Pub Date : 2025-11-27DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00749-9
Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, Isla R. Simpson, Tim Woollings
The eddy-driven jet streams, which are regions of strong westerly wind in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, exert a leading influence on regional climate. In this Review, we outline the seasonally and regionally varying drivers, characteristics and changes in the jet streams. State-of-the-art models commonly predict a future polewards shift of the zonal-mean and annual-mean jet streams, typically ranging between 0° and 2° latitude by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario, but with large model-to-model uncertainty. Furthermore, regional and seasonal projections can deviate substantially from the annual-mean and zonal-mean picture, and the drivers of these projected changes are not fully understood. Jet trends have emerged in the reanalysis record since 1979, of which a polewards shift of the summertime austral jet of ~0.3° per decade is the trend most clearly attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Although other trends have been observed, potentially large internal variability and incomplete understanding of the drivers of these trends precludes clear anthropogenic attribution at this point. Research is unevenly distributed across regions and seasons, with winter receiving the most attention, particularly in the North Atlantic. To support physical understanding and impact assessments, future research should provide a more complete picture of the seasonally and regionally varying jet stream drivers, and their changes, especially in spring and autumn. Eddy-driven jet streams have a strong influence on regional climate. This Review explores the seasonality and regional characteristics of mid-latitude eddy-driven jets, as well as the drivers influencing jet climatology and projected jet stream changes under continued anthropogenic climate change.
{"title":"Seasonal and regional jet stream changes and drivers","authors":"Philipp Breul, Paulo Ceppi, Isla R. Simpson, Tim Woollings","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00749-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00749-9","url":null,"abstract":"The eddy-driven jet streams, which are regions of strong westerly wind in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, exert a leading influence on regional climate. In this Review, we outline the seasonally and regionally varying drivers, characteristics and changes in the jet streams. State-of-the-art models commonly predict a future polewards shift of the zonal-mean and annual-mean jet streams, typically ranging between 0° and 2° latitude by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario, but with large model-to-model uncertainty. Furthermore, regional and seasonal projections can deviate substantially from the annual-mean and zonal-mean picture, and the drivers of these projected changes are not fully understood. Jet trends have emerged in the reanalysis record since 1979, of which a polewards shift of the summertime austral jet of ~0.3° per decade is the trend most clearly attributable to anthropogenic forcing. Although other trends have been observed, potentially large internal variability and incomplete understanding of the drivers of these trends precludes clear anthropogenic attribution at this point. Research is unevenly distributed across regions and seasons, with winter receiving the most attention, particularly in the North Atlantic. To support physical understanding and impact assessments, future research should provide a more complete picture of the seasonally and regionally varying jet stream drivers, and their changes, especially in spring and autumn. Eddy-driven jet streams have a strong influence on regional climate. This Review explores the seasonality and regional characteristics of mid-latitude eddy-driven jets, as well as the drivers influencing jet climatology and projected jet stream changes under continued anthropogenic climate change.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"824-842"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695658","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-25DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00740-4
Nick Pepin, Martha Apple, John Knowles, Silvia Terzago, Enrico Arnone, Lorenz Hänchen, Anna Napoli, Emily Potter, Jakob Steiner, Scott N. Williamson, Bodo Ahrens, Tanmay Dhar, A. P. Dimri, Elisa Palazzi, Arathi Rameshan, Nadine Salzmann, Maria Shahgedanova, João de Deus Vidal Jr, Dino Zardi
Mountain regions show rapid environmental changes under anthropogenic warming. The rates of these changes are often stratified by elevation, leading to elevation-dependent climate change (EDCC). In this Review, we examine evidence of systematic change in the elevation profiles of air temperature and precipitation (including snow). On a global scale, differences between mountain and lowland trends for temperature, precipitation and snowfall are 0.21 °C century–1 (enhanced mountain warming), –11.5 mm century–1 (enhanced mountain drying) and –25.6 mm century–1 (enhanced mountain snow loss), respectively, for 1980–2020, based on averaging available gridded datasets. Regional analyses sometimes show opposite trend patterns. This EDCC is primarily driven by changes in surface albedo, specific humidity and atmospheric aerosol concentrations. Throughout the twenty-first century, most models predict that enhanced warming in mountain regions will continue (at 0.13 °C century–1), but precipitation changes are less certain. Superimposed upon these global trends, EDCC patterns can vary substantially between mountain regions. Patterns in the Rockies and the Tibetan Plateau are more consistent with the global mean than other regions. In situ mountain observations are skewed towards low elevations, and understanding of EDCC is biased towards mid-latitudes. Efforts to address this uneven data distribution and to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of models of mountain processes are urgently needed to understand the impacts of EDCC on ecological and hydrological systems. Environmental changes in mountains often depend on elevation. This Review outlines how past and future temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends vary between mountains and lowlands across various mountain regions and discusses the drivers responsible.
