Spatiotemporal variations of UTCI based discomfort over India

IF 1.3 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of Earth System Science Pub Date : 2024-03-02 DOI:10.1007/s12040-024-02261-y

Pravat Rabi Naskar, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Gyan Prakash Singh, Umasankar Das

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Abstract

We have attempted to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and fluctuations in summer thermal heat stress/discomfort over the Indian region-based universal thermal climate index (UTCI) in this study. We have calculated UTCI using hourly ERA5 data of 10 m wind speed, 2 m air temperature, 2 m dew point temperature, and solar radiation for the period 1990–2020. To determine the effect of radiation fluxes and soil moisture on temperature and UTCI, we have used ERA5 data on cloud fraction (CF), surface heat fluxes (SLHF and SSHF), and soil moisture (SM) for the study period. Maximum heating and discomfort have been reported in May for most of the regions. Except for the west region, the progress of the monsoon provides some relief in June. Maximum discomfort is observed around 08–09Z. We have observed over 50% of India experiencing a decreasing trend in UTCI in different summer months despite over 50% of India experiencing an increasing trend in temperature. This is due to the influence of factors such as solar radiation, cloudiness, wind speed, soil moisture, etc., on UTCI. The UTCI in summer months demonstrates spatial heterogeneity. UTCI increases significantly in the west region in April and the east region in June. In April and May, some portions of the South-Central region, particularly Maharashtra, exhibit an increasing trend in UTCI. The majority of the North-Central region has a noticeable decreasing tendency in UTCI in all the summer months. We have not found any significant trend in the frequency of days with ‘very high heat stress’ or higher discomfort. Except in the eastern region, there is no noticeable trend in the frequency of discomfort hours with UTCI in the ranges 38 < UTCI < 46°C and UTCI > 46°C. The Eastern region exhibits an increasing trend in the frequency of discomfort hours with UTCI in the range of 38 < UTCI < 46°C in April. The Eastern region has a rising trend in the frequency of discomfort hours, with UTCI in the range of 38 < UTCI < 46°C in April.

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印度上空基于 UTCI 的不适感时空变化

在这项研究中，我们试图研究印度地区夏季热应力/热舒适度的时空模式和波动，其基础是全球热气候指数（UTCI）。我们使用 1990-2020 年期间每小时 10 米风速、2 米气温、2 米露点温度和太阳辐射的ERA5 数据计算了UTCI。为了确定辐射通量和土壤湿度对温度和 UTCI 的影响，我们使用了研究期间ERA5 的云量（CF）、地表热通量（SLHF 和 SSHF）和土壤湿度（SM）数据。据报道，大部分地区在 5 月份出现了最严重的升温和不适现象。除西部地区外，季风的进展在 6 月份有所缓解。最大的不适感出现在 08-09Z 附近。我们观察到，尽管印度 50%以上的地区气温呈上升趋势，但在不同的夏季月份，UTCI 呈下降趋势。这是由于太阳辐射、云量、风速、土壤湿度等因素对 UTCI 的影响。夏季的 UTCI 显示出空间异质性。4 月西部地区的 UTCI 明显增加，6 月东部地区的 UTCI 明显增加。在 4 月和 5 月，中南部的一些地区，特别是马哈拉施特拉邦，UTCI 呈上升趋势。中北部大部分地区在所有夏季月份的 UTCI 都呈明显下降趋势。我们没有发现 "酷热压力 "或不适感较高的天数频率有任何明显的趋势。除东部地区外，UTCI 在 38 < UTCI < 46°C 和 UTCI > 46°C 范围内的不适小时频率没有明显趋势。东部地区在四月份UTCI在38 < UTCI < 46°C范围内的不适小时数呈上升趋势。东部地区的不舒适小时数呈上升趋势，四月份的UTCI在38 < UTCI < 46°C之间。

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来源期刊

Journal of Earth System Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

226

期刊介绍： The Journal of Earth System Science, an International Journal, was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed ‘Journal of Earth System Science’. The journal is highly inter-disciplinary and publishes scholarly research – new data, ideas, and conceptual advances – in Earth System Science. The focus is on the evolution of the Earth as a system: manuscripts describing changes of anthropogenic origin in a limited region are not considered unless they go beyond describing the changes to include an analysis of earth-system processes. The journal''s scope includes the solid earth (geosphere), the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (including cryosphere), and the biosphere; it also addresses related aspects of planetary and space sciences. Contributions pertaining to the Indian sub- continent and the surrounding Indian-Ocean region are particularly welcome. Given that a large number of manuscripts report either observations or model results for a limited domain, manuscripts intended for publication in JESS are expected to fulfill at least one of the following three criteria. The data should be of relevance and should be of statistically significant size and from a region from where such data are sparse. If the data are from a well-sampled region, the data size should be considerable and advance our knowledge of the region. A model study is carried out to explain observations reported either in the same manuscript or in the literature. The analysis, whether of data or with models, is novel and the inferences advance the current knowledge.