An Empirical Assessment of Characteristics and Optimal Portfolios

Abstract

We implement a dynamically regularized, bootstrapped two-stage out-of-sample parametric portfolio policy to evaluate characteristics’ efficacy in the conditional stock return-generating process in the metric of expected power utility. Traditional characteristics, such as momentum and size afforded large utility gains before 1999. These opportunities have since vanished. Overfitting—imprecision in weight estimation—is correlated with the optimal portfolio’s variance. Therefore, it is not a problem for power utility investors with coefficients of relative aversion greater than four. For more risk-tolerant investors, we successfully reduce estimation error by increasing the curvature of the loss function relative to the investor’s utility function. (JEL L200; C110; C350)