{"title":"Elevation-dependent climate change in mountain environments","authors":"Nick Pepin, Martha Apple, John Knowles, Silvia Terzago, Enrico Arnone, Lorenz Hänchen, Anna Napoli, Emily Potter, Jakob Steiner, Scott N. Williamson, Bodo Ahrens, Tanmay Dhar, A. P. Dimri, Elisa Palazzi, Arathi Rameshan, Nadine Salzmann, Maria Shahgedanova, João de Deus Vidal Jr, Dino Zardi","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00740-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00740-4","url":null,"abstract":"Mountain regions show rapid environmental changes under anthropogenic warming. The rates of these changes are often stratified by elevation, leading to elevation-dependent climate change (EDCC). In this Review, we examine evidence of systematic change in the elevation profiles of air temperature and precipitation (including snow). On a global scale, differences between mountain and lowland trends for temperature, precipitation and snowfall are 0.21 °C century–1 (enhanced mountain warming), –11.5 mm century–1 (enhanced mountain drying) and –25.6 mm century–1 (enhanced mountain snow loss), respectively, for 1980–2020, based on averaging available gridded datasets. Regional analyses sometimes show opposite trend patterns. This EDCC is primarily driven by changes in surface albedo, specific humidity and atmospheric aerosol concentrations. Throughout the twenty-first century, most models predict that enhanced warming in mountain regions will continue (at 0.13 °C century–1), but precipitation changes are less certain. Superimposed upon these global trends, EDCC patterns can vary substantially between mountain regions. Patterns in the Rockies and the Tibetan Plateau are more consistent with the global mean than other regions. In situ mountain observations are skewed towards low elevations, and understanding of EDCC is biased towards mid-latitudes. Efforts to address this uneven data distribution and to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of models of mountain processes are urgently needed to understand the impacts of EDCC on ecological and hydrological systems. Environmental changes in mountains often depend on elevation. This Review outlines how past and future temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends vary between mountains and lowlands across various mountain regions and discusses the drivers responsible.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"772-788"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-18DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00736-0
Kathrin Menberg, Hannes Hemmerle, Peter Bayer, Christoph Bott, Asal Bidarmaghz, Grant Ferguson, Martin Bloemendal, Philipp Blum
Heat pumps, which transfer heat from one environment to another to provide heating and cooling, are considered a key technology for decarbonizing the building sector. However, geothermal heat pumps have been adopted slowly, owing to high investment costs and public distrust. In this Review, we discuss opportunities for sustainable and risk-conscious application of shallow geothermal energy (SGE) and identify suitable areas and outline the benefits and impacts of different SGE technologies. Globally, many regions have wide areas suitable for SGE, yet uptake rates remain low. For example, a third of Germany is hydrogeologically suitable for aquifer thermal energy storage systems, but only two systems were in operation in 2021. The environmental benefits of SGE are substantial, as greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by up to 88% in European Union countries compared with conventional thermal energy systems. Environmental impacts on groundwater quality and ecosystem functions are minor as SGE-induced temperature increases are typically in the range of 5–10 K. However, owing to the limited number of assessments, benefits and impacts of subsurface cooling remain largely unknown. Widespread and sustainable operation of SGE will require subsurface management with particular focus on infrastructure, drinking water quality and thermal alterations. Shallow geothermal energy can contribute to decarbonizing residential buildings. This Review explores which regions globally have high geothermal potential, outlining the benefits and impacts of different types of shallow geothermal energy systems.
