Agricultural Economics最新文献

Chinese agricultural exporters display a persistent tendency toward low price-cost markups. This study investigates the determinants of this phenomenon by examining the role of Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty (RTPU), with a particular focus on the impact of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). Emphasizing the pro-competitive effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs), we develop a theoretical framework grounded in a mathematical model and employed firm-level data from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and Chinese Customs Database for the period 2000–2013. The empirical results indicate that CAFTA significantly reduces RTPU, which in turn lowers firm markups by intensifying competition in export market and promoting economies of scale effects. These are more pronounced among smaller firms in the food manufacturing sector and producers of lower-quality agricultural goods. Furthermore, the reduction in RTPU enhances resource allocation efficiency within the agricultural export sector by narrowing the dispersion of markups across exporters. This paper contributes to understanding the “black box” of markup formation in agricultural export by identifying a novel mechanism—RTA-induced competition—that helps explain the persistently low markups of Chinese agricultural exporters. Our findings provide firm-level evidence on how RTAs foster regional competition, amplify the benefits of regional trade, and improve resource allocation efficiency. These insights offer valuable policy implications for the design and refinement of RTA strategies.

It has long been recognized that reforming agricultural policies can be challenging. One of the key obstacles is the risk of dissatisfaction among rural voters and the potential loss of electoral support. In this paper, we demonstrate that such political costs may arise not only from policy reforms that are actually implemented, but also from reform proposals that are put forward but never enacted. We illustrate this with an example from Poland, where, in 2020, the government attempted to reform animal welfare regulations. The proposed law was highly unpopular among farmers, sparked numerous protests, and was ultimately not passed. We provide evidence that, despite the withdrawal of the reform, the governing party suffered a significant decline in support among the rural electorate in the first elections following the attempt, and that this decline was more pronounced in municipalities where livestock production was relatively more important. The interpretation that the party's poorer performance in rural areas may have been due to the animal welfare proposals is further supported by several robustness tests.

Access to groundwater is inextricably linked with agriculture, rural livelihoods, and climate resilience. Yet, in many parts of India, groundwater tables are falling, with extraction rates exceeding that of recharge. There have been many attempts and interventions to manage groundwater, but there has been no systematic assessment yet of how well these have worked, and in what contexts and regions. This paper attempts such an exercise, highlighting the common lessons learned, and points to an agenda for further research.

We examine the influence of information access on seasonal paddy yields in 10 selected Indian states using decade-long (2009–2019) data from the Government of India's Kisan (farmers) call center (KCC) initiative. Based on 17 million farmers' queries at the KCC, we isolate two most frequent concerns—one related to pest pressure and the other related to weather predictions. Leveraging these farmers' queries and crop yield–related datasets at the district level, we assess the impacts of weather and paddy pest infestation information on seasonal paddy yields. Endogeneity concerns are addressed using an instrumental variable (IV) approach—previous years' paddy yields and percentage gross irrigated area as IVs for pest and weather-related queries, respectively. After confirming the validity of the IVs, the results reveal that an increase in seasonal pest attacks—proxied by a 1% increase in seasonal pest-related queries from districts—decreases paddy yields by 0.028 t ha $�{}^{�-�1�}$ (i.e., a decrease of 1.1% of average paddy yields). On the contrary, a 1% increase in district-level seasonal weather queries increases paddy yields by 0.008 t ha $�{}^{�-�1�}$ (i.e., an increase of 0.3% of average paddy yields). Our results point to the positive contribution of paddy yield gains, while addressing proactive types of queries (i.e., weather), as well as the limitations of digital extension services, which are unable to recover the potential yield while addressing reactive types of queries (i.e., paddy pests) in a developing country.

