion, we assess reasons for this failure and discuss the implications for using big data in poverty measurement and impact evaluation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103462"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143421875","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103466
Nina Jovanovic , Jacob Ricker-Gilbert
Farmers' adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average.
{"title":"Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia","authors":"Nina Jovanovic , Jacob Ricker-Gilbert","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103466","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103466","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Farmers' adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103466"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143369655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103464
Douglas Kazibwe , Jinhu Li
We evaluate the long-term effects of Uganda’s 2007 Universal Secondary Education (USE) policy, which expanded secondary education access through tuition-fee elimination and increased school capacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit variations in birth cohorts and regional exposure to identify the policy’s causal impacts on women’s educational attainment and empowerment. Our results show significant gains in education and empowerment for women in areas with greater program intensity. We also find improvements in women’s labour market outcomes, and in marriage and fertility including delayed age at first sex, birth, cohabitation, and spouse schooling differences. These findings highlight the potential for governments in sub-Saharan Africa to leverage secondary education investments in generating sustained improvement in women’s empowerment.
{"title":"Universal secondary education, schooling and women ’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda","authors":"Douglas Kazibwe , Jinhu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103464","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103464","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We evaluate the long-term effects of Uganda’s 2007 Universal Secondary Education (USE) policy, which expanded secondary education access through tuition-fee elimination and increased school capacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we exploit variations in birth cohorts and regional exposure to identify the policy’s causal impacts on women’s educational attainment and empowerment. Our results show significant gains in education and empowerment for women in areas with greater program intensity. We also find improvements in women’s labour market outcomes, and in marriage and fertility including delayed age at first sex, birth, cohabitation, and spouse schooling differences. These findings highlight the potential for governments in sub-Saharan Africa to leverage secondary education investments in generating sustained improvement in women’s empowerment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103464"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143348786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103451
Yen-Chien Chen , Elliott Fan , Yu-Hsin Ho , Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee , Jin-Tan Liu
Despite the shared Confucian culture and economic development trajectories, women in Taiwan currently enjoy a much greater socio-economic status than their counterparts in South Korea and Japan. This study investigates a potential factor contributing to this striking difference: the reserved seats for women in Taiwan’s local councils. The quota assignment rule creates a ‘zigzag’ proportional function of female councilors, providing a unique estimation opportunity. We find that exposure to female political leadership decreases the likelihood of mothers with two daughters opting for a third child, whereas no such an effect is observed among mothers with two children of other sex compositions, indicating attenuation in son preference. Additionally, we find that the gender quota encourages married women to take on a more active role in household decisions, and motivates female students to pursue a college major in law and political science, fields conducive to political involvement. These gender-specific effects lend support to the hypothesis that female political leaders serve as role models, enticing more egalitarian gender attitudes among women.
{"title":"The impact of female political leadership on gender attitudes: Evidence from Taiwan’s local councils","authors":"Yen-Chien Chen , Elliott Fan , Yu-Hsin Ho , Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee , Jin-Tan Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103451","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103451","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite the shared Confucian culture and economic development trajectories, women in Taiwan currently enjoy a much greater socio-economic status than their counterparts in South Korea and Japan. This study investigates a potential factor contributing to this striking difference: the reserved seats for women in Taiwan’s local councils. The quota assignment rule creates a ‘zigzag’ proportional function of female councilors, providing a unique estimation opportunity. We find that exposure to female political leadership decreases the likelihood of mothers with two daughters opting for a third child, whereas no such an effect is observed among mothers with two children of other sex compositions, indicating attenuation in son preference. Additionally, we find that the gender quota encourages married women to take on a more active role in household decisions, and motivates female students to pursue a college major in law and political science, fields conducive to political involvement. These gender-specific effects lend support to the hypothesis that female political leaders serve as role models, enticing more egalitarian gender attitudes among women.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103451"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143157244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103458
Philip Keefer , Razvan Vlaicu
This paper addresses voter incentives for political engagement in developing countries, using self-collected experimental and quasi-experimental survey data. Does voting eligibility create intrinsic incentives to become engaged and informed, or do voters remain rationally ignorant and apathetic? What motivations underlie political interest? Are voters knowledgeable about policy issues debated during election campaigns? To address these questions, we fielded a survey of high school seniors across thirty Mexican campuses a few weeks prior to a major general election. Age-based regression discontinuity indicates that the just-eligible measure higher on political motivation and actions than the just-ineligible. One survey experiment shows that information about the potential magnitude of the youth vote increases eligible respondents’ political interest in ways consistent with social incentives. In the second experiment, information about current policy challenges affects eligible respondents’ policy priorities less than the ineligible, reflecting eligibles’ pre-existing knowledge about salient policy issues.
