Increased frequency of extreme climatic events weakens the community stability of natural grassland under directional climate changes by reducing resilience

IF 6.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Global Ecology and Biogeography Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI:10.1111/geb.13824

Peipei Liu, Wangwang Lv, Jianping Sun, Shilong Piao, Yanfen Wang, Dorji Tsechoe, Caiyun Luo, Zhenhua Zhang, Bowen Li, Xiaowei Guo, Jingya Lv, Lanying Chen, Yingnian Li, Josep Peñuelas, Shiping Wang

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Abstract

Aim

Chronic directional climate changes in temperature and precipitation are predicted to increase the frequency of extreme climatic events (ECEs); however, their co-occurring effects on the temporal stability of community productivity (i.e. ANPP stability) are still unclear. Here, we evaluate whether the increased frequency of ECEs reduces ANPP stability, and how it modulates the effects of chronic directional climate factors on ANPP stability in natural grassland.

Location

Twenty-two sites in Asia and 14 sites in North America.

Time period

1980s–2010s.

Major taxa studied

Herbaceous plant.

Methods

We collected 36 long-term observational and consecutive ANPP data (at least 10 years) and resampled yearly ANPP via a consecutive resampling method of nested time windows for each field. We used linear mixed-effect models, partial regression analysis and structure equation models to explore the interactive effects of three climatic factors on ANPP stability and their associated intermediate processes of sensitivity, asymmetry, resistance and resilience.

Results

The increased frequency of ECEs was observed within the long-term rising temperature and elevating precipitation trend across sites in the past several decades. Elevating precipitation rather than rising temperature was the primary driver influencing ANPP stability. Elevating precipitation increased ANPP stability through increasing mean ANPP and decreasing the standard deviation (i.e. SD) of ANPP due to a decrease in sensitivity of ANPP to precipitation. The increased frequency of ECEs decreased ANPP stability mainly by increasing the SD of ANPP, and it reduced the positive effect of elevated precipitation on ANPP stability via a decrease in resilience.

Main conclusion

Our results demonstrated that recurrent and discrete ECEs had cumulatively negative effects on ANPP stability, and the decreased resilience was identified as the primary factor reducing the grassland community stability under long-term climate change. This highlighted the potential risks of increased frequency of ECEs for grassland ecosystem functions.

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极端气候事件发生频率的增加削弱了天然草地在定向气候变化下的群落稳定性，从而降低了复原力

据预测，温度和降水的长期定向气候变化将增加极端气候事件（ECEs）的发生频率；然而，它们对群落生产力的时间稳定性（即ANPP稳定性）的共同影响仍不清楚。在此，我们评估了极端气候事件频率的增加是否会降低ANPP的稳定性，以及它如何调节天然草地中长期定向气候因子对ANPP稳定性的影响。

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来源期刊

Global Ecology and Biogeography 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

3.10%

发文量

170

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Global Ecology and Biogeography (GEB) welcomes papers that investigate broad-scale (in space, time and/or taxonomy), general patterns in the organization of ecological systems and assemblages, and the processes that underlie them. In particular, GEB welcomes studies that use macroecological methods, comparative analyses, meta-analyses, reviews, spatial analyses and modelling to arrive at general, conceptual conclusions. Studies in GEB need not be global in spatial extent, but the conclusions and implications of the study must be relevant to ecologists and biogeographers globally, rather than being limited to local areas, or specific taxa. Similarly, GEB is not limited to spatial studies; we are equally interested in the general patterns of nature through time, among taxa (e.g., body sizes, dispersal abilities), through the course of evolution, etc. Further, GEB welcomes papers that investigate general impacts of human activities on ecological systems in accordance with the above criteria.