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Using recommender systems to analyze and predict plant communities from partial assemblages 利用推荐系统分析和预测植物群落的部分组合
IF 6.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-23 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70056
Philipp Brun, Izabela Moise, Patrice Descombes, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Fernando Perez-Cruz, Dirk Nikolaus Karger, Damaris Zurell
Safeguarding biodiversity requires a detailed understanding of the biosphere, especially regarding the distribution and state of habitats. Citizen science data offer a rich source of useful information, but they usually only contain partial records of species assemblages, as predominantly opportunistic observations of individual species are reported. We explored the capacity of recommender systems—a class of algorithms originally developed for tasks like recommending movies to users on streaming platforms—to fill gaps in citizen science data and assign unreported plant species to partial assemblages, using opportunistic presence-only observations as training data. We employed a hierarchical Poisson factorization (HPF) model to learn distributions exclusively from pixel-wise pooled observations, which were synthesized to a site-by-species matrix of a dimension of c. 80,000 × 2000 covering Switzerland. Based on about 1500 independent surveys, we assessed HPF's capacity to predict held-out species and compared these to predictions from traditional species distribution models (SDMs). Moreover, we investigated HPF's latent features, that is, its low-dimensional summaries of the similarity in species' occurrence across sites and the similarity in site suitability for species. Indicator species of most broad habitat categories distinguished in Switzerland clustered significantly in species-related latent feature space, indicating a high capacity of HPF to approximate co-occurrence. Patterns in site-related latent features were primarily explained by climate, soil, and topography. However, about 40% of the signal could not be attributed to gridded predictors and likely mirrors small-scale differences, for example, due to disturbances like those experienced in ruderal habitats. Predictive performance of HPF was close to that of SDMs if 20 (or 49% by median) species were observed at a site. However, when ensembling predictions of HPF and SDMs, performance could be improved for sites with ≥6 species observed. HPF predictions performed comparably well in disturbed habitats like roadside vegetation and comparably poorly in habitats experiencing elevated environmental filtering, such as subalpine forests. Given their ability to efficiently learn the distribution of entire floras based on presence-only data, their unique capacity to obtain generalized co-occurrence proxies from partial inventories, and their potential to boost distributional predictions, recommender systems can valuably contribute to improving our understanding of the biosphere.
保护生物多样性需要详细了解生物圈,特别是关于栖息地的分布和状态。公民科学数据提供了丰富的有用信息来源,但它们通常只包含物种组合的部分记录,因为主要是对单个物种的机会性观察。我们探索了推荐系统的能力——一种最初为在流媒体平台上向用户推荐电影等任务而开发的算法——来填补公民科学数据中的空白,并将未报告的植物物种分配给部分组合,使用机会主义的仅存在的观察作为训练数据。我们使用层次泊松分解(HPF)模型来学习仅来自逐像素池观测的分布,这些观测被合成为覆盖瑞士的c. 80,000 × 2000维的逐物种点矩阵。基于大约1500个独立调查,我们评估了HPF预测滞留物种的能力,并将其与传统物种分布模型(SDMs)的预测结果进行了比较。此外,我们还研究了HPF的潜在特征,即物种在不同地点发生的相似性和物种在地点适宜性上的相似性的低维总结。瑞士最广泛生境分类的指示物种在物种相关潜在特征空间中显著聚集,表明HPF具有较高的近似共现能力。与立地相关的潜在特征模式主要由气候、土壤和地形来解释。然而,大约40%的信号不能归因于网格预测,可能反映了小规模的差异,例如,由于像在原始栖息地经历的干扰。如果在一个地点观察到20个物种(或49%的中位数),HPF的预测性能接近SDMs。然而,当HPF和SDMs的集合预测时,当观察到≥6个物种时,性能可以提高。在路边植被等受干扰的生境中,HPF的预测效果相对较好,而在亚高山森林等环境过滤作用增强的生境中,HPF的预测效果相对较差。基于仅存在数据有效地学习整个植物区系分布的能力,从部分清单中获得广义共生代理的独特能力,以及促进分布预测的潜力,推荐系统可以为提高我们对生物圈的理解做出有价值的贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Habitat heterogeneity and anthropogenic disturbance jointly affect species spatial associations and persistence 生境异质性和人为干扰共同影响物种的空间关联和持久性
IF 6.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-21 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70059
Yumei Li, Yunfeng Chen, Wei Wang, Kai Liu, Hanqing Liu, Ming Lu, Zexuan Gao, Haoyang Wang, Yonggang Nie
Interspecific interactions are of central importance to community assembly and are closely associated with ecosystem productivity, functioning, and stability. However, seasonal fluctuations in interspecific interactions and their resilience to anthropogenic disturbances and three‐dimensional (3D) habitat heterogeneity remain largely unexplored. Traditional methods encounter difficulties in quantitatively describing 3D habitats. To address this, we integrated high‐resolution unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)‐based light detection and ranging (LiDAR), systematic camera trapping, and dynamic multispecies, multistate occurrence models to investigate the persistence mechanisms of interspecific spatial associations. Focusing on large‐ and medium‐sized mammal communities in human‐dominated landscapes with 3D heterogeneity within the Tiebu Sika Deer Nature Reserve, our study provides new insights into the mechanisms underlying biotic interactions. Results indicated that mammals exhibited stronger antagonistic spatial associations in winter, characterized by stronger negative or weaker positive correlations. Free‐ranging livestock influenced the distributions (pairwise interactions) and interspecific spatial associations (higher order interactions) of wildlife. The extent of this influence relied on the trophic interactions (predation or competition) between the free‐ranging livestock and wildlife. Human disturbances, beyond domestic livestock, have further reversed species' spatial associations, compounding the effects of domestic animals. Conversely, 3D habitat heterogeneity can facilitate the persistence of species' spatial associations, encompassing both pairwise and intricate higher order interactions, thereby mitigating the impacts of human activities on these associations. In general, our results highlighted that various human disturbances can exert cumulative effects on the spatial associations between species, while three‐dimensional habitat heterogeneity mediated the human impacts.
