Race and democratic decline in the United States: How minority population growth affects election administration

Abstract

ObjectivesWe ask whether counties with growing black and Latino populations have reduced the number of poll workers and polling sites. We argue that the association between changing racial demographics and election infrastructure has been exacerbated by the release of certain jurisdictions from the Voting Rights Act's (VRA) “preclearance” requirement under Section 5.MethodsRelying on data from the 2016 and 2018 Election Administration and Voting Survey and demographic data from the American Community Survey, we conduct a multilevel linear regression on a sample of roughly 4000 counties.ResultsWe find that counties respond to changes in the Latino population, though not changes in the black population, by reducing access to election resources. This relationship is especially pronounced in areas formerly covered by Section 5 of the VRA.ConclusionsGiven the importance of polling places and workers for in‐person voting, our findings raise serious concerns for racial equality in election access and influence.