Price support policy and market price dynamics: The case of Indian wheat

Abstract

The study investigates the effect of price support policies on market price distribution and its dynamics in the Indian wheat market. The analysis uses a quantile autoregression model that provides a flexible representation of price dynamics and the 2001–2020 monthly wholesale market price data. The analysis is conducted conditional on the net stock level held in the previous period. The results reveal that the net purchase by the government prevented very low market prices for wheat but resulted in price spikes. It has a price-enhancing effect as well. The associated moments of price distribution show that public stockholding reduced variation in market price distribution. However, the government's release of stock did not prevent price rises. Findings show that dynamic adjustments tend to be qualitatively different across regimes. Government intervention in the grain market reduced stability through dynamic adjustments in wheat market prices. The results have policy implications for India and other countries in Southeast Asia in the context of the WTO's negotiations on public stockholdings and using public stockholdings as an instrument in addressing price volatility and food shortages.