{"title":"Opportunities, benefits and impacts of shallow geothermal energy","authors":"Kathrin Menberg, Hannes Hemmerle, Peter Bayer, Christoph Bott, Asal Bidarmaghz, Grant Ferguson, Martin Bloemendal, Philipp Blum","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00736-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00736-0","url":null,"abstract":"Heat pumps, which transfer heat from one environment to another to provide heating and cooling, are considered a key technology for decarbonizing the building sector. However, geothermal heat pumps have been adopted slowly, owing to high investment costs and public distrust. In this Review, we discuss opportunities for sustainable and risk-conscious application of shallow geothermal energy (SGE) and identify suitable areas and outline the benefits and impacts of different SGE technologies. Globally, many regions have wide areas suitable for SGE, yet uptake rates remain low. For example, a third of Germany is hydrogeologically suitable for aquifer thermal energy storage systems, but only two systems were in operation in 2021. The environmental benefits of SGE are substantial, as greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by up to 88% in European Union countries compared with conventional thermal energy systems. Environmental impacts on groundwater quality and ecosystem functions are minor as SGE-induced temperature increases are typically in the range of 5–10 K. However, owing to the limited number of assessments, benefits and impacts of subsurface cooling remain largely unknown. Widespread and sustainable operation of SGE will require subsurface management with particular focus on infrastructure, drinking water quality and thermal alterations. Shallow geothermal energy can contribute to decarbonizing residential buildings. This Review explores which regions globally have high geothermal potential, outlining the benefits and impacts of different types of shallow geothermal energy systems.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"808-823"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695655","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-11DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00734-2
Jinbo Zan, Barbara A. Maher, Xiaomin Fang, Thomas Stevens, Wenxiao Ning, Fuli Wu, Yibo Yang, Jian Kang, Zhe Hu
Windblown mineral dust is a nutrient source to the ocean, influencing global ocean productivity, ocean carbon uptake and climate. In this Review, we examine how dust emission fluxes, sources and compositions have changed over the past 7 Myr and consider the implications for ocean productivity. Since the Late Cenozoic, global cooling and orogenic uplift have enhanced dust emissions from major source regions and fluxes to downwind ocean basins, with the associated nutrient supply varying with dust origin. Glacially derived Asian dust contains higher concentrations of ferrous iron (typically exceeding 30% of the total iron) and phosphorus than the aged, highly oxidized mineral dust from North Africa, which has negligible ferrous iron content. Indeed, Asian dust has a notable influence on Pacific Ocean productivity and, potentially, climate. For example, Middle Pleistocene increases in the content of Asian dust Fe2+ (~45%) and P (~55%) coincided with a threefold to fivefold rise in glacial productivity in the South China Sea and a concurrent shift in phytoplankton ecology in the lower-latitude North Pacific. Therefore, decreasing glaciogenic dust–nutrient supply under continued global warming could notably impact ocean productivity, especially in the Pacific Ocean. Future research should focus on constraining the composition and bioavailability of dust-derived nutrients across a wide range of globally important dust sources so that dust composition and related feedbacks can be better parameterized in Earth system models. Aeolian dust deposition can deliver nutrients that fuel primary production in remote ocean regions. This Review considers how dust sources and nutrient composition, in addition to dust flux, have potentially impacted ocean productivity, carbon burial and climate over the past 7 Myr.