Global agrifood value chains are rapidly expanding worldwide and play a key role in transforming agricultural production and food systems. Despite this importance, their socioeconomic implications remain insufficiently understood. This paper examines the relationship between agrifood value chain participation and income inequality. Using panel data from 137 countries over the period 1990–2020, we find a negative association between global agrifood value chain participation and income inequality, largely driven by the food and beverage sector. Delving into the underlying mechanisms, we show that this inequality-reducing effect operates through labor reallocation away from informal, low-productivity agricultural activities towards more formal and better-paid downstream processing jobs, and a process of structural upgrading toward industry and services in countries that deepen their participation in the food and beverage sector. We also highlight significant disparities across regions and income groups. These findings carry significant policy implications and underscore the need for policymakers in developing countries to strengthen agrifood value chains through further transformation, with the aim of increasing incomes, generating employment, and reducing income inequality.

Climate change is reshaping agricultural production, with adjustments in crop structure serving as a vital climate adaptation strategy. Drawing on county-level agricultural data (1985–2019) and climate data (1965–2019), this study employs a panel fixed effects model to assess the impacts of climate change on the area shares of wheat, maize, and rice in Northern China, as well as their implications for grain production. The results reveal heterogeneous crop-specific responses. The growing degree days (GDDs) is positively associated with maize area—with each 10°C·day increase in GDD associated with an approximately 0.24% rise in maize area share—while having a significantly negative effect on wheat. These effects are more pronounced in colder regions and in a single-cropping system, reflecting agroecological heterogeneity. On the other hand, increased precipitation is associated with expansions in both wheat and maize area shares, with the effect being more evident for wheat. These climate-driven adjustments in Northern China contributed to an estimated 1.42% increase in China's total grain output over the study period. Further mechanism analysis, using competing crops as a case, shows that the positive impact of GDD on spring maize productivity is notably greater than that for spring wheat, suggesting that higher GDD enhances the comparative advantage of maize, thereby expanding its area share while reducing that of spring wheat. We also find that increased precipitation is significantly associated with multiple cropping index (MCI) increases, offering an additional adjustment pathway. By incorporating socio-economic factors into the analytical framework, our results indicate that improved irrigation capacity can effectively moderate the impacts of climate change on cropping patterns—by mitigating the negative effect of GDD on area shares of wheat and rice, and strengthening the positive effect of GDD on maize. Additionally, the adverse impact of GDD on wheat is substantially weaker in major grain-producing counties compared with nonmajor ones. These findings enhance our understanding of how staple crop structure in Northern China responds to climate change and the attendant implications for food security. Our analysis can help policymakers to formulate more targeted adaptation strategies that optimize land use and sustain stable grain production.

This study uses a natural experiment design to evaluate the effects of the Doi Moi revolution in Vietnam on production outcomes for the country's five largest crops (rice, coffee, tea, cassava, and rubber). We test whether Doi Moi reforms had statistically measurable impacts on agricultural production using the synthetic control method (SCM). We find that economic reform led to substantial, long-term increases in the production for at least four of these crops. However, the underlying drivers of these impacts appear to be crop-specific. For tea, increases were concentrated on the intensive margin, with yields nearly 87% above counterfactual levels, while land area rose only modestly. By contrast, the dramatic expansion of coffee production was driven mainly by the extensive margin, with harvested area increasing by roughly 740%. Our findings underscore the transformative role that market-oriented agricultural reforms can have in fostering agricultural production.

We examine the impact of a recent state-led alcohol prohibition policy on caloric and macronutrient intake from healthy food sources in Bihar, India. We exploit an exogenous statewide ban on the production, sale, and consumption of alcohol implemented in 2016. Using data from two rounds of a nationally representative cross-sectional survey conducted before and after the ban and employing a propensity score matching difference-in-differences framework, we find that alcohol prohibition led to significant increases in caloric, protein, and fat intake from healthy food sources. The policy was also associated with a decline in fat intake from unhealthy food sources. These findings are robust across a range of specifications and estimation strategies. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger effects among urban households, wealthier cohorts, and marginalized castes. The observed changes are likely driven by healthy behavioral spillovers, reduced marital conflicts, higher household earnings, income effects from the reallocation of resources previously spent on alcohol, and increased household spending on healthy food items such as pulses, dairy products, and healthy oils.