Investigating climate and land use change impacts on design flood estimation over Indian tropical catchments

IF 1.1 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 ECOLOGY Tropical Ecology Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI:10.1007/s42965-024-00323-2
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Abstract

Land use and climate change studies have emerged as a critical component of current natural resource management and environmental monitoring strategies. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) have proven to be instrumental in assessing and analysing changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and understanding the climate dynamics. In this study, a decadal analysis of annual maximum rainfall, LULC changes, and in turn, design runoff, is carried out to investigate the impact of the above factors on extreme events in the tropical basins of India. To this end, daily rainfall data from the year 1980 to 2019, LULC maps of 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015 for four catchments of Mahanadi Basin and six catchments of Godavari Basin are utilized to estimate 50-year, 100-year and 200-year design rainfall, and in turn, design runoff, from four different decades, viz, 1980–89, 1990–99, 2000–09 and 2010–19. The design rainfall is estimated after fitting suitable distributions on the respective decadal rainfall series while the design runoff is estimated using the popular Natural Resources Conservation Service-Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method. Results showed that the decadal mean of annual maximum rainfall series increased from 1980–89 to 1990–99 and from 1990–99 to 2000–09 in seven out of ten catchments but declined in most catchments from the period 2000–09 to 2010–19, which indicates the dynamic nature of rainfall patterns over the tropical basins and highlights the importance of considering climate dynamics for hydrologic design purposes. Also, an increase in CN values from 1985 to 2015 in most of the catchments is mainly due to increased urbanization and reduced forest lands. This indicates intensification of runoff potential, which may lead to increased flood risk, soil erosion, and water quality degradation. The inferences from the study will aid policymakers in designing appropriate policies like sustainable land use practices, rainwater harvesting, and afforestation to ensure the well-being of communities in the face of changing climate and land use.

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调查气候和土地利用变化对印度热带流域设计洪水估算的影响
摘要 土地利用和气候变化研究已成为当前自然资源管理和环境监测战略的重要组成部分。事实证明,遥感和地理信息系统(GIS)有助于评估和分析土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)的变化以及了解气候动态。本研究对年最大降雨量、土地利用、土地覆被变化以及设计径流进行了十年期分析,以研究上述因素对印度热带盆地极端事件的影响。为此,我们利用 1980 年至 2019 年的日降雨量数据,以及 1985 年、1995 年、2005 年和 2015 年 Mahanadi 盆地四个集水区和 Godavari 盆地六个集水区的 LULC 地图,估算了 50 年、100 年和 200 年的设计降雨量,进而估算了 1980-89 年、1990-99 年、2000-09 年和 2010-19 年四个不同年份的设计径流量。设计降雨量是在对相应的十年降雨量序列进行适当拟合后估算得出的,而设计径流量则是采用常用的自然资源保护局-曲线编号法(NRCS-CN)估算得出的。结果显示,在 1980-89 年至 1990-99 年以及 1990-99 年至 2000-09 年期间,10 个流域中有 7 个流域的年最大降雨量序列的十年平均值有所增加,但在 2000-09 年至 2010-19 年期间,大多数流域的年最大降雨量序列的十年平均值有所下降,这表明了热带盆地降雨模式的动态性质,并突出了考虑气候动态对水文设计的重要性。此外,从 1985 年到 2015 年,大多数流域的 CN 值都有所增加,这主要是由于城市化进程加快和林地减少所致。这表明径流潜势加剧,可能导致洪水风险增加、土壤侵蚀和水质恶化。这项研究的推论将有助于政策制定者制定适当的政策,如可持续土地利用实践、雨水收集和植树造林,以确保社区在面对不断变化的气候和土地利用时的福祉。
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来源期刊
Tropical Ecology
Tropical Ecology ECOLOGY-
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
71
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Tropical Ecology is devoted to all aspects of fundamental and applied ecological research in tropical and sub-tropical ecosystems. Nevertheless, the cutting-edge research in new ecological concepts, methodology and reviews on contemporary themes, not necessarily confined to tropics and sub-tropics, may also be considered for publication at the discretion of the Editor-in-Chief. Areas of current interest include: Biological diversity and its management; Conservation and restoration ecology; Human ecology; Ecological economics; Ecosystem structure and functioning; Ecosystem services; Ecosystem sustainability; Stress and disturbance ecology; Ecology of global change; Ecological modeling; Evolutionary ecology; Quantitative ecology; and Social ecology. The Journal Tropical Ecology features a distinguished editorial board, working on various ecological aspects of tropical and sub-tropical systems from diverse continents. Tropical Ecology publishes: · Original research papers · Short communications · Reviews and Mini-reviews on topical themes · Scientific correspondence · Book Reviews
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