{"title":"Voting age, information experiments, and political engagement: Evidence from a general election","authors":"Philip Keefer , Razvan Vlaicu","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103458","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103458","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses voter incentives for political engagement in developing countries, using self-collected experimental and quasi-experimental survey data. Does voting eligibility create intrinsic incentives to become engaged and informed, or do voters remain rationally ignorant and apathetic? What motivations underlie political interest? Are voters knowledgeable about policy issues debated during election campaigns? To address these questions, we fielded a survey of high school seniors across thirty Mexican campuses a few weeks prior to a major general election. Age-based regression discontinuity indicates that the just-eligible measure higher on political motivation and actions than the just-ineligible. One survey experiment shows that information about the potential magnitude of the youth vote increases eligible respondents’ political interest in ways consistent with social incentives. In the second experiment, information about current policy challenges affects eligible respondents’ policy priorities less than the ineligible, reflecting eligibles’ pre-existing knowledge about salient policy issues.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103458"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143156176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103459
Michel Armel Ndayikeza
Across low-income countries, limited prospects for high-skill employment and poverty push numerous college graduates into jobs which do not require a college degree. These types of experiences may be advantageous or detracting for the new graduates. To examine this issue, we conducted a field experiment in Burundi which elicited preferences of employers with respect to low-skill job experience of recent college graduates. We estimate the impact of signaling various types of low-skill experiences, such as working as a phone credit sales agent, a waiter, a security guard and other positions that do not necessitate a college degree, on the hiring interest of employers in a high-skill job. Results indicate that mentioning a low-skill experience on a resume increases by approximately 10% the hiring interest of employers. Furthermore, employers prefer job seekers with low-skill experience rather than individuals with no experience at all, irrespective of the quality of the job seeker.
{"title":"Underemployment of college graduates: is doing anything better than doing nothing?","authors":"Michel Armel Ndayikeza","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103459","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103459","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Across low-income countries, limited prospects for high-skill employment and poverty push numerous college graduates into jobs which do not require a college degree. These types of experiences may be advantageous or detracting for the new graduates. To examine this issue, we conducted a field experiment in Burundi which elicited preferences of employers with respect to low-skill job experience of recent college graduates. We estimate the impact of signaling various types of low-skill experiences, such as working as a phone credit sales agent, a waiter, a security guard and other positions that do not necessitate a college degree, on the hiring interest of employers in a high-skill job. Results indicate that mentioning a low-skill experience on a resume increases by approximately 10% the hiring interest of employers. Furthermore, employers prefer job seekers with low-skill experience rather than individuals with no experience at all, irrespective of the quality of the job seeker.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103459"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143157207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103453
Gustav Agneman , Christoffer Cappelen , Kasper Brandt , David Sjöberg
The ability of states to exercise authority often varies considerably within their borders, yet we lack reliable empirical measures of the uneven reach of states. In this paper, we develop a methodology to predict state presence at granular spatial resolutions and demonstrate the approach using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We link a range of indicators of state presence, e.g., infrastructural data, with geolocated survey data of residents’ experiences with subnational governance. Then, we employ a machine learning algorithm that learns how the input variables relate to experienced state presence and extrapolates the predictions to all of Sub-Saharan Africa. We validate the predicted measure through a range of tests and document how local state presence influences development outcomes.
{"title":"The uneven reach of the state: A novel approach to mapping local state presence","authors":"Gustav Agneman , Christoffer Cappelen , Kasper Brandt , David Sjöberg","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103453","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ability of states to exercise authority often varies considerably within their borders, yet we lack reliable empirical measures of the uneven reach of states. In this paper, we develop a methodology to predict state presence at granular spatial resolutions and demonstrate the approach using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We link a range of indicators of state presence, e.g., infrastructural data, with geolocated survey data of residents’ experiences with subnational governance. Then, we employ a machine learning algorithm that learns how the input variables relate to experienced state presence and extrapolates the predictions to all of Sub-Saharan Africa. We validate the predicted measure through a range of tests and document how local state presence influences development outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 103453"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143377384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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