种间的相互作用对群落的形成至关重要,并与生态系统的生产力、功能和稳定性密切相关。然而,种间相互作用的季节波动及其对人为干扰和三维(3D)栖息地异质性的适应能力在很大程度上仍未被探索。传统方法在定量描述三维栖息地时遇到困难。为了解决这个问题,我们整合了基于高分辨率无人机(UAV)的光探测和测距(LiDAR),系统相机捕获和动态多物种,多状态发生模型来研究种间空间关联的持续机制。我们的研究聚焦于铁布梅花鹿自然保护区人类主导的景观中具有三维异质性的大中型哺乳动物群落,为生物相互作用的机制提供了新的见解。结果表明,哺乳动物在冬季表现出较强的拮抗性空间关联,表现出较强的负相关或较弱的正相关。自由放养家畜影响野生动物的分布(成对相互作用)和种间空间关联(高阶相互作用)。这种影响的程度取决于自由放养牲畜和野生动物之间的营养相互作用(捕食或竞争)。除了家畜之外,人类的干扰进一步扭转了物种的空间关联,使家畜的影响更加复杂。相反,三维栖息地异质性可以促进物种空间关联的持久性,包括成对和复杂的高阶相互作用,从而减轻人类活动对这些关联的影响。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,各种人为干扰对物种之间的空间联系产生累积效应,而三维栖息地异质性介导了人类的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Benefits and costs of mycorrhizal associations vary along the acquisitive–conservative plant strategy spectrum 菌根结合的收益和成本沿获取-保守植物策略谱变化
IF 6.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-20 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70057
Yuguo Yang, Glenn Ledder, Sabrina E. Russo
The acquisitive–conservative spectrum of plant strategies is a well‐supported interspecific trade‐off axis: Compared to acquisitive species that prioritize resource allocation to functions promoting carbon fixation, conservative species tend to grow slower because a larger amount of resources is allocated to functions promoting survival. However, mycorrhizal allocation—potentially beneficial or costly to the plant—has not been fully integrated into this framework. We developed a model predicting plant growth along a soil fertility gradient, incorporating mycorrhizal allocation. Plant strategies are defined using the acquisitive–conservative spectrum, while mycorrhizal fungal strategies are defined based on how beneficial fungi are to plants and their sensitivity to soil fertility. Our results predict that conservative species exhibit greater mycorrhizal allocation under optimality than acquisitive species when paired with similar fungi in the same environment. This allocation difference across plant strategies becomes more prominent for plant associations with ectomycorrhizal versus arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Mycorrhizal allocation improves conservative species' growth across broader ranges of fungal strategies and soil fertilities, even to the point that they can achieve growth rates comparable to or exceeding those of acquisitive species in infertile soils when acquisitive species' mycorrhizal interactions (fungal strategy or allocation) are suboptimal. Our findings highlight broader ecological and evolutionary implications of trade‐offs in mycorrhizal allocation for plant resource allocation. Ecologically, variation in mycorrhizal costs and benefits along the acquisitive–conservative spectrum can affect plant coexistence. Evolutionarily, greater opportunities to benefit from mycorrhizae may select for more optimized plant–mycorrhizal relationships, especially for conservative species.
植物策略的获取-保守光谱是一个得到充分支持的种间权衡轴:与优先分配资源给促进碳固定功能的获取物种相比,保守物种往往生长较慢,因为更多的资源分配给促进生存的功能。然而,菌根的分配——可能对植物有益或昂贵——尚未完全纳入该框架。我们开发了一个模型,预测植物生长沿土壤肥力梯度,纳入菌根分配。植物策略是使用获取-保守光谱来定义的,而菌根真菌策略是根据真菌对植物的有益程度及其对土壤肥力的敏感性来定义的。我们的研究结果预测,当在相同的环境中与相似的真菌配对时,保守物种比获得物种在最优状态下表现出更大的菌根分配。在植物与外生菌根真菌和丛枝菌根真菌的关联中,这种分配差异变得更加突出。菌根分配改善了保守物种在更广泛的真菌策略和土壤肥力范围内的生长,甚至当获取物种的菌根相互作用(真菌策略或分配)不理想时,它们可以达到与贫瘠土壤中获取物种相当或超过获取物种的生长速度。我们的研究结果强调了菌根分配与植物资源分配之间权衡的更广泛的生态和进化意义。从生态学上讲,菌根成本和收益在获取-保守光谱上的变化会影响植物的共存。从进化的角度来看,更大的机会从菌根中获益可能会选择更优化的植物-菌根关系,特别是对于保守的物种。
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引用次数: 0
Climate‐linked evolution and genetics in a warming Arctic 北极变暖与气候相关的进化和遗传
IF 6.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-16 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70053
L. Ruth Rivkin, Kiersten C. K. King, Jon Aars, Kristin L. Laidre, Alexandra Langwieder, David McGeachy, Levi Newediuk, Stephen D. Petersen, Nicholas Pilfold, Aryn P. Wilder, Geoff York, Evan S. Richardson, Colin J. Garroway
Knowledge of evolutionary patterns and genetic variation across a species' range is important for determining conservation and management strategies. The Arctic is the fastest‐warming ecosystem on Earth and has already reached temperature increases not expected in the rest of the world until the end of the century. Consequently, synthesizing patterns of evolutionary and genetic change in Arctic species will be instructive for understanding future change in other systems. Here, we present a literature review of peer‐reviewed published research exploring evolutionary processes in polar bears, a sentinel species for climate action. The wealth of knowledge generated from the long‐term monitoring of polar bears has provided data for exploring patterns of evolutionary change associated with climate change. Warming temperatures have led to significant reductions in sea ice coverage and availability, contributing to declines in genetic variation in some, but not all, polar bear subpopulations. Natural selection driven by warming and selective subsistence harvests may be contributing to the evolution of smaller body sizes in polar bears. However, evidence of adaptive change in polar bears remains limited, despite clear behavioral and phenological plasticity in the species in response to changing sea ice conditions. Following our review, we suggest pathways for identifying the effects of climate warming on the evolution and genetic variation in polar bears, which may improve strategies for locally supported conservation and management decisions. Our results highlight the general complexity of predicting the consequences of warming for wide‐ranging, genetically structured, and adaptively specialized species such as polar bears, and underscore the importance of developing evolutionarily informed management and conservation priorities for species threatened by climate change.