{"title":"Global dust impacts on biogeochemical cycles and climate","authors":"Jinbo Zan, Barbara A. Maher, Xiaomin Fang, Thomas Stevens, Wenxiao Ning, Fuli Wu, Yibo Yang, Jian Kang, Zhe Hu","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00734-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00734-2","url":null,"abstract":"Windblown mineral dust is a nutrient source to the ocean, influencing global ocean productivity, ocean carbon uptake and climate. In this Review, we examine how dust emission fluxes, sources and compositions have changed over the past 7 Myr and consider the implications for ocean productivity. Since the Late Cenozoic, global cooling and orogenic uplift have enhanced dust emissions from major source regions and fluxes to downwind ocean basins, with the associated nutrient supply varying with dust origin. Glacially derived Asian dust contains higher concentrations of ferrous iron (typically exceeding 30% of the total iron) and phosphorus than the aged, highly oxidized mineral dust from North Africa, which has negligible ferrous iron content. Indeed, Asian dust has a notable influence on Pacific Ocean productivity and, potentially, climate. For example, Middle Pleistocene increases in the content of Asian dust Fe2+ (~45%) and P (~55%) coincided with a threefold to fivefold rise in glacial productivity in the South China Sea and a concurrent shift in phytoplankton ecology in the lower-latitude North Pacific. Therefore, decreasing glaciogenic dust–nutrient supply under continued global warming could notably impact ocean productivity, especially in the Pacific Ocean. Future research should focus on constraining the composition and bioavailability of dust-derived nutrients across a wide range of globally important dust sources so that dust composition and related feedbacks can be better parameterized in Earth system models. Aeolian dust deposition can deliver nutrients that fuel primary production in remote ocean regions. This Review considers how dust sources and nutrient composition, in addition to dust flux, have potentially impacted ocean productivity, carbon burial and climate over the past 7 Myr.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"789-807"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-06DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00744-0
Ingrid Boas, Clare Davis
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Ingrid Boas about their project investigating the role of cultural heritage in shaping climate change adaptation amongst Indigenous peoples with mobile livelihoods.
{"title":"Indigenous cultural heritage in motion","authors":"Ingrid Boas, Clare Davis","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00744-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00744-0","url":null,"abstract":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment interviewed Ingrid Boas about their project investigating the role of cultural heritage in shaping climate change adaptation amongst Indigenous peoples with mobile livelihoods.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"769-769"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00741-3
Lennart T. Bach, Phil Williamson, Joanna I. House, Philip W. Boyd
Natural CO2 removal is increasingly being claimed as anthropogenic climate mitigation. This misrepresentation is already prevalent for forests and coastal ecosystems; there is now the risk of the error reoccurring for open-ocean CO2 uptake via the biological carbon pump.
{"title":"Natural carbon uptake by ocean biology will not deliver credible carbon credits","authors":"Lennart T. Bach, Phil Williamson, Joanna I. House, Philip W. Boyd","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00741-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00741-3","url":null,"abstract":"Natural CO2 removal is increasingly being claimed as anthropogenic climate mitigation. This misrepresentation is already prevalent for forests and coastal ecosystems; there is now the risk of the error reoccurring for open-ocean CO2 uptake via the biological carbon pump.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 12","pages":"767-768"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145695656","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-04DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00735-1
Elizabeth Cottrell, Dante Canil, Charles Langmuir, Katy A. Evans, Fabrice Gaillard
Oxygen is the most abundant element in Earth’s mantle. Oxygen fugacity (fO2), which quantifies the availability of oxygen to mediate oxidation–reduction reactions, affects important mantle processes, such as depth of melting, extraction of volatiles to the atmosphere, crustal composition and ore body generation. Debate continues over modern and past variations in mantle fO2. In this Review, we compile thermobarometric data from mafic and ultramafic rocks at ridges, back-arcs, and arcs and show that the fO2 of subduction-influenced arc mantle is appreciably higher than the mantle supplying ocean ridges. We review the timing and mechanisms that might transfer redox budget to the arc mantle wedge. A new proxy for the redox-sensitive element vanadium confirms the higher oxidation state of arc mantle and can be used to show there is no conclusive evidence for oxidation of the ambient mantle since the Archaean (2,500–4,000 million years ago). Earlier, in the Hadean magma ocean (>4,000 million years ago), liquid silicate equilibrated with liquid metal alloy while the upper mantle was rapidly oxidized to higher fO2. Future research should focus on how mantle fO2 coevolved with Earth’s primitive atmosphere during core formation, magma ocean crystallization and degassing. Mantle oxygen fugacity is set by phase equilibria and is intimately linked to geochemical and geodynamic processes. This Review explores the possible mechanisms that have controlled mantle oxygen fugacity from Earth’s early beginnings to the present day.
