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THE EVOLUTION AND EPIDEMIOLOGY OF H3N2 CANINE INFLUENZA VIRUS AFTER 20 YEARS IN DOGS.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-03-05 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000251
Brian R Wasik, Lambodhar Damodaran, Maria A Maltepes, Ian E H Voorhees, Christian M Leutenegger, Sandra Newbury, Louise H Moncla, Benjamin D Dalziel, Laura B Goodman, Colin R Parrish
{"title":"THE EVOLUTION AND EPIDEMIOLOGY OF H3N2 CANINE INFLUENZA VIRUS AFTER 20 YEARS IN DOGS.","authors":"Brian R Wasik, Lambodhar Damodaran, Maria A Maltepes, Ian E H Voorhees, Christian M Leutenegger, Sandra Newbury, Louise H Moncla, Benjamin D Dalziel, Laura B Goodman, Colin R Parrish","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000251","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825000251","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"1-38"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143556136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Epidemiologic profile of Community-Acquired Clostridioides difficile infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000202
Neri Alejandro Álvarez-Villalobos, Fernando Gerardo Ruiz-Hernandez, Ana Camila Méndez-Arellano, Jhoan Manuel Azamar-Márquez, Adrían Camacho-Ortiz
{"title":"Epidemiologic profile of Community-Acquired Clostridioides difficile infections: A systematic review and meta-analysis.","authors":"Neri Alejandro Álvarez-Villalobos, Fernando Gerardo Ruiz-Hernandez, Ana Camila Méndez-Arellano, Jhoan Manuel Azamar-Márquez, Adrían Camacho-Ortiz","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825000202","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"1-51"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143540604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bartonella tracing in wild rodents in northwestern Mexico.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000238
Adriana M Fernández-González, Andrés M López-Pérez, Angel Herrera-Mares, Andrea Chaves, Fabiola Ramírez-Corona, Gerardo Suzán

Bartonella is a widely distributed Gram-negative bacterium that includes species that are capable of causing illness in humans. Rodents represent one of the main reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens, and monitoring their populations can provide valuable insights into human health. We conducted a surveillance study of rodents from two north-western states of Mexico (Baja California and Chihuahua) to investigate the prevalence and genetic diversity of Bartonella by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and sequencing of the citrate synthase (gltA) gene. A total of 586 rodents belonging to 28 species were captured, and 408 were tested for Bartonella spp. The overall Bartonella spp. prevalence was 39.71%. The prevalence found in Chihuahua was higher (42.80%) than in Baja California (32.52%), and rodents such as Neotoma albigula, Neotoma mexicana, Peromyscus boylii, and Chaetodipus baileyi had the highest prevalence. The gltA sequences revealed seven genetic variants, some of which were obtained from Peromyscus and Dipodomys rodents and were associated with Bartonella species of human health concern, such as B. grahamii and B. vinsonii subsp. arupensis. In addition, a sequence obtained from a Peromyscus maniculatus was clustered with Candidatus Bartonella rudakovii, a previously unreported association. This study provides valuable data and new insight into the Bartonella-hosts interactions in rodent species in north-western Mexico.

