Geography and Sustainability最新文献

Emerging lessons on how participatory scenario planning can support sustainable land management and climate resilience 关于参与式情景规划如何支持可持续土地管理和气候适应能力的新经验

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100405

Pattrawut Pusingha , Robert A. Marchant , Richard M. Friend , Rui Han

Land degradation, coupled with climate change impacts, poses serious threats to global land health and human well-being. Participatory scenario planning (PSP) has become a key tool for exploring these interconnected challenges; however, its progress and effectiveness remain underexplored. This study reviews 46 papers, using PRISMA guidelines, to investigate how PSP supports sustainable land management and climate resilience. We document how PSP applications have evolved from a biophysical focus to one addressing broader environmental, societal, and economic challenges. Disparities in how participants engage across PSP phases document the need for more equitable and meaningful participation. Clustering future scenarios reveals the complex interconnections among ecological, social, and economic factors underpinning land management and climate resilience, underscoring the need for inclusive and integrated strategies. From the emerging trends, we identify opportunities to advance PSP implementation, including early engagement of decision-makers, balanced representation and equitable power dynamics, meaningful participation, cross-disciplinary collaboration, integration of human–nature relationships, and regular revision of future pathways. Overall, our review highlights PSP’s potential to co-create inclusive, equitable scenarios and actionable pathways towards sustainable and resilient land use futures.

土地退化，加上气候变化的影响，对全球土地健康和人类福祉构成严重威胁。参与式情景规划（PSP）已成为探索这些相互关联的挑战的关键工具；然而，其进展和有效性仍未得到充分探讨。本研究回顾了46篇论文，使用PRISMA指南来研究PSP如何支持可持续土地管理和气候适应能力。我们记录了PSP应用如何从生物物理的焦点发展到解决更广泛的环境、社会和经济挑战。参与者在PSP各个阶段的参与方式存在差异，这表明需要更公平、更有意义的参与。聚类未来情景揭示了支撑土地管理和气候适应能力的生态、社会和经济因素之间复杂的相互联系，强调了制定包容性和综合战略的必要性。从新兴趋势中，我们发现了推进PSP实施的机会，包括决策者的早期参与、平衡的代表性和公平的权力动态、有意义的参与、跨学科合作、人与自然关系的整合以及对未来路径的定期修订。总体而言，我们的评估强调了PSP在共同创造包容、公平的情景和可操作的途径，以实现可持续和有弹性的土地利用未来方面的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Hotspots of disagreement across global urban land projections until 2100 2100年前全球城市土地预测的分歧热点

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100403

Jasper van Vliet , Hang Yang , Nathalie Benz , Changxiu Cheng , Jonathan Doelman , Jing Gao , Qingxu Huang , Eric Koomen , Xuecao Li , Lu Niu , Elizabeth A. Schrammeijer , Yuyu Zhou

Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments, including those related to biodiversity loss, carbon emissions, and agricultural land conversion. However, to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown. Here, we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112% between 2020 and 2100 (averaged across all projections), with a coefficient of variation of 0.81. This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models. Regionally, the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa (+679% to +730%), while this region also has the highest variation across projections (coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18). When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land, rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North, but not for regions in the Global South. The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts, which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning, policymaking, and resource management decisions.

对未来城市土地变化的预测对于一系列可持续性评估至关重要，包括与生物多样性丧失、碳排放和农业用地转换有关的评估。然而，目前的预测在多大程度上是一致的，在什么地方是不一致的，仍然不得而知。在这里，我们系统地比较了与共享社会经济路径一致的现有全球预测。我们发现，在2020年至2100年期间，全球城市土地总面积预计将增加112%（所有预测的平均值），变异系数为0.81。这种差异主要是由不同模型中包含的潜在驱动因素的选择引起的。从区域来看，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的平均增长率最高（+679%至+730%），而该地区的预测差异也最大（变异系数为2.02至2.18）。在一项研究中将城市土地预计增长从最高到最低的情景排序时，全球北方地区的排名相对相似，但全球南方地区则不同。预测之间的巨大分歧可能导致未来城市土地变化影响评估的高度不确定性，这可能破坏长期规划、政策制定和资源管理决策的有效性。

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引用次数: 0

International food trade increased the food security gap between high and low economic development groups 国际粮食贸易扩大了高、低经济发展群体之间的粮食安全差距