{"title":"Earth’s past and present mantle oxygen fugacity","authors":"Elizabeth Cottrell, Dante Canil, Charles Langmuir, Katy A. Evans, Fabrice Gaillard","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00735-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00735-1","url":null,"abstract":"Oxygen is the most abundant element in Earth’s mantle. Oxygen fugacity (fO2), which quantifies the availability of oxygen to mediate oxidation–reduction reactions, affects important mantle processes, such as depth of melting, extraction of volatiles to the atmosphere, crustal composition and ore body generation. Debate continues over modern and past variations in mantle fO2. In this Review, we compile thermobarometric data from mafic and ultramafic rocks at ridges, back-arcs, and arcs and show that the fO2 of subduction-influenced arc mantle is appreciably higher than the mantle supplying ocean ridges. We review the timing and mechanisms that might transfer redox budget to the arc mantle wedge. A new proxy for the redox-sensitive element vanadium confirms the higher oxidation state of arc mantle and can be used to show there is no conclusive evidence for oxidation of the ambient mantle since the Archaean (2,500–4,000 million years ago). Earlier, in the Hadean magma ocean (>4,000 million years ago), liquid silicate equilibrated with liquid metal alloy while the upper mantle was rapidly oxidized to higher fO2. Future research should focus on how mantle fO2 coevolved with Earth’s primitive atmosphere during core formation, magma ocean crystallization and degassing. Mantle oxygen fugacity is set by phase equilibria and is intimately linked to geochemical and geodynamic processes. This Review explores the possible mechanisms that have controlled mantle oxygen fugacity from Earth’s early beginnings to the present day.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"728-746"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-30DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Viola Heinrich, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz
Accurately estimating carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from land use and land-use change (FLUC) is critical to assessing nationally determined contributions and progress towards climate targets. In this Perspective, we compare five FLUC estimation approaches, discuss the origins of large uncertainties and discrepancies in estimates and consider how to improve estimate accuracy and better align individual estimates. Global FLUC estimates between 2000 and 2023 range from net emissions of 1.9 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 (based on dynamic global vegetation models) to net removals of −1.0 PgC yr−1 (based on Earth observations), with other estimates from bookkeeping models, country reports and atmospheric inversions falling within this range. Discrepancies arise from each approach using different definitions for FLUC, the spatial extent of managed land and including degradation and environmental effects to varying degrees. As a result, each approach accounts for different fluxes and land areas. Uncertainties within individual estimates are attributed to quality of land-use data, observational constraints and incomplete process consideration. These uncertainties can be reduced through better separation of anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes, including the effects of anthropogenically driven ecosystem degradation and improving model parameterizations. Thus, future research should prioritise unambiguous and consistent definitions and conducting systematic evaluations against each other to improve the translation and harmonization of FLUC estimates, which is essential to support effective climate policies and optimize land-based climate change mitigation. Robust quantification of carbon dioxide fluxes from land use is critical for guiding climate change mitigation efforts and for improved understanding of the global carbon cycle. This Perspective explores the origins of uncertainties and discrepancies in established estimation approaches and considers strategies to improve, translate and harmonize flux estimates.