{"title":"<i>Bartonella</i> tracing in wild rodents in northwestern Mexico.","authors":"Adriana M Fernández-González, Andrés M López-Pérez, Angel Herrera-Mares, Andrea Chaves, Fabiola Ramírez-Corona, Gerardo Suzán","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000238","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268825000238","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Bartonella</i> is a widely distributed Gram-negative bacterium that includes species that are capable of causing illness in humans. Rodents represent one of the main reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens, and monitoring their populations can provide valuable insights into human health. We conducted a surveillance study of rodents from two north-western states of Mexico (Baja California and Chihuahua) to investigate the prevalence and genetic diversity of <i>Bartonella</i> by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and sequencing of the citrate synthase (<i>gltA</i>) gene. A total of 586 rodents belonging to 28 species were captured, and 408 were tested for <i>Bartonella</i> spp. The overall <i>Bartonella</i> spp. prevalence was 39.71%. The prevalence found in Chihuahua was higher (42.80%) than in Baja California (32.52%), and rodents such as <i>Neotoma albigula</i>, <i>Neotoma mexicana</i>, <i>Peromyscus boylii</i>, and <i>Chaetodipus baileyi</i> had the highest prevalence. The <i>gltA</i> sequences revealed seven genetic variants, some of which were obtained from <i>Peromyscus</i> and <i>Dipodomys</i> rodents and were associated with <i>Bartonella</i> species of human health concern, such as <i>B. grahamii</i> and <i>B. vinsonii</i> subsp. <i>arupensis.</i> In addition, a sequence obtained from a <i>Peromyscus maniculatus</i> was clustered with <i>Candidatus</i> Bartonella rudakovii, a previously unreported association. This study provides valuable data and new insight into the <i>Bartonella</i>-hosts interactions in rodent species in north-western Mexico.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e42"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143523062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in four prisons in Colombia.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000184
Zulma Vanessa Rueda, Mariana Herrera-Diaz, Diana Marin, Lucelly Lopez, Teresa Realpe, Laura Maria Almeida-Rueda, Luisa Arroyave, Nestor Rueda, Gloria Isabel Niño-Cruz, Uriel Hurtado, Nataly Alvarez, Yoav Keynan, Maria Patricia Arbelaez

Our study aimed to describe the transmission dynamics and genotypic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in people deprived of liberty (PDL) in four Colombian prisons. Our cohort study included 64 PDL with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosed in four Colombian prisons. The 132 isolates were genotyped using 24-mycobacterial interspersed repeated units-variable number tandem repeats (MIRUs-VNTR). A cluster was defined when ≥2 isolates from different PDL had the same genotype. Tuberculosis acquired in prison was considered when ≥2 persons were within the same cluster and had an epidemiological link. We mapped the place of residence before incarceration and within prisons. We assessed overcrowding and ventilation conditions in the prison that had clusters. We found that the most frequent genotypes were LAM (56.8%) and Haarlem (36.4%), and 45.3% of the PDL diagnosed with tuberculosis were clustered. Most PDL diagnosed in prison came from neighborhoods in Medellin with a high TB incidence. M. tuberculosis infection acquired in prison was detected in 19% of PDL, 9.4% had mixed infection, 3.1% reinfection, and 1.6% relapse. Clusters only appeared in one prison, in cell blocks with overcrowding >100%, and inadequate ventilation conditions. Prisons require the implementation of effective respiratory infection control measures to prevent M. tuberculosis transmission.