了解物种范围内的进化模式和遗传变异对于确定保护和管理策略非常重要。北极是地球上变暖速度最快的生态系统,其气温上升的速度在本世纪末之前预计不会出现在世界其他地区。因此,北极物种进化和遗传变化的综合模式将对理解其他系统的未来变化具有指导意义。在这里,我们对同行评审的已发表研究进行了文献综述,这些研究探索了北极熊的进化过程,北极熊是气候行动的哨兵物种。从对北极熊的长期监测中获得的丰富知识为探索与气候变化相关的进化变化模式提供了数据。气温升高导致海冰覆盖面积和可用性显著减少,导致一些北极熊亚群的遗传变异减少,但不是全部。由气候变暖和选择性的生存收获驱动的自然选择可能是导致北极熊体型变小的原因。然而,北极熊适应变化的证据仍然有限,尽管物种对变化的海冰条件有明显的行为和物候可塑性。根据我们的综述,我们提出了确定气候变暖对北极熊进化和遗传变异影响的途径,这可能会改善当地支持的保护和管理决策策略。我们的研究结果强调了预测变暖对大范围、遗传结构和适应性特化物种(如北极熊)的影响的总体复杂性,并强调了为受气候变化威胁的物种制定进化信息管理和保护优先事项的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Year-round rhythms: Alpine plant species modulate soil and microbial dynamics during the growing season and under the snow 全年节律:高山植物物种在生长季节和雪下调节土壤和微生物动态
IF 6.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-03-11 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70055
Adam Taylor Ruka, Johannes Schweichhart, Jiří Doležal, Kateřina Čapková, Zuzana Chlumská, Rosa Paulina Calvillo-Medina, Travis B. Meador, Nadine Praeg, Paul Illmer, Roey Angel, Klára Řeháková
Soil–plant–microbe interactions are integral throughout most terrestrial ecosystems, yet the importance of plant phenology and seasonal dynamism upon these relationships remains unknown. Given the pronounced seasonality of alpine environments, we sampled eight plant species occurring in two habitats (alpine meadow and subnival zone) across four seasons (including the snow-covered winter) in the Central Eastern Alps to determine the plant growth strategies and plant nutrient parameters which closely couple with rhizosphere microbial parameters. In subnival locations, plants exhibited stronger seasonal changes among leaf and root tissue nutrient concentrations and non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) compared to those in lower elevation alpine meadows. However, rhizosphere microbial parameters (microbial biomass carbon (MBC), extracellular enzymes, and community composition) demonstrated more seasonal changes in the alpine meadow locations. Notably, a phenological delay was observed in bacterial and fungal communities of the subnival zone, with peak plant rhizosphere differentiation occurring later in the season than in alpine meadows. Therefore, the prolonged cold conditions and shorter growing season in higher elevations likely add a temporal aspect to the commonly used elevational gradient approach, which is not often considered. MBC and enzymatic potential within the rhizosphere were high across all plant species in the alpine meadow during the winter sampling, despite notable differences in microbial community composition. In contrast, winter rhizosphere communities did not differ between plant species in subnival locations, although one species, Oxyria digyna, demonstrated much higher microbial activity along with higher NSCs and root nitrogen, suggesting some alpine plant species may acquire nutrients through microbial interactions during snow-covered winter periods. This study provides the first look at the annual phenology of multiple alpine plant species and their associated rhizosphere microbiome. Our results demonstrate that seasonal microbial dynamics are highly influenced by abiotic factors (soil and microclimatic conditions), but plants are able to modulate these conditions through growth and nutrient acquisition strategies. Taken together, seasonality and independent plant species effects cannot be overlooked when assessing habitat nutrient cycling and ecosystem stability.
土壤-植物-微生物的相互作用在大多数陆地生态系统中是不可或缺的,然而植物物候和季节动态在这些关系中的重要性仍然未知。考虑到高寒环境具有明显的季节性,我们在阿尔卑斯山中东部的四个季节(包括积雪覆盖的冬季)取样了8种生长在高寒草甸和亚高寒带两个栖息地的植物,以确定植物的生长策略和与根际微生物参数密切相关的植物营养参数。与低海拔高寒草甸相比,亚高寒草甸植物叶片和根系营养物质浓度和非结构性碳水化合物(NSCs)的季节性变化更大。然而,根际微生物参数(微生物生物量碳(MBC)、胞外酶和群落组成)在高寒草甸地区表现出更多的季节变化。值得注意的是,在亚热带细菌和真菌群落中观察到物候延迟,植物根际分化高峰发生在季节晚于高寒草甸。因此,高海拔地区较长的寒冷条件和较短的生长季节可能为常用的海拔梯度方法增加了一个时间方面的因素,而这一点通常不被考虑在内。冬季取样期间,高寒草甸所有植物根际MBC和酶势均较高,但微生物群落组成存在显著差异。相比之下,亚高原地区不同植物的冬季根际群落没有差异,尽管一种植物Oxyria digyna表现出更高的微生物活性以及更高的NSCs和根氮,这表明一些高山植物可能通过微生物相互作用在积雪覆盖的冬季获得营养。该研究首次揭示了多种高山植物的年物候特征及其相关的根际微生物群。我们的研究结果表明,季节性微生物动态受到非生物因素(土壤和小气候条件)的高度影响,但植物能够通过生长和养分获取策略调节这些条件。综上所述,在评估生境养分循环和生态系统稳定性时,季节性和独立植物物种的影响不容忽视。
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引用次数: 0
A transcontinental experiment elucidates (mal)adaptation of a cosmopolitan plant to climate in space and time 一项横贯大陆的实验阐明了一种世界性植物在空间和时间上对气候的适应性
IF 7.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-15 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70043
Lucas J. Albano, Cristina C. Bastias, Aurélien Estarague, Brandon T. Hendrickson, Simon G. Innes, Nevada King, Courtney M. Patterson, Amelia Tudoran, François Vasseur, Adriana Puentes, Cyrille Violle, Nicholas J. Kooyers, Marc T. J. Johnson