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100402

Zihan Xu , Tianyi Wu , Tao Hu , Yanxu Liu , Jian Peng

International trade serves as a crucial pathway for enhancing global food security and equality amid severe food crises worldwide. Under globalization, economic development has profoundly influenced food trade, while disparities in food purchasing power among different economic development groups have led to uneven food security outcomes. However, the varying contributions of international trade to food security across these groups remain to be quantitatively elucidated. This study categorized countries into four economic development groups—high, high-medium, medium-low, and low—and examined changes in their food security scores from 2010 to 2019. The cross-group contributions of international trade to food security across these groups were compared. The results revealed that the food security score of the high economic development group was 9.22 times higher than that of the low economic development group. From 2010 to 2019, the high economic development group exhibited a significant upward trend in food security scores, whereas the low economic development group showed a significant decline. Moreover, international trade contributed significantly to both cross-group and within-group food security in the high economic development group, while its contribution to the low economic development group remained negligible. These findings demonstrated that international trade has further widened the food security gap between the high and low economic development groups, and its limited contribution to the low economic development group has failed to reverse the declining trend in their food security scores. This study quantified the divergent impacts of international trade on food security across economic development groups, providing valuable insights for optimizing global food trade policies—particularly in addressing the food security challenges faced by low econominc development group.

在全球严重的粮食危机中，国际贸易是加强全球粮食安全和平等的重要途径。在全球化背景下，经济发展对粮食贸易产生了深刻影响，而不同经济发展群体之间粮食购买力的差异导致了粮食安全结果的不平衡。然而，国际贸易对这些群体粮食安全的不同贡献仍有待定量阐明。本研究将各国分为高、中高、中低和低四个经济发展组，并研究了2010年至2019年各国粮食安全得分的变化。比较了国际贸易对这些群体粮食安全的跨群体贡献。结果表明：高经济发展群体的粮食安全得分是低经济发展群体的9.22倍；2010 - 2019年，经济发展程度高的国家粮食安全得分呈显著上升趋势，经济发展程度低的国家粮食安全得分呈显著下降趋势。此外，国际贸易对高经济发展群体的跨群体和群体内粮食安全的贡献显著，而对低经济发展群体的贡献几乎可以忽略不计。这些结果表明，国际贸易进一步拉大了高、低经济发展群体之间的粮食安全差距，其对低经济发展群体的有限贡献未能扭转其粮食安全得分下降的趋势。本研究量化了国际贸易对各经济发展群体粮食安全的不同影响，为优化全球粮食贸易政策提供了有价值的见解，特别是在应对低经济发展群体面临的粮食安全挑战方面。

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引用次数: 0

Dynamic patterns and driving factors of productive cropland in Ukraine before and after Russia-Ukraine conflict 俄乌冲突前后乌克兰生产性耕地动态格局及驱动因素

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100401

Yiliang Li , Kaixuan Yao , Qingxiang Meng , Yujie Wang , Rui Xiao , Yuhang Liu , Sensen Wu , Yansheng Li

Ukraine, as one of the world’s largest agricultural producers and exporters, plays a critical role in global food security. It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of productive cropland in Ukraine, particularly in the context of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of both conflict- and non-conflict-related factors that influenced the distribution and productivity of Ukraine’s cropland from 2013 to 2023. In addition, we propose a novel method using machine learning models to isolate the impact of conflict on cropland. Our findings reveal that, prior to the conflict, the spatial pattern of Ukraine’s mean cultivation rate was primarily shaped by natural factors—such as climate, soil properties, and elevation—whereas socio-economic factors (e.g., GDP and population size) exerted a weaker influence. Interannual dynamics in productive cropland area were largely driven by climate variability. The onset of conflict in 2022 dramatically altered this landscape, with nearly half of the cropland grid cells experiencing a conflict-induced reduction. Notably, almost half of the interannual reduction in productive cropland in 2022 was attributed to climate change. Remarkably, in 2023, the return of displaced populations and favorable climatic conditions in many oblasts contributed to a positive trend in cropland reclamation. Despite this, the total area of productive cropland in 2023 remained below expected levels, due to ongoing conflict and localized droughts. Finally, we highlight the urgent need to adopt a two-pronged approach that addresses both the immediate impacts of conflict and the ongoing threats posed by climate change to ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems in post-conflict areas.

乌克兰是世界上最大的农业生产国和出口国之一，在全球粮食安全方面发挥着关键作用。了解乌克兰生产性耕地的时空动态和驱动因素至关重要，特别是在2022年俄乌冲突的背景下。我们首次对2013年至2023年影响乌克兰农田分布和生产力的冲突和非冲突相关因素进行了全面评估。此外，我们提出了一种使用机器学习模型的新方法来分离冲突对农田的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在冲突之前，乌克兰平均耕种率的空间格局主要受自然因素（如气候、土壤性质和海拔）的影响，而社会经济因素（如GDP和人口规模）的影响较弱。生产耕地面积的年际动态主要受气候变率驱动。2022年冲突的爆发极大地改变了这一格局，近一半的农田网格单元因冲突而减少。值得注意的是，2022年几乎一半的生产性耕地年际减少归因于气候变化。值得注意的是，在2023年，流离失所人口的返回和许多州有利的气候条件促成了耕地复垦的积极趋势。尽管如此，由于持续的冲突和局部干旱，2023年的耕地总面积仍低于预期水平。最后，我们强调迫切需要采取双管齐下的办法，既应对冲突的直接影响，又应对气候变化带来的持续威胁，以确保冲突后地区农业系统的复原力和可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

