Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The Yellow River Basin (YRB) has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history. Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk. However, owing to insufficient evidence, the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains ill-defined. We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements. Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods: a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950, and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021, with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods. A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods: an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000, and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021. We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an ∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.