Climate change and the global spread of non-native species are two of the most significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function. Both these phenomena subject populations to novel conditions, either in space (species introductions) or in time (climate change), yet the role of adaptation in how populations respond to these rapid environmental shifts is poorly understood. We conducted a large-scale transcontinental common garden experiment using white clover (Trifolium repens, Fabaceae) to test whether adaptive evolution to spatiotemporal variation in climate could contribute to the ecological success of one of the most widespread plant species in the world. Individuals from 96 populations of Trifolium repens (white clover) from both its native (Europe) and introduced (North America) ranges were planted into four experimental common gardens located in northern (Uppsala, Sweden) and southern (Montpellier, France) Europe, and northern (Mississauga, Canada) and southern (Lafayette, USA) North America. We recorded plant sexual and clonal fitness in each common garden, and assessed whether the strength of local adaptation differed between the native and introduced ranges, and whether populations are rapidly adapting to climate change. Results show that local adaptation was only evident when populations were transplanted into common gardens located in the same range (native or introduced) from which they originated, and was driven by stronger selection (due to climatic factors rather than herbivory) at lower latitudes in both ranges. Our results indicate rapid local adaptation across a large latitudinal gradient in introduced T. repens populations, along with an associated adaptation cost when transplanted back into the native range. We also find evidence of an adaptation lag in the northern common garden in the introduced range, with plants from historically warmer climates exhibiting the greatest fitness. These findings support two major conclusions: (1) white clover can rapidly adapt to spatial variation in climate in its introduced range as well as its native range, and (2) despite rapid adaptation to novel environments, introduced white clover populations are not keeping pace with rapid climate change. Overall, our results provide insight into the role of adaptation in facilitating the ecological success of non-native species in a rapidly changing world.

气候变化和非本地物种的全球传播是对生物多样性和生态系统功能的两大威胁。这两种现象都使种群在空间上(物种引入)或时间上(气候变化)面临新的条件,但人们对种群如何应对这些快速的环境变化的适应作用知之甚少。我们利用白三叶草(Trifolium repens, Fabaceae)进行了一项大规模的跨大陆普通花园实验,以测试对气候时空变化的适应性进化是否有助于世界上最广泛的植物物种之一的生态成功。将96个白三叶草(Trifolium repens,白三叶草)种群的个体种植在位于欧洲北部(瑞典乌普萨拉)和南部(法国蒙佩利埃)以及北美北部(加拿大密西沙加)和南部(美国拉斐特)的四个实验性公共花园中。我们记录了每个普通花园的植物性和无性系适应度,并评估了本地和引进范围之间的局部适应强度是否存在差异,以及种群是否正在迅速适应气候变化。结果表明,只有当种群被移植到位于其起源范围(本地或引进)的共同花园中时,本地适应才会明显,并且在两个范围的低纬度地区受到更强的选择(由于气候因素而不是草食因素)的驱动。我们的研究结果表明,引进的褐毛鼠种群在很大的纬度梯度上快速适应当地,以及移植回本地范围时的相关适应成本。我们还发现,在引进范围内的北方普通花园中存在适应滞后的证据,历史上来自较温暖气候的植物表现出最大的适应性。这些发现支持了两个主要结论:(1)白三叶在其引种地和原生地都能快速适应气候的空间变化;(2)尽管对新环境的适应速度很快,但引种白三叶的种群数量并没有跟上气候的快速变化。总的来说,我们的研究结果为在快速变化的世界中促进非本地物种生态成功的适应作用提供了深入的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Metabolic growth mechanisms and theoretical growth potential of global woody plant communities 全球木本植物群落代谢生长机制及理论生长潜力
IF 7.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70048
Shumiao Shu, Xiaolu Tang, George Kontsevich, Xiaodan Wang, Wanze Zhu, Yangyi Zhao, Wenzhi Wang, Xiaoxiang Zhao, Zhaoyong Hu

Predicting the growth and maximum biomass (Mmax) of woody plant communities (WPCs) remains a central challenge in terrestrial ecology due to the complex and heterogeneous nature of tree growth. While metabolic scaling theory (MST) provides a valuable conceptual framework, it remains limited in its ability to fully explain community-level growth or carbon dynamics. To address this limitation, we developed an iterative growth model for forests (IGMF), built upon an iterative growth framework grounded in MST's core principles and further incorporating the self-thinning effect. The IGMF and its extensions suggest that community-level growth, net primary productivity (NPP), and other key components of the carbon budget—including gross primary productivity, autotrophic respiration, organ turnover, and non-structural carbohydrate storage—may be approximated as functions of current biomass, biomass-specific maintenance respiration, stand age, or Mmax. These relationships provide a basis for estimating the global Mmax of WPCs during 2018–2020 at approximately 1440 ± 26 Pg (1 Pg = 1 × 1015 g), with an additional biomass potential of about 510 Pg under current conditions. However, machine learning projections suggest that this potential may decline by up to 246 Pg by 2100, primarily within evergreen broadleaf forests. Our analyses also indicate that species richness, by promoting functional convergence, can amplify the negative effects of temperature and precipitation seasonality on Mmax. In contrast, warming in the Northern Hemisphere may favor Mmax accumulation in open shrublands. Together, these results help to clarify the growth dynamics of WPCs and suggest a possible shift in the major contributors to terrestrial carbon sequestration—from forests to shrublands—under future climate scenarios.