准确估算土地利用和土地利用变化产生的二氧化碳通量对于评估国家自主贡献和实现气候目标的进展至关重要。在这个观点中，我们比较了五种FLUC估计方法，讨论了估计中大不确定性和差异的起源，并考虑了如何提高估计精度和更好地校准单个估计。2000年至2023年全球FLUC估算值的范围从净排放量1.9±0.6 PgC /年（基于动态全球植被模型）到净清除率- 1.0 PgC /年（基于地球观测）不等，其他来自簿记模型、国家报告和大气逆温的估算值也在这一范围内。每一种方法使用不同的定义，包括不同程度的退化和环境影响，从而产生差异。因此，每种方法考虑不同的通量和土地面积。个别估算的不确定性是由于土地利用数据的质量、观测限制和不完整的过程考虑。通过更好地分离人为和自然CO2通量，包括人为驱动的生态系统退化的影响和改进模式参数化，可以减少这些不确定性。因此，未来的研究应优先考虑明确和一致的定义，并对彼此进行系统评估，以改进FLUC估算的翻译和协调，这对于支持有效的气候政策和优化陆基气候变化减缓至关重要。对土地利用产生的二氧化碳通量进行强有力的量化，对于指导减缓气候变化的努力和增进对全球碳循环的了解至关重要。本展望探讨了既定估算方法中不确定性和差异的根源，并考虑了改进、转换和协调通量估算的策略。
{"title":"Differences and uncertainties in land-use CO2 flux estimates","authors":"Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Clemens Schwingshackl, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Giacomo Grassi, Viola Heinrich, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Ana Bastos, Philippe Ciais, Stephen Sitch, Julia Pongratz","doi":"10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43017-025-00730-6","url":null,"abstract":"Accurately estimating carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes from land use and land-use change (FLUC) is critical to assessing nationally determined contributions and progress towards climate targets. In this Perspective, we compare five FLUC estimation approaches, discuss the origins of large uncertainties and discrepancies in estimates and consider how to improve estimate accuracy and better align individual estimates. Global FLUC estimates between 2000 and 2023 range from net emissions of 1.9 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1 (based on dynamic global vegetation models) to net removals of −1.0 PgC yr−1 (based on Earth observations), with other estimates from bookkeeping models, country reports and atmospheric inversions falling within this range. Discrepancies arise from each approach using different definitions for FLUC, the spatial extent of managed land and including degradation and environmental effects to varying degrees. As a result, each approach accounts for different fluxes and land areas. Uncertainties within individual estimates are attributed to quality of land-use data, observational constraints and incomplete process consideration. These uncertainties can be reduced through better separation of anthropogenic and natural CO2 fluxes, including the effects of anthropogenically driven ecosystem degradation and improving model parameterizations. Thus, future research should prioritise unambiguous and consistent definitions and conducting systematic evaluations against each other to improve the translation and harmonization of FLUC estimates, which is essential to support effective climate policies and optimize land-based climate change mitigation. Robust quantification of carbon dioxide fluxes from land use is critical for guiding climate change mitigation efforts and for improved understanding of the global carbon cycle. This Perspective explores the origins of uncertainties and discrepancies in established estimation approaches and considers strategies to improve, translate and harmonize flux estimates.","PeriodicalId":18921,"journal":{"name":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","volume":"6 11","pages":"747-766"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-21DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00724-4
Xiangdong Zhang, Timo Vihma, Annette Rinke, G. W. K. Moore, Han Tang, Cecilia Äijälä, Alice DuVivier, Jianbin Huang, Laura Landrum, Chao Li, Jing Zhang, Linette Boisvert, Bin Cheng, Judah Cohen, Dörthe Handorf, Edward Hanna, Katharina Hartmuth, Marius O. Jonassen, Yong Luo, Sonja Murto, James E. Overland, Chelsea Parker, William Perrie, Kirstin Schulz, Axel Schweiger, Thomas Spengler, Michael Steele, Wen-wen Tung, Nicholas Tyrrell, Elina Valkonen, Hailong Wang, Zhuo Wang, Wilbert Weijer, Siiri Wickström, Yutian Wu, Minghong Zhang
Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. In this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers. Rare and extreme climate events have increasingly occurred in the Arctic since ~2000. This Review outlines the observed and projected changes in atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric extremes and explains their increasing occurrence through a ‘pushing and triggering’ framework.
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Pub Date : 2025-10-17DOI: 10.1038/s43017-025-00737-z
Marta Koch
Marta Koch explains how stakeholder asset-mapping can help identify emerging climate action technology solutions in the Arctic.
Marta Koch解释了利益相关者资产映射如何帮助确定北极地区新兴的气候行动技术解决方案。
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