A basin-scale water budget calibration method for sustainable water management: A case study in the Loess Plateau, China 可持续水资源管理的流域尺度水收支定标方法——以黄土高原为例

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100400

Zonghan Ma , Bingfang Wu , Nana Yan , Weiwei Zhu , Mengxiao Li , Hongwei Zeng , Yixuan Wang , Peilin Song , Qiquan Yang , Qingcheng Pan

Accurate water budget closure is critical for sustainable water resource management facing increased pressures from climate change and human activities. Although error reduction methods for individual water balance components have advanced, persistent biases remain due to the independent development of datasets, impacting basin scale water budget balance. In this research, we analyzed the mathematical origin of the bias between water budget components and developed a new basin-scale water balance calibration method that redistributes errors across components while enforcing water balance constraints. Validation confirms systematic improvements, with reduced RMSE (Precipitation: -2.29 mm/month; ET: -1.34 mm/month) and increased R² against in situ observations. Applied to the Jinghe River Basin (2000−2019), the calibrated data reveal declining precipitation (-1.70 mm/year) and evapotranspiration (-1.84 mm/year) alongside slightly increasing runoff (0.20 mm/year in basin depth), signaling a drying trend. Land cover changes—marked by cropland loss (-3,497 km²) and forest (+720 km²) and grassland (+2,776 km²) expansion—reflect improved water consumption requirements by ecosystem, raising concerns for water retention and ecosystem stability. The method is particularly effective for ungauged basins with sparse ground data and underscores the need for integrated land-water management to enhance long-term resilience.

面对气候变化和人类活动日益增加的压力，准确的水预算关闭对于可持续水资源管理至关重要。尽管单个水平衡分量的误差减少方法已经取得了进步，但由于数据集的独立开发，持续存在的偏差仍然存在，影响了流域尺度的水收支平衡。在这项研究中，我们分析了水收支分量之间偏差的数学根源，并开发了一种新的流域尺度水平衡校准方法，该方法在强制水平衡约束的同时，在各分量之间重新分配误差。验证证实了系统的改进，与原位观测相比，RMSE降低（降水：-2.29 mm/月；ET: -1.34 mm/月），R²增加。应用于泾河流域（2000 ~ 2019年），校正后的数据显示，流域降水（-1.70 mm/年）和蒸散量（-1.84 mm/年）减少，径流（流域深度0.20 mm/年）略有增加，呈现干旱趋势。土地覆盖变化——以耕地减少（- 3497平方公里）、森林（+720平方公里）和草地（+ 2776平方公里）扩张为标志——反映了生态系统对水消耗需求的改善，引起了对保水和生态系统稳定性的关注。该方法对地面数据稀少的未测量盆地特别有效，并强调需要进行综合水土管理以增强长期恢复力。

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引用次数: 0

Revealing the potential geographic convergence of global water scarcity risk and virtual water trade inequality: A three-module integrated analytical approach 揭示全球水资源短缺风险和虚拟水贸易不平等的潜在地理趋同：一个三模块集成分析方法

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100399

Qiting Zuo , Zhizhuo Zhang , Junxia Ma , Qingsong Wu , Yihu Ji

Unequal virtual water transfer may aggravate local water scarcity risk. However, the quantitative confirmation of a clear geographic convergence between virtual water transfer and water scarcity risk remains undetermined. We present an analytical framework that reveals the spatial matching between global water scarcity risk and virtual water trade inequality. This framework integrates a three-dimensional water scarcity risk assessment, hybrid input-output analysis, pollution trade term construction, and geographic convergence identification. The framework is applied to 123 countries for long-term validation from 1991 to 2021. We show that despite global improvements in water efficiency and security, countries exceeding the maximum water vulnerability threshold have increased by 50 %. South Asia is the largest net exporter of virtual water. Central Asia exhibits the most pronounced virtual water trade inequality. To achieve the same economic growth, Central Asia needs to pay several times the local water consumption costs of developed regions (15.9 − 83.6 times, 2021). In the past 30 years, the average geographic convergence index exceeded 0.8. Countries facing severe water scarcity also exhibit pronounced inequalities in virtual water trade, indicating that a significant geographic convergence relationship exists. Effectively responding to this unsustainable relationship necessitates balancing both domestic resource risk management and global virtual water trade regulation.