{"title":"Transmission of <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> in four prisons in Colombia.","authors":"Zulma Vanessa Rueda, Mariana Herrera-Diaz, Diana Marin, Lucelly Lopez, Teresa Realpe, Laura Maria Almeida-Rueda, Luisa Arroyave, Nestor Rueda, Gloria Isabel Niño-Cruz, Uriel Hurtado, Nataly Alvarez, Yoav Keynan, Maria Patricia Arbelaez","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000184","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268825000184","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Our study aimed to describe the transmission dynamics and genotypic diversity of <i>Mycobacterium tuberculosis</i> in people deprived of liberty (PDL) in four Colombian prisons. Our cohort study included 64 PDL with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosed in four Colombian prisons. The 132 isolates were genotyped using 24-mycobacterial interspersed repeated units-variable number tandem repeats (MIRUs-VNTR). A cluster was defined when ≥2 isolates from different PDL had the same genotype. Tuberculosis acquired in prison was considered when ≥2 persons were within the same cluster and had an epidemiological link. We mapped the place of residence before incarceration and within prisons. We assessed overcrowding and ventilation conditions in the prison that had clusters. We found that the most frequent genotypes were LAM (56.8%) and Haarlem (36.4%), and 45.3% of the PDL diagnosed with tuberculosis were clustered. Most PDL diagnosed in prison came from neighborhoods in Medellin with a high TB incidence. <i>M. tuberculosis</i> infection acquired in prison was detected in 19% of PDL, 9.4% had mixed infection, 3.1% reinfection, and 1.6% relapse. Clusters only appeared in one prison, in cell blocks with overcrowding >100%, and inadequate ventilation conditions. Prisons require the implementation of effective respiratory infection control measures to prevent <i>M. tuberculosis</i> transmission.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e43"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143482532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Are children and adolescents living with HIV in Europe and South Africa at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 and poor COVID-19 outcomes?
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000135
Charlotte Jackson, Siobhan Crichton, Alasdair Bamford, Arantxa Berzosa Sanchez, Kimberly C Gilmour, Tessa Goetghebuer, Sarah May Johnson, Ali Judd, Antoni Noguera-Julian, Marthe Le Prevost, Vasiliki Spoulou, Kate Sturgeon, Alla Volokha, Heather J Zar, Intira Jeannie Collins
{"title":"Are children and adolescents living with HIV in Europe and South Africa at higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 and poor COVID-19 outcomes?","authors":"Charlotte Jackson, Siobhan Crichton, Alasdair Bamford, Arantxa Berzosa Sanchez, Kimberly C Gilmour, Tessa Goetghebuer, Sarah May Johnson, Ali Judd, Antoni Noguera-Julian, Marthe Le Prevost, Vasiliki Spoulou, Kate Sturgeon, Alla Volokha, Heather J Zar, Intira Jeannie Collins","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825000135","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"1-36"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143467378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A comprehensive review of the childhood vaccination landscape in Malaysia.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882500024X
Nor Kamila Kamaruzaman, Marco Rizzi, Katie Attwell

Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective and successful public health interventions to prevent infectious diseases. Governments worldwide have tried to optimize vaccination coverage, including using vaccine mandates. This review of recent literature and policy aims to provide a comprehensive overview of Malaysia's childhood vaccination landscape. The document analysis was used to identify and examine information from government policy documents, official government media statements, mainstream news content, and research papers. Content analysis was then employed to analyze the gathered information. Despite the successes of Malaysia's National Immunization Programme, a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases has raised concerns about vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Several contributing factors have been identified, including a preference for alternative medicines, doubts about halal status, fear of vaccine injury, concerns about the vaccines' contents, conspiracy theories, as well as convenience and access barriers. While various initiatives have been implemented, Malaysia may consider using vaccine mandates, as several countries have recently done, as a potential policy intervention to address these challenges. This review benefits policymakers, epidemiologists, as well as researchers involved in regional or global policy planning and advocacy efforts. It also offers comprehensive insights into designing effective interventions and making informed policy decisions regarding childhood vaccination programmes.

{"title":"A comprehensive review of the childhood vaccination landscape in Malaysia.","authors":"Nor Kamila Kamaruzaman, Marco Rizzi, Katie Attwell","doi":"10.1017/S095026882500024X","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S095026882500024X","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Vaccination is one of the most cost-effective and successful public health interventions to prevent infectious diseases. Governments worldwide have tried to optimize vaccination coverage, including using vaccine mandates. This review of recent literature and policy aims to provide a comprehensive overview of Malaysia's childhood vaccination landscape. The document analysis was used to identify and examine information from government policy documents, official government media statements, mainstream news content, and research papers. Content analysis was then employed to analyze the gathered information. Despite the successes of Malaysia's National Immunization Programme, a resurgence of vaccine-preventable diseases has raised concerns about vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Several contributing factors have been identified, including a preference for alternative medicines, doubts about halal status, fear of vaccine injury, concerns about the vaccines' contents, conspiracy theories, as well as convenience and access barriers. While various initiatives have been implemented, Malaysia may consider using vaccine mandates, as several countries have recently done, as a potential policy intervention to address these challenges. This review benefits policymakers, epidemiologists, as well as researchers involved in regional or global policy planning and advocacy efforts. It also offers comprehensive insights into designing effective interventions and making informed policy decisions regarding childhood vaccination programmes.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e41"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11869064/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143457336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cost-effectiveness of excluding children with Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) from childcare settings until microbiological clearance compared to return to childcare settings before microbiological clearance.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000196
Dana Šumilo, Peter Auguste, Claire Jenkins, Jason Madan, Noel D McCarthy
{"title":"Cost-effectiveness of excluding children with Shiga toxin-producing <i>Escherichia coli</i> (STEC) from childcare settings until microbiological clearance compared to return to childcare settings before microbiological clearance.","authors":"Dana Šumilo, Peter Auguste, Claire Jenkins, Jason Madan, Noel D McCarthy","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825000196","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"1-25"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143440305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Large Shigella flexneri outbreak linked to a takeaway, South Wales: a case-control study.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268824000943
Amy Plimmer, Laia Fina, Oghogho Orife, Beverley Griggs, Maria Saavedra-Campos, Donall Forde, Cerys Edwards, Louise Driscoll, Ananda Giri Shankar, Daniel Thomas

