Protecting alpine biodiversity in the Middle East from climate change: Implications for high-elevation birds

IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Diversity and Distributions Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1111/ddi.13826
Mohsen Ahmadi, Muhammad Ali Nawaz, Hamed Asadi, Mahmoud-Reza Hemami, Morteza Naderi, Mahyat Shafapourtehrany, Farzin Shabani
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Abstract

Aims

The Middle East, located in the arid belt of the Earth, is home to a diverse range of biodiversity, with its mountain ecosystems being the most important centres of species diversity and endemism. In this study, the impact of climate change on alpine bird species in the Middle East was assessed across five mountain systems: Alborz–Kopet-Dagh, Caucasus–Pontic, Levant–Taurus, Sarawat–Hijaz and Zagros–Central Iran.

Location

Middle East.

Methods

Using species distribution models (SDMs), 38 native alpine bird species were analysed under different climate change scenarios. We also identified future multispecies in situ and ex situ climate refugia and assessed the efficiency of the current protected areas (PAs) system in protecting them.

Results

The results indicated that, on average, habitat suitability for these species is projected to decline by 36.83% (2050, SSP2-4.5) to 60.10% (2070, SSP5-8.5) with an upward range shift. Based on stacking range change of the species, Levant–Taurus, Zagros–Central Iran and Alborz–Kopet–Dagh mountain ranges will experience the highest amount of habitat loss, respectively, with Caucasus–Pontic being least affected. The gap analysis showed that the existing PAs system covers only 13% and 10% of the in situ and ex situ climatic refugia, respectively.

Conclusions

Our findings underscore the significance of mountainous regions in the Middle East for the persistence of alpine bird species and the urgent need to prioritize climate refugia in transboundary and participatory conservation plans. It is crucial to prevent habitat degradation and alteration resulting from human activities in these areas to ensure the persistence of alpine species and their habitats.

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保护中东高山生物多样性免受气候变化影响:对高海拔鸟类的影响
目的位于地球干旱带的中东地区拥有多种多样的生物多样性,其中山区生态系统是最重要的物种多样性和特有性中心。本研究评估了气候变化对中东五个山区系统中高山鸟类物种的影响:地点中东。方法利用物种分布模型(SDM),分析了不同气候变化情景下 38 种本地高山鸟类物种。结果结果表明,平均而言,这些物种的栖息地适宜性预计将下降 36.83%(2050 年,SSP2-4.5)至 60.10%(2070 年,SSP5-8.5),分布范围将上移。根据物种分布范围的叠加变化,黎凡特-陶鲁士山脉、扎格罗斯山脉-伊朗中部山脉和阿尔伯兹-科佩特-达赫山脉的栖息地丧失量将分别最大,而高加索-波罗的海山脉受到的影响最小。差距分析表明,现有的保护区系统仅分别覆盖了 13% 和 10% 的原地和非原地气候避难所。结论我们的研究结果强调了中东山区对高山鸟类物种生存的重要性,以及在跨境和参与性保护计划中优先考虑气候避难所的迫切需要。关键是要防止人类活动导致这些地区的栖息地退化和改变,以确保高山物种及其栖息地的持续存在。
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来源期刊
Diversity and Distributions
Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
195
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.
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