Should we ignore SARS-CoV-2 disease?

IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2024-03-20 DOI:10.1017/S0950268824000487
Igor Nesteruk
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Abstract

Current World Health Organization (WHO) reports claim a decline in COVID-19 testing and reporting of new infections. To discuss the consequences of ignoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the endemic characteristics of the disease in 2023 with the ones estimated before using 2022 data sets are compared. The accumulated numbers of cases and deaths reported to the WHO by the 10 most infected countries and global figures were used to calculate the average daily numbers of cases DCC and deaths DDC per capita and case fatality rates (CFRs = DDC/DCC) for two periods in 2023. In some countries, the DDC values can be higher than the upper 2022 limit and exceed the seasonal influenza mortality. The increase in CFR in 2023 shows that SARS-CoV-2 infection is still dangerous. The numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita in 2022 and 2023 do not demonstrate downward trends with the increase in the percentages of fully vaccinated people and boosters. The reasons may be both rapid mutations of the coronavirus, which reduced the effectiveness of vaccines and led to a large number of re-infections, and inappropriate management.

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我们应该忽视 SARS-CoV-2 疾病吗?
世界卫生组织(WHO)目前的报告称 COVID-19 检测和新感染报告有所下降。为了讨论忽视严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒-2(SARS-CoV-2)感染的后果,我们将 2023 年的疾病流行特征与之前使用 2022 年数据集估计的疾病流行特征进行了比较。根据 10 个疫情最严重国家向世界卫生组织报告的累计病例数和死亡数以及全球数字,计算出 2023 年两个时期的日均人均病例数 DCC 和死亡数 DDC 以及病例死亡率(CFR=DDC/DCC)。在一些国家,DDC 值可能高于 2022 年的上限,并超过季节性流感死亡率。2023 年 CFR 的上升表明,SARS-CoV-2 感染仍然很危险。2022 年和 2023 年的 COVID-19 病例数和人均死亡数并没有随着全面接种者和强化接种者比例的增加而呈现下降趋势。究其原因,可能是冠状病毒的快速变异降低了疫苗的有效性,导致大量再感染,以及管理不当。
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来源期刊
Epidemiology and Infection
Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
2.40%
发文量
366
审稿时长
3-6 weeks
期刊介绍: Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.
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