Using ICON Satellite Data to Forecast Equatorial Ionospheric Instability Throughout 2022

IF 3.7 2区 地球科学 Space Weather Pub Date : 2024-03-14 DOI:10.1029/2023sw003817
D. L. Hysell, A. Kirchman, B. J. Harding, R. A. Heelis, S. L. England, H. U. Frey, S. B. Mende
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Abstract

Numerical forecasts of plasma convective instability in the postsunset equatorial ionosphere are made based on data from the Ionospheric Connections Explorer satellite (ICON) following the method outlined in a previous study. Data are selected from pairs of successive orbits. Data from the first orbit in the pair are used to initialize and force a numerical forecast simulation, and data from the second orbit are used to validate the results 104 min later. Data from the IVM plasma density and drifts instrument and the MIGHTI red-line thermospheric winds instrument are used to force the forecast model. Thirteen (16) data set pairs from August (October), 2022, are considered. Forecasts produced one false negative in August and another false negative in October. Possible causes of forecast discrepancies are evaluated including the failure to initialize the numerical simulations with electron density profiles measured concurrently. Volume emission 135.6-nm OI profiles from the Far Ultraviolet (FUV) instrument on ICON are considered in the evaluation.
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利用 ICON 卫星数据预测 2022 年全年赤道电离层不稳定性
根据电离层连接探测器卫星(ICON)的数据,按照先前研究中概述的方法,对日落后赤道电离层的等离子体对流不稳定性进行了数值预测。数据选自成对的连续轨道。成对轨道中第一个轨道的数据用于初始化和强制数值预报模拟,第二个轨道的数据用于 104 分钟后验证结果。来自 IVM 等离子体密度和漂移仪器以及 MIGHTI 红线热层风仪器的数据被用于强制预报模型。考虑了 2022 年 8 月(10 月)的十三(16)对数据集。预测结果在 8 月和 10 月分别产生了一个假负值和另一个假负值。评估了造成预报偏差的可能原因,包括未能根据同时测量的电子密度剖面进行数值模拟初始化。评估中考虑了 ICON 远紫外(FUV)仪器的 135.6 纳米 OI 体积发射剖面图。
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