In February 2023, 52 cases of gastrointestinal illness were reported in customers of Takeaway A, South Wales. Shigella flexneri serotype 2a was the causative organism. An outbreak investigation was conducted to determine the extent and vehicle of the outbreak.Following descriptive summary and environmental investigations, a case-control study was completed. Participants completed a telephone questionnaire on food, travel, and environmental exposures. A multivariable logistic regression model was built, including exposures with p-values < 0.2 and interactions identified on stratified analysis. Staff faecal samples were screened for Shigella sp.Thirty-one cases and 29 controls were included in the study. Eighty-seven per cent of cases and 76% of controls ate from Takeaway A on 10 February 2023. Coleslaw was the main factor associated with illness (aOR: 200, 95% CI: 12-3220) and an interaction with cabbage was identified (aOR: 886, 95% CI: 26-30034). Shigella sp. were not detected in any staff samples.Coleslaw was the most likely vehicle. Though the contamination route is unknown, a food handler is the most likely source. This large outbreak differs from recent European outbreaks, which primarily have been associated with sexual transmission. Although uncommon in the UK, S. flexneri should be considered as a cause of foodborne outbreaks.

{"title":"Large <i>Shigella flexneri</i> outbreak linked to a takeaway, South Wales: a case-control study.","authors":"Amy Plimmer, Laia Fina, Oghogho Orife, Beverley Griggs, Maria Saavedra-Campos, Donall Forde, Cerys Edwards, Louise Driscoll, Ananda Giri Shankar, Daniel Thomas","doi":"10.1017/S0950268824000943","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268824000943","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In February 2023, 52 cases of gastrointestinal illness were reported in customers of Takeaway A, South Wales. <i>Shigella flexneri</i> serotype 2a was the causative organism. An outbreak investigation was conducted to determine the extent and vehicle of the outbreak.Following descriptive summary and environmental investigations, a case-control study was completed. Participants completed a telephone questionnaire on food, travel, and environmental exposures. A multivariable logistic regression model was built, including exposures with <i>p</i>-values < 0.2 and interactions identified on stratified analysis. Staff faecal samples were screened for <i>Shigella</i> sp.Thirty-one cases and 29 controls were included in the study. Eighty-seven per cent of cases and 76% of controls ate from Takeaway A on 10 February 2023. Coleslaw was the main factor associated with illness (aOR: 200, 95% CI: 12-3220) and an interaction with cabbage was identified (aOR: 886, 95% CI: 26-30034). <i>Shigella</i> sp. were not detected in any staff samples.Coleslaw was the most likely vehicle. Though the contamination route is unknown, a food handler is the most likely source. This large outbreak differs from recent European outbreaks, which primarily have been associated with sexual transmission. Although uncommon in the UK, <i>S. flexneri</i> should be considered as a cause of foodborne outbreaks.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":"153 ","pages":"e25"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11869068/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143413783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of tuberculosis in Vietnam: Insights from a local-area analysis. 越南结核病的贝叶斯时空模型:地方区域分析的启示。
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000214
Long Viet Bui, Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, Hoa Binh Nguyen, Nam Hoang Do, Emma S McBryde, Justin Sexton, Thuy Phuong Nguyen, David S Shipman, Greg J Fox, James M Trauer

