Adapting vector surveillance using Bayesian experimental design: An application to an ongoing tick monitoring program in the southeastern United States
B.K.M. Case , Kyndall C. Dye-Braumuller , Chris Evans , Huixuan Li , Lauren Rustin , Melissa S. Nolan
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Maps of the distribution of medically-important ticks throughout the US remain lacking in spatial and temporal resolution in many areas, leading to holes in our understanding of where and when people are at risk of tick encounters, an important baseline for informing public health response. In this work, we demonstrate the use of Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) in planning spatiotemporal surveillance of disease vectors. We frame survey planning as an optimization problem with the objective of identifying a calendar of sampling locations that maximizes the expected information regarding some goal. Here we consider the goals of understanding associations between environmental factors and tick presence and minimizing uncertainty in high risk areas. We illustrate our proposed BED workflow using an ongoing tick surveillance study in South Carolina parks. Following a model comparison study based on two years of initial data, several techniques for finding optimal surveys were compared to random sampling. Two optimization algorithms found surveys better than all replications of random sampling, while a space-filling heuristic performed favorably as well. Further, optimal surveys of just 20 visits were more effective than repeating the schedule of 111 visits used in 2021. We conclude that BED shows promise as a flexible and rigorous means of survey design for vector control, and could help alleviate pressure on local agencies by limiting the resources necessary for accurate information on arthropod distributions. We have made the code for our BED workflow publicly available on Zenodo to help promote the application of these methods to future surveillance efforts.
期刊介绍:
Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases is an international, peer-reviewed scientific journal. It publishes original research papers, short communications, state-of-the-art mini-reviews, letters to the editor, clinical-case studies, announcements of pertinent international meetings, and editorials.
The journal covers a broad spectrum and brings together various disciplines, for example, zoology, microbiology, molecular biology, genetics, mathematical modelling, veterinary and human medicine. Multidisciplinary approaches and the use of conventional and novel methods/methodologies (in the field and in the laboratory) are crucial for deeper understanding of the natural processes and human behaviour/activities that result in human or animal diseases and in economic effects of ticks and tick-borne pathogens. Such understanding is essential for management of tick populations and tick-borne diseases in an effective and environmentally acceptable manner.