由于树木生长的复杂性和异质性,预测木本植物群落(WPCs)的生长和最大生物量(mmax)仍然是陆地生态学的核心挑战。虽然代谢标度理论(MST)提供了一个有价值的概念框架,但它在充分解释群落水平生长或碳动态方面的能力仍然有限。为了解决这一限制,我们开发了一个森林的迭代生长模型(IGMF),该模型建立在基于MST核心原则的迭代生长框架之上,并进一步纳入了自疏效应。IGMF及其扩展表明,群落水平生长、净初级生产力(NPP)和碳收支的其他关键组成部分——包括总初级生产力、自养呼吸、器官周转量和非结构性碳水化合物储量——可以近似为当前生物量、生物量特异性维持呼吸、林龄或最大生物量的函数。这些关系为估计2018-2020年全球WPCs最大M值约为1440±26 Pg (1 Pg = 1 × 10 15 g)提供了基础,在当前条件下,额外的生物质潜力约为510 Pg。然而,机器学习预测表明,到2100年,这一潜力可能会下降246 Pg,主要是在常绿阔叶林中。物种丰富度通过促进功能收敛,可以放大温度和降水季节性对最大降水量的负面影响。相反,北半球变暖可能有利于开阔灌丛的max积累。总之,这些结果有助于澄清WPCs的生长动态,并提出在未来气候情景下陆地碳固存的主要贡献者(从森林到灌丛)可能发生的转变。
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引用次数: 0
Does restoring apex predators to food webs restore ecosystems? Reply 恢复食物链的顶端捕食者能恢复生态系统吗?回复
IF 7.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70049
N. Thompson Hobbs, Danielle B. Johnston, Kristin N. Marshall, Evan C. Wolf, David J. Cooper
<p>Beschta and colleagues offer a lengthy, wide-ranging critique of Hobbs et al. (<span>2024</span>) in their Comment (Beschta et al., <span>2025</span>). We focus our Reply to Beschta et al. on the overarching issues they raise, that the scope of inference of our paper is not supported by our research and that we failed to adequately consider extensive evidence of a trophic cascade initiated by the restoration of wolves to the food web of the northern range of Yellowstone National Park.</p><p>It is useful to summarize the line of inference developed in the Hobbs et al. monograph. The paper contributes to ecological theory by addressing the core question: “Can the simplification of food webs caused by the removal of apex predators create conditions in the ecosystem that are resilient to the effects of predator restoration?” using the small stream network of Yellowstone's northern range as a model system. The return of a guild of large carnivores to the northern range of Yellowstone after their protracted absence offered an unusually valuable opportunity to address this question. The state of the ecosystem along the network of small streams changed dramatically during the twentieth century as we describe in the section on History. These changes appeared to be initiated by the loss of apex predators from the system. In particular, tall willows were mostly eliminated from stream sides and engineering of streams by beaver ceased. Established ecological theory on hysteresis and the empirical results of Wolf et al. (<span>2007</span>) (summarized in Figures 1, 2, and 3 of Hobbs et al.) motivated two competing hypotheses on the stability of the small stream ecosystem in response to the disturbance created by restoration of top predators to the food web (Figure 5B,C and the section <i>Experimental Design</i>). The first hypothesis specified that the system failed to exhibit hysteresis, that the restoration of apex predators allowed a rapid return of the conditions that prevailed on the small stream network before the removal of apex predators, especially the presence of tall willows (<i>Salix</i> spp.) and engineering by beaver (<i>Castor canadensis</i>). The second, alternative hypothesis was that the removal of apex predators created hysteresis in the system by interrupting the symbiosis of willows and beaver. These hypotheses were tested in a replicated, manipulative experiment and analysis of a set of sites drawn from areas of the small stream network suitable for colonization by beaver. Analysis of two decades of data from this experiment allowed unambiguous rejection of the first hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that the conditions that emerged while predators were absent from streams capable of being engineered by beaver were not quickly reversed by predator restoration. The conclusions of Hobbs et al., <span>2024</span> extended from development of hypotheses motivated by established ecological theory, from our experimental design, and from