Spatial analysis and disease mapping have the potential to enhance understanding of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics, whose spatial dynamics may be complicated by the mix of short and long-range transmission and long latency periods. TB notifications in Nam Dinh Province for individuals aged 15 and older from 2013 to 2022 were analyzed with a variety of spatio-temporal methods. The study commenced with an analysis of spatial autocorrelation to identify clustering patterns, followed by the evaluation of several candidate Bayesian spatio-temporal models. These models varied from simple assessments of spatial heterogeneity to more complex configurations incorporating covariates and interactions. The findings highlighted a peak in the TB notification rate in 2017, with 98 cases per 100,000 population, followed by a sharp decline in 2021. Significant spatial autocorrelation at the commune level was detected over most of the 10-year period. The Bayesian model that best balanced goodness-of-fit and complexity indicated that TB trends were associated with poverty: each percentage point increase in the proportion of poor households was associated with a 1.3% increase in TB notifications, emphasizing a significant socioeconomic factor in TB transmission dynamics. The integration of local socioeconomic data with spatio-temporal analysis could further enhance our understanding of TB epidemiology.

{"title":"Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of tuberculosis in Vietnam: Insights from a local-area analysis.","authors":"Long Viet Bui, Romain Ragonnet, Angus E Hughes, Hoa Binh Nguyen, Nam Hoang Do, Emma S McBryde, Justin Sexton, Thuy Phuong Nguyen, David S Shipman, Greg J Fox, James M Trauer","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825000214","DOIUrl":"10.1017/S0950268825000214","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Spatial analysis and disease mapping have the potential to enhance understanding of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics, whose spatial dynamics may be complicated by the mix of short and long-range transmission and long latency periods. TB notifications in Nam Dinh Province for individuals aged 15 and older from 2013 to 2022 were analyzed with a variety of spatio-temporal methods. The study commenced with an analysis of spatial autocorrelation to identify clustering patterns, followed by the evaluation of several candidate Bayesian spatio-temporal models. These models varied from simple assessments of spatial heterogeneity to more complex configurations incorporating covariates and interactions. The findings highlighted a peak in the TB notification rate in 2017, with 98 cases per 100,000 population, followed by a sharp decline in 2021. Significant spatial autocorrelation at the commune level was detected over most of the 10-year period. The Bayesian model that best balanced goodness-of-fit and complexity indicated that TB trends were associated with poverty: each percentage point increase in the proportion of poor households was associated with a 1.3% increase in TB notifications, emphasizing a significant socioeconomic factor in TB transmission dynamics. The integration of local socioeconomic data with spatio-temporal analysis could further enhance our understanding of TB epidemiology.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e34"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11869078/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143398697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Towards more transparent risk assessment of communicable diseases - Redefining probability and impact.
IF 2.5 4区 医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268825000147
Maarten Nauta, Lasse Engbo Christiansen, Stine Kjær Lefèvre, Charlotte Louise Munkstrup, Johanna Young, Hanne Rosenquist

Epidemic preparedness requires clear procedures and guidelines when a rapid risk assessment of a communicable disease threat is requested. In an evaluation of past risk assessments, we found that modifications to existing guidelines, such as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control's (ECDC) rapid risk assessment operational tool, can strengthen this process. Therefore, we present alternative guidelines, in which we propose a unifying risk assessment terminology, describe how the risk question should be phrased by the risk manager, and redefine the probability and impact dimension of risk, including a methodology to express uncertainty. In our approach, probability refers to the probability of the introduction of a disease into a specified population in a specified time period, and impact combines the magnitude of spread and the severity of the health outcomes. Based on the collected evidence, both the probability of introduction and the magnitude of spread are quantitatively expressed by expert judgements, providing unambiguous risk assessment. We advise not to summarize the risk by a single qualification as 'low' or 'high'. These alternative guidelines, which are illustrated by a hypothetical example on mpox, have been implemented at Statens Serum Institut in Denmark and can benefit other public health institutes.

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Epidemiology and Infection
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