{"title":"Predicting the Equity Premium with Combination Forecasts: A Reappraisal","authors":"Sebastian Denk, Gunter Löffler","doi":"10.1093/rapstu/raae009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper reappraises the usefulness of combining individual forecasts for predicting the U.S. equity premium. For comparison, we also consider penalized regression and dimension reduction approaches. We fail to find evidence of predictive ability in recent decades, regardless of the forecasting method used. Further analysis shows that an increase in the correlation of individual forecast errors is an important factor in the declining performance of combination forecasts. (JEL C53, G12, G17)","PeriodicalId":21144,"journal":{"name":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","volume":"109 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Review of Asset Pricing Studies","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raae009","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper reappraises the usefulness of combining individual forecasts for predicting the U.S. equity premium. For comparison, we also consider penalized regression and dimension reduction approaches. We fail to find evidence of predictive ability in recent decades, regardless of the forecasting method used. Further analysis shows that an increase in the correlation of individual forecast errors is an important factor in the declining performance of combination forecasts. (JEL C53, G12, G17)
期刊介绍：
The Review of Asset Pricing Studies (RAPS) is a journal that aims to publish high-quality research in asset pricing. It evaluates papers based on their original contribution to the understanding of asset pricing. The topics covered in RAPS include theoretical and empirical models of asset prices and returns, empirical methodology, macro-finance, financial institutions and asset prices, information and liquidity in asset markets, behavioral investment studies, asset market structure and microstructure, risk analysis, hedge funds, mutual funds, alternative investments, and other related topics.
Manuscripts submitted to RAPS must be exclusive to the journal and should not have been previously published. Starting in 2020, RAPS will publish three issues per year, owing to an increasing number of high-quality submissions. The journal is indexed in EconLit, Emerging Sources Citation IndexTM, RePEc (Research Papers in Economics), and Scopus.
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