Beschta及其同事在他们的评论(Beschta et al., 2025)中对Hobbs et al.(2024)进行了冗长而广泛的批评。我们将回复Beschta等人的重点放在他们提出的首要问题上,即我们的研究不支持我们论文的推断范围,并且我们未能充分考虑黄石国家公园北部地区狼群恢复食物网引发的营养级联的广泛证据。总结霍布斯等人的专著中发展起来的推理路线是有用的。这篇论文以黄石公园北部地区的小河网络为模型系统,通过解决核心问题:“顶端捕食者的消失导致的食物网的简化,能否在生态系统中创造出适应捕食者恢复影响的条件?”从而为生态学理论做出了贡献。一群大型食肉动物在长期消失后重返黄石公园北部地区,为解决这个问题提供了难得的宝贵机会。正如我们在“历史”一节中所描述的那样,沿着小溪网络的生态系统状态在20世纪发生了巨大变化。这些变化似乎是由系统中顶端捕食者的消失引起的。特别是河边的高柳大部分被清除,河狸修筑溪流的工程也停止了。关于滞后性的既定生态学理论和Wolf等人(2007)的实证结果(Hobbs等人的图1、2和3进行了总结)提出了两种相互竞争的假设,即小溪生态系统在应对顶级捕食者恢复对食物网造成的干扰时的稳定性(图5B、C和实验设计部分)。第一个假设指出,该系统没有表现出滞后性,即顶端捕食者的恢复允许在移除顶端捕食者之前在小型河流网络中普遍存在的条件迅速恢复,特别是高柳树(Salix spp.)和海狸工程(Castor canadensis)的存在。第二种假设是,顶端捕食者的消失通过打断柳树和海狸的共生关系,在系统中造成了滞后。这些假设在一项重复的、可操作的实验和分析中得到了验证,这些实验和分析是从适合海狸定居的小河网络区域中抽取的一组地点。对该实验20年数据的分析明确否定了第一个假设,并由此得出结论:当海狸改造的河流中没有捕食者时出现的情况,不会因为捕食者的恢复而迅速逆转。Hobbs et al., 2024的结论来自于由既定生态理论驱动的假设的发展,来自于我们的实验设计,以及我们对实验数据的严格统计分析。Beschta等人根据自己的研究可能不同意这些结论,但在他们的评论中并没有显示Hobbs et al.(2024)的推理路线存在错误。我们强调,我们的推断方法的优势在于,我们评估了关于生态系统(北部山脉的小河网络)如何响应扰动(顶级捕食者的恢复)的替代观点的证据。考虑对状态和过程的不同解释是可靠科学的核心,我们很快就会重新审视这个真理。这一段的其余部分清楚地表明,我们关于“失败”的结论仅限于我们从概念框架中发展出来的其他假设,特别是顶端捕食者的恢复并没有导致麋鹿-草原状态在小溪网络上逆转到海狸-柳树状态,这些想法在我们的图2和相关讨论中得到了详细的证明。Beschta等人断言,我们的推断范围取决于对恢复的任意定义。我们认为这种批评毫无根据。我们在图2中证明了恢复的定义以及与之相关的文本。这个理由没有任何武断之处。Beschta等人还认为,我们的推断应限于我们所研究的小河网络的30%的河段,而不包括历史上没有被海狸占据的地点。从严格的统计意义上讲,这一论点是正确的,但对我们的推断的这种狭隘限制忽略了对海狸工程对生态系统状态和过程的不成比例影响的公认理解(Larsen等人,2021;Naiman & d<s:1> camp, 1997)。海狸局部干扰的影响扩展到整个流域。一个退化的生态系统如果不恢复其干扰状态,就不能被认为是恢复的。Beschta等人的论点。 关于我们的研究设计的过分宽泛的推断是不准确的。Beschta等人写道,在我们的实验中,控制地点被选择为代表“干燥条件”,这扭曲了我们描述选择地点的标准(见实验设计)。此外,正如Beschta等人所写,这些标准同样适用于治疗组和对照组,而不仅仅适用于对照组。他们还认为,我们的实验“……排除了最有弹性、最多样化、最多产的河边地点,在那里,柳树由地下水或高水位支撑,错过了恢复海狸柳树状态的重要过程的关键要素。”我们选择在没有地下水流入溪流造成的高水位的地点工作,这样我们就可以测试水的可用性对柳树生长的重要性,以及模拟海狸结构所复制的海狸造成的干扰制度的作用。此外,许多地下水补给点是泥炭聚集沼泽,而不是河岸生态系统。他们的说法在一定程度上是正确的,但它忽略了我们分析的广泛结果(表2,图14和15),我们表明地下水可用性的低可变性加速了柳树的生长。我们工作的一个新颖贡献是表明迟滞的强度取决于能够支持柳树生长的地下水可用性的景观变异性(图21和相关讨论)。由此可见,我们利用自己的设计,准确地表达了Besctha等人认为我们无法表达的观点。我们显示(图21),在地下水资源丰富的地区,海狸柳树状态会迅速恢复。Beschta等人并没有谈到我们论文的总体目标。我们试图通过考虑顶端捕食者的恢复何时能迅速扭转其损失的影响来推进生态理论,我们称之为互惠效应。我们在图1及其相关的讨论中全面地发展了这些想法,预测简单的食物链将表现出相互作用,而复杂的食物网则不会。我们使用黄石公园作为模型系统来推进这些想法,结果表明我们的结果与预测一致,即由于捕食者的消失而导致的生态系统退化可能不会通过捕食者的恢复而迅速逆转,因为在没有捕食者的情况下发生的生态系统状态和过程的变化,特别是干扰制度的变化,会产生滞后。所有试图利用实证研究来推进理论的研究者都必须描述他们所研究的特定系统如何提供一般见解。读者个人可以判断,我们为推进理论所提供的总体见解是否超过了数据和分析所提供的支持。Beschta等人提出了许多担忧,即我们未能承认大量证据表明狼的重新引入通过营养级联启动了木质落叶植物恢复的轨迹。在我们的辩护中,我们确实回顾了狼群重新引入后小溪沿岸柳树生长的所有研究,包括那些主张营养级联的研究。我们明确指出,这些研究得出的结论与我们的不同。我们提供了这些差异的原因(见我们的论文“与北方地区柳树的其他研究的比较”)。我们没有回顾Beschta等人认为我们应该包括的其他植物群落和脊椎动物消费者的研究,因为我们认为这些研究与我们论文的核心思想无关。然而,忽略这些研究的一个更重要的动机是,我们认为它们提供了不可靠的推断。我们的结论是基于两条思路的推理:实验对因果推理的重要性,以及考虑狼群重新引入后植物生长趋势的替代解释的要求。有一种开创性的假说认为,狼群的重新引入引发了由捕食风险介导的营养级联反应,从而启动了黄石公园北部地区植物群落的恢复(Ripple & Beschta, 2004),这激发了科学家和公众的想象力。这是个好主意。科学用经过验证的方法获得的证据来面对思想,特别是操纵性实验,统计上稳健且设计适当的抽样,认可的分析,以及对状态和过程的竞争性解释的评估。科学往往表明,生态系统的过程比最初认为的要复杂得多。我们的专著增加了大量证据,揭示了狼重新引入黄石公园后发生的事件远比营养级联假说所预期的要复杂得多(Bilyeu等人,2008;Brice等人,2022;Brice, Larsen等人,2025);Creel等人;Christianson, 2009; Eisenberg等人,2013;Kauffman等人。 , 2010;Kohl et al., 2018;
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引用次数: 0
Does restoring apex predators to food webs restore ecosystems? Comment 恢复食物链的顶端捕食者能恢复生态系统吗?评论
IF 7.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70050
Robert L. Beschta, Luke E. Painter, William J. Ripple, J. Boone Kauffman
<p>Trophic cascades, which represent the indirect effects of predators that extend downward through multiple trophic levels and food webs, have gained significant recognition in the scientific community (Ripple et al., <span>2016</span>; Terborgh & Estes, <span>2010</span>). In northern Yellowstone's ungulate winter range, or northern range, intensive herbivory by Rocky Mountain elk (<i>Cervus canadensis</i>) was a dominant force across the landscape during the seven decades when gray wolves (<i>Canis lupus</i>) were absent, suppressing the growth of deciduous woody plants and affecting the availability of resources and physical habitat for other species (Barmore, <span>2003</span>; Jonas, <span>1955</span>; Kay, <span>1990</span>). However, following the 1995–1996 reintroduction of wolves, thus completing the park's large carnivore guild, studies of willows (<i>Salix</i> spp.) in the northern range reported that some of them were again growing taller due to a decrease in herbivory—a trophic cascade resulting from large carnivore restoration (e.g., Baril et al., <span>2011</span>; Beyer et al., <span>2007</span>).