Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean

Abstract

Observed Arctic sea ice losses are a sentinel of anthropogenic climate change. These reductions are projected to continue with ongoing warming, ultimately leading to an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2). In this Review, we synthesize understanding of the timing and regional variability of such an ice-free Arctic. In the September monthly mean, the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4 years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10 years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067), with emission trajectories determining how often and for how long the Arctic could be ice free. Specifically, there is potential for ice-free conditions in May–January and August–October by 2100 under a high-emission and low-emission scenario, respectively. In all cases, sea ice losses begin in the European Arctic, proceed to the Pacific Arctic and end in the Central Arctic, if becoming ice free at all. Future research must assess the impact of model selection and recalibration on projections, and assess the drivers of internal variability that can cause early ice-free conditions. With continued anthropogenic warming, an ice-free Arctic (sea ice area <1 million km2) is inevitable. This Review outlines the various characteristics of an ice-free Arctic, highlighting that future emission trajectories will determine where, how frequently and how long the Arctic will be ice free each year.