Impacts of host availability and temperature on mosquito-borne parasite transmission

IF 7.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Ecological Monographs Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI:10.1002/ecm.1603
Kyle J.-M. Dahlin, Suzanne M. O'Regan, Barbara A. Han, John Paul Schmidt, John M. Drake
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Abstract

Global climate change is predicted to cause range shifts in the mosquito species that transmit pathogens to humans and wildlife. Recent modeling studies have sought to improve our understanding of the relationship between temperature and the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. However, the role of the vertebrate host population, including the importance of host behavioral defenses on mosquito feeding success, remains poorly understood despite ample empirical evidence of its significance to pathogen transmission. Here, we derived thermal performance curves for mosquito and parasite traits and integrated them into two models of vector–host contact to investigate how vertebrate host traits and behaviors affect two key thermal properties of mosquito-borne parasite transmission: the thermal optimum for transmission and the thermal niche of the parasite population. We parameterized these models for five mosquito-borne parasite transmission systems, leading to two main conclusions. First, vertebrate host availability may induce a shift in the thermal optimum of transmission. When the tolerance of the vertebrate host to biting from mosquitoes is limited, the thermal optimum of transmission may be altered by as much as 5°C, a magnitude of applied significance. Second, thresholds for sustained transmission depend nonlinearly on both vertebrate host availability and temperature. At any temperature, sustained transmission is impossible when vertebrate hosts are extremely abundant because the probability of encountering an infected individual is negligible. But when host biting tolerance is limited, sustained transmission will also not occur at low host population densities. Furthermore, our model indicates that biting tolerance should interact with vertebrate host population density to adjust the parasite population thermal niche. Together, these results suggest that vertebrate host traits and behaviors play essential roles in the thermal properties of mosquito-borne parasite transmission. Increasing our understanding of this relationship should lead us to improved predictions about shifting global patterns of mosquito-borne disease.

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宿主可用性和温度对蚊媒寄生虫传播的影响
据预测,全球气候变化将导致向人类和野生动物传播病原体的蚊子种类发生变化。最近的建模研究试图提高我们对温度与蚊媒病原体传播潜力之间关系的理解。然而,我们对脊椎动物宿主种群的作用,包括宿主行为防御对蚊子捕食成功率的重要性,仍然知之甚少,尽管有大量经验证据表明其对病原体传播的重要性。在这里,我们得出了蚊子和寄生虫性状的热性能曲线,并将其整合到两个病媒-宿主接触模型中,以研究脊椎动物宿主的性状和行为如何影响蚊媒寄生虫传播的两个关键热特性:传播的最佳热环境和寄生虫种群的热生态位。我们为五个蚊媒寄生虫传播系统的这些模型设定了参数,得出了两个主要结论。首先,脊椎动物宿主的可获得性可能会导致传播的最佳热环境发生变化。当脊椎动物宿主对蚊子叮咬的耐受性受到限制时,传播的最佳热度可能会发生多达 5°C 的变化,这一变化幅度具有应用意义。其次,持续传播的阈值非线性地取决于脊椎动物宿主的可用性和温度。在任何温度下,当脊椎动物宿主极为丰富时,持续传播都是不可能的,因为遇到受感染个体的概率可以忽略不计。但当宿主的耐咬能力有限时,在宿主种群密度较低的情况下也不会发生持续传播。此外,我们的模型表明,叮咬耐受性应与脊椎动物宿主种群密度相互作用,以调整寄生虫种群热生态位。这些结果表明,脊椎动物宿主的特征和行为对蚊媒寄生虫传播的热特性起着至关重要的作用。加深对这一关系的理解,将有助于我们更好地预测全球蚊媒疾病模式的变化。
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来源期刊
Ecological Monographs
Ecological Monographs 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The vision for Ecological Monographs is that it should be the place for publishing integrative, synthetic papers that elaborate new directions for the field of ecology. Original Research Papers published in Ecological Monographs will continue to document complex observational, experimental, or theoretical studies that by their very integrated nature defy dissolution into shorter publications focused on a single topic or message. Reviews will be comprehensive and synthetic papers that establish new benchmarks in the field, define directions for future research, contribute to fundamental understanding of ecological principles, and derive principles for ecological management in its broadest sense (including, but not limited to: conservation, mitigation, restoration, and pro-active protection of the environment). Reviews should reflect the full development of a topic and encompass relevant natural history, observational and experimental data, analyses, models, and theory. Reviews published in Ecological Monographs should further blur the boundaries between “basic” and “applied” ecology. Concepts and Synthesis papers will conceptually advance the field of ecology. These papers are expected to go well beyond works being reviewed and include discussion of new directions, new syntheses, and resolutions of old questions. In this world of rapid scientific advancement and never-ending environmental change, there needs to be room for the thoughtful integration of scientific ideas, data, and concepts that feeds the mind and guides the development of the maturing science of ecology. Ecological Monographs provides that room, with an expansive view to a sustainable future.
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