</p><p>Hobbs et al. (<span>2024</span>), hereafter referred to as Hobbs et al., conducted research to evaluate the effects of a restored large carnivore guild on willow dynamics by studying their heights over time in northern Yellowstone riparian zones and concluded that apex predator restoration was unsuccessful in restoring riparian willow communities. This conclusion relied on a narrow and arbitrary definition of a trophic cascade and restoration success. Specifically, they indicated that since tall willows were largely lost from the northern range within two decades following apex predator loss, a similarly abrupt recovery of tall willows following apex predator restoration was necessary for evidence of a trophic cascade and willow restoration. We demonstrate, based on published research, that a trophic cascade in northern Yellowstone is reversing the effects of large predator loss to multiple taxa and food webs. Although specific historical conditions in riparian areas have not been fully replicated or restored, important ecological processes have been changed and a trajectory of ecosystem restoration is underway.</p><p>Hobbs et al. conducted their 20-year study (2001–2020) of willows growing on riparian floodplains and terraces along streams in the park's northern range. Based on those results and their interpretation of what constitutes restoration, they developed far-reaching conclusions: “Our two decades of research revealed that the restoration of apex predators to a food web after a long absence <i>failed to reverse the effects of their loss from the food web</i>” (p. 18). At face value, their comments would lead readers to believe the restored large carnivore guild has had little, if any, influence on the ecosystem structure and function of northern Yellowstone's riparian areas.</p><p>Hobbs et al. (p. 27) indicated a numb
营养级联,代表了捕食者通过多个营养水平和食物网向下延伸的间接影响,已经在科学界得到了显著的认可(Ripple et al., 2016; Terborgh & Estes, 2010)。在黄石公园北部的有蹄类冬季区或北部区,落基山麋鹿(Cervus canadensis)的密集食草在灰狼(Canis lupus)缺席的70年里是整个景观的主导力量,抑制了落叶木本植物的生长,影响了其他物种的资源和自然栖息地的可用性(Barmore, 2003; Jonas, 1955; Kay, 1990)。然而,随着1995-1996年狼群的重新引入,从而完成了公园的大型食肉动物协会,对北部地区柳树(Salix spp.)的研究报告称,由于食草动物的减少,其中一些柳树又长得更高了——这是大型食肉动物恢复造成的营养级联(例如,Baril et al., 2011; Beyer et al., 2007)。Hobbs et al.(2024)(以下简称Hobbs et al.)通过研究黄石公园北部河岸地带的柳树高度随时间的变化,研究了大型食肉动物群落恢复后对柳树动态的影响,并得出结论:顶端捕食者恢复对河岸柳树群落的恢复是不成功的。这一结论依赖于对营养级联和恢复成功的狭隘和武断的定义。具体来说,他们指出,由于在顶端捕食者消失后的20年内,北方地区的高柳大量消失,因此在顶端捕食者恢复后,高柳的类似突然恢复是营养级联和柳树恢复的必要证据。根据已发表的研究,我们证明黄石公园北部的营养级联正在逆转大型捕食者减少对多个分类群和食物网的影响。虽然沿岸区特定的历史条件还没有完全复制或恢复,但重要的生态过程已经改变,生态系统正在恢复。Hobbs等人进行了为期20年的研究(2001-2020),研究对象是生长在公园北部河流沿岸洪泛平原和梯田上的柳树。基于这些结果和他们对什么是恢复的解释,他们得出了影响深远的结论:“我们二十年的研究表明,在食物网长期消失后,顶端捕食者恢复到食物网并不能扭转它们从食物网中消失的影响”(第18页)。从表面上看,他们的评论会让读者相信,恢复的大型食肉动物协会对黄石公园北部河岸地区的生态系统结构和功能几乎没有影响。Hobbs等人(第27页)指出,许多研究声称,随着灰狼的回归,黄石公园北部的生态系统已经恢复,进一步表明这种说法可能是错误的或夸大的。然而,最近对Hobbs等人确定的7项黄石研究的评估发现,没有一项研究声称黄石北部生态系统已恢复到以前的状态(Beschta等人,2023);因此,霍布斯等人批评他们没有主张的东西。虽然未来不太可能复制过去,但北部山脉的研究已经并将继续显示出由营养级联引起的重要植被变化的证据,这有助于河岸地区和生态系统的其他方面的生态恢复(见Beschta &amp; Ripple, 2016; Ripple & Beschta, 2012)。即便如此,考虑到数十年来麋鹿密集的草食对河岸植物群落及其溪流通道的影响程度,以及与气候变化(Beschta & Ripple, 2016)和野牛种群激增(bison bison)相关的新限制,生态系统的恢复仍需要时间(Beschta等人,2020;Kauffman等人,2022;Painter等人,2023)。Hobbs等人以及他们之前发表的研究的主要结论是,柳树生长在相对干燥的河岸洪泛平原和与切割河道相关的梯田上,需要海狸完全恢复以前允许这些植物在那里生存的水文环境。我们会注意到,恢复海狸柳树的状态通常是一个四个阶段的过程:(1)必须减少柳树被压制的历史原因,即长期密集的有蹄类动物的使用;(2)柳树与白杨(Populus tremuloides)和其他落叶木本树种一起,可以生长成高大的灌木丛,能够养活海狸;(3)河狸回巢筑坝,扩大柳树生境;(4)这种扩大的栖息地能够支持后代的海狸。事实上,对河岸植被的各种研究,包括Hobbs等人的研究。 研究表明,随着大型食肉动物的恢复和麋鹿食草动物的减少,所有这些阶段都出现在黄石公园北部的一些地区。我们认为,这些变化具有重要的生态意义,霍布斯等人认为这种复杂情况是恢复失败,营养级联无效的结论是不正确的。事实上,恰恰相反。最近一项评估柳树树冠体积变化的分析提供了另一个挑战霍布斯等人断言的例子,即黄石公园北部地区的营养级联实验是失败的。在该分析中,Ripple et al.