Resource forecasting under the action of degradation processes with a catastrophic section on the example of universal spindles liners of rolling mills

Abstract

The problem of forecasting the beginning of the repair effects of the sheet-rolling equipment has been examined using the example of universal spindle liners. Executive intervention in the case of critical wear of the liners allows you to avoid emergency situations associated with the failure of the universal spindle, and therefore increases the productivity of the rolling mill and its profitability. Method of setting the replacement date of liners, which for the considered case is on the 29th day of their operation, has been proposed. The operation of liners in the zone of emergency wear has been studied, the developed model determines that when working in the zone of catastrophic wear, the use of liners is possible for no more than 20 h. The task of forecasting the resource under the influence of degradation processes with a catastrophic section has been solved. The determination of the technical condition in this case is carried out on the basis of parametric models, where the rate of change of the diagnostic parameter is controlled. The critical value of the speed is determined on the basis of a constant trend, which is multiplied by the number of the reserve, equal to n_V = 8–10.