Enhancing Space Situational Awareness to Mitigate Risk: A Case Study in the Misidentification of Starlink Satellites as UAP in Commercial Aviation

Abstract

Over the past several years, the misidentification of SpaceX Starlink satellites as Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) by pilots and laypersons has generated unnecessary aviation risk and confusion. The many deployment and orbital evolution strategies, coupled with changing sun specular reflection angles, contribute to this gap in space situational awareness. In this paper we present a case analysis of an incident that generated multiple, corroborating reports of a UAP from five pilots on two commercial airline flights over the Pacific Ocean on August 10th, 2022. This incident included two cell phone photos and a video of an unrecognizable and possibly anomalous phenomenon. We then use supplemental two-line elements (TLEs) for the Starlink train of satellites launched that same day and Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) data from the flight with the photographs to reconstruct a view of these satellites from the cockpit at the time and place of the sighting. The success of this work demonstrates an approach that could, in principle, warn aviators about satellites that could be visible in unusual or novel illumination configurations, thus increasing space situational awareness and supporting aviation safety. We conclude with recommendations for governments and satellite operators to provide better a-priori data that can be used to create advisories to aviators and the public. The automated simulation of known specular reflection off constellations of satellites could also support researchers investigating sightings of unfamiliar aerial or aerospace objects as likely being from normal versus novel space events.