(2025)利用Cooper and Hobbs(2023)的2001-2020年柳树高度数据估算了单个柳树树冠体积的时间变化。由于柳树树冠生物量和树冠体积高度相关(Yao et al., 2021),任何树冠体积的增加都是生物量变化的合理替代指标,生物量变化通常用于评估营养级联的强度。Ripple等人(2025)的分析结果表明,柳树树冠体积增加了1500%(图1),这一效应大于Borer等人(2005)在荟萃分析中总结的绝大多数营养级联研究。Hobbs等人假设,海狸消失后,河道的切断即使减少了草食性,也会阻止柳树的恢复,并认为这是对顶端捕食者恢复有弹性的另一种稳定状态。Hobbs等人研究的核心是选择四个有柳树、历史上有海狸存在的河岸遗址和一个切割的河道。在每个地点,建立了一个对照地块,在那里有蹄动物可以接触到柳树。还建立了三个处理地块(即:(1)围栏以防止有蹄类草食,(2)河道内水坝以提高地下水位,(3)围栏和水坝),这些处理有望提高柳树的生长率。在他们的实验过程中,处理地块内的许多柳树长到了恢复群落的预期高度(即平均高度≥200厘米,见Marshall et al., 2013)。相比之下,经历环境条件(即对照地块)的柳树高度增加较少。因为对照地点是在干燥、切割的条件下选择的,所以用它们来代表黄石公园北部柳树地点的“环境条件”是不合适的。还根据有限的标准选择了其他“观测地点”。即使在选址方面存在这些限制,到2020年,Hobbs等人的对照和观测站点中,近30%的柳树平均高度≥200 cm,其余许多站点呈上升趋势。考虑到“环境”地点的平均柳树高度持续上升的趋势,如果研究再持续几年,似乎在其他地点可能会超过200厘米的阈值。因此,即使对于这些相对干燥的柳树场地,仅根据这个高度阈值得出恢复失败的结论似乎是武断和过早的。Hobbs等人指出,退化生态系统的恢复可能是复杂的,从麋鹿-草原到海狸-柳树状态的演替路径可能表现出滞后性,我们同意这一结论。根据数十年来有蹄类动物的密集使用和海狸的减少对植被和河道的影响程度,生态系统的恢复可能采取各种途径,可能不会很快恢复到历史上存在的确切条件。因此,我们认为Hobbs等人认为目前只有完全恢复的海狸-柳树状态才能作为恢复成功的主要衡量标准,这是一种过于简单的视角,用于评估整个公园河岸地区的营养级联效应和恢复过程,并低估了目前正在进行的许多大型食肉动物的级联营养效应。Hobbs等人关于缺乏恢复成功的结论与观察到的Blacktail Deer Creek沿岸的变化(图1)以及他们自己的数据不一致。这也与大型食肉动物恢复后各种植被实地研究的广泛证据不一致。在狼重新引入后的二十年里,对北部地区河岸地带落叶植物的24项研究进行了综合(Beschta & Ripple, 2016
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引用次数: 0
How interactions between temperature and resources scale from populations to communities in microbes 温度和资源之间的相互作用如何从微生物种群扩展到微生物群落
IF 7.5 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1002/ecm.70045
Colin T. Kremer, Mridul K. Thomas, Christopher A. Klausmeier, Elena Litchman

Temperature and resources are fundamental factors that determine the ability of organisms to function and survive, while influencing their individual and population growth. Major bodies of ecological theory have emerged, largely independently, to address temperature and resource effects. It remains a pressing challenge to unite these ideas and determine the interactive effects of temperature and resources on ecological patterns and processes, and their consequences across ecological scales. Here, we propose a simple, physiologically motivated model capturing the interactive effects of temperature and resources (specifically, inorganic nutrients and light) on the growth of microbial ectotherms over multiple ecological scales. From this model we derive a set of key predictions. At the population level, we predict (1) interactive effects of resource limitation on thermal traits (parameters describing effects of temperature on growth), (2) consistent differences in the temperature sensitivity of auto- and heterotrophs, and (3) the existence of specific trade-offs between traits that determine the shape of thermal performance curves. At the community level, we derive predictions for (4) how limitation by nutrients and light can change the relationship between temperature and productivity. All four predictions are upheld, based on our analyses of a large compilation of laboratory data on microbial growth, as well as field experiments with marine phytoplankton communities. Collectively, our modeling framework provides a new way of thinking about the interplay between two fundamental aspects of life—temperature and resources—and how they constrain and structure ecological properties across scales. Providing links between population and community responses to simultaneous changes in abiotic factors is essential to anticipating the multifaceted effects of global change.

温度和资源是决定生物功能和生存能力的基本因素,同时影响它们的个体和种群增长。主要的生态理论机构已经出现,很大程度上是独立的,以解决温度和资源的影响。将这些观点统一起来,确定温度和资源对生态模式和过程的相互作用,以及它们在生态尺度上的后果,仍然是一个紧迫的挑战。在这里,我们提出了一个简单的,生理驱动的模型,捕捉温度和资源(特别是无机营养物质和光)在多个生态尺度上对微生物变温动物生长的相互作用。从这个模型中我们得出了一组关键的预测。在种群水平上,我们预测(1)资源限制对热性状(描述温度对生长影响的参数)的交互效应,(2)自养和异养生物对温度敏感性的一致差异,以及(3)决定热性能曲线形状的性状之间存在特定的权衡。在群落水平上,我们对(4)营养和光照的限制如何改变温度和生产力之间的关系进行了预测。基于我们对微生物生长的大量实验室数据汇编的分析,以及对海洋浮游植物群落的实地实验,这四个预测都得到了支持。总的来说,我们的建模框架提供了一种思考生命两个基本方面之间相互作用的新方法——温度和资源——以及它们如何在不同尺度上约束和构建生态特性。在人口和社区对非生物因素同时变化的反应之间建立联系,对于预测全球变化的多方面影响至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
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