虚拟调水不均衡可能加剧局部缺水风险。然而，对虚拟水转移和缺水风险之间明显的地理趋同的定量确认仍未确定。我们提出了一个分析框架，揭示了全球水资源短缺风险与虚拟水贸易不平等之间的空间匹配关系。该框架集成了三维水资源短缺风险评估、混合投入产出分析、污染贸易条款构建和地理趋同识别。该框架适用于123个国家，从1991年到2021年长期有效。我们发现，尽管全球水资源效率和安全性有所提高，但超过水资源脆弱性最大阈值的国家增加了50%。南亚是虚拟水的最大净出口国。中亚表现出最明显的虚拟水贸易不平等。为了实现同样的经济增长，中亚需要支付数倍于发达地区的当地用水成本（15.9 - 83.6倍，2021年）。近30年平均地理收敛指数超过0.8。面临严重缺水的国家在虚拟水贸易中也表现出明显的不平等，表明存在显著的地理趋同关系。有效应对这种不可持续的关系需要平衡国内资源风险管理和全球虚拟水贸易监管。

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引用次数: 0

The second phase of Global Dryland Ecosystem Program—Focusing on dryland social-ecological system and sustainability 全球旱地生态系统规划第二阶段——关注旱地社会生态系统及其可持续性

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100379

Bojie Fu , David J. Eldridge , Jingyi Ding

引用次数: 0

Integrating geography for sustainable development: Insights from the 2025 International Workshop on Geography and Sustainability 整合地理学促进可持续发展：来自2025年地理学与可持续性国际研讨会的见解

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100380

Wenwu Zhao , Zhengyang Wang , Yanxu Liu , Michael E. Meadows

The 2025 International Workshop on Geography and Sustainability, held in Xi’an, China, from 17 to 20 October, convened at a time of intensifying global challenges and renewed efforts to advance sustainable development. Under the theme “Geography for Sustainable Development: Interdisciplinary Perspectives”, the event explored innovative approaches to strengthening geography’s role in global and regional sustainability. Five key research priorities were identified, viz. integration of geographical methods; integration of geographical processes; integration of geographical regions; Coupled Human and Natural Systems; and regional and global sustainability. The conference featured several important international initiatives: the establishment of the African Chapter of the International Geographical Union Commission on Geography and Sustainability, the launch of Phase II of the Global Dryland Ecosystem Programme, and the signing of a cooperative agreement between the Geographical Society of China and the Egyptian Geographical Society. The wider discussions reflected a growing need to further develop integrated geography as a coherent discipline to better understand and respond to complex human natural interactions. It also called for aligning future research priorities with the proposed United Nations Centennial Goals for 2045, and for strengthening South-South collaboration and dryland research networks. These collective efforts aim to expand geography’s role in both knowledge and action for sustainability.

2025年国际地理与可持续发展研讨会于10月17日至20日在中国西安召开，正值全球挑战日益加剧、各方再次努力推动可持续发展之际。会议以“地理学促进可持续发展：跨学科视角”为主题，探讨了加强地理学在全球和区域可持续发展中的作用的创新方法。确定了五个重点研究重点，即综合地理方法；整合地理过程；地理区域一体化；人与自然耦合系统；以及区域和全球的可持续性。会议提出了几项重要的国际倡议：成立了国际地理联盟地理与可持续发展委员会非洲分会，启动了全球旱地生态系统计划二期，签署了中国地理学会与埃及地理学会的合作协议。更广泛的讨论反映出越来越需要进一步发展综合地理学，使其成为一门连贯的学科，以便更好地理解和应对复杂的人类与自然的相互作用。它还呼吁将未来的研究重点与拟议的2045年联合国百年目标保持一致，并加强南南合作和旱地研究网络。这些集体努力旨在扩大地理在可持续发展知识和行动方面的作用。

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引用次数: 0

A data- and expert-driven framework for establishing land cover–related essential variables for SDG monitoring and assessment 一个数据和专家驱动的框架，用于为可持续发展目标监测和评估建立与土地覆盖相关的基本变量

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100397

Hao Wu , Ping Zhang , Jun Chen , Songnian Li , Jing Li , Shu Peng , Dongyang Hou , Jun Zhang , Hao Chen

Sustained and spatially explicit monitoring of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is critical for effectively tracking progress toward the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although land cover information has long been recognized as an essential component for monitoring SDGs, a standardized scientific framework for identifying and prioritizing land cover related essential variables does not exist. Therefore, we propose a novel expert- and data-driven framework for identifying, refining, and selecting a priority list of Essential Land cover-related Variables for SDGs (ELcV4SDGs). This framework integrates methods including expert knowledge-based analysis, clustering of variables with similar attributes, and quantified index calculation to establish the priority list. Applying the framework to 15 specific SDG indicators, we found that the ELcV4SDGs priority list comprises three main categories, type and structure, pattern and intensity, and process and evolution of land cover, which are further divided into 19 subcategories and ultimately encompass 50 general variables. The ELcV4SDGs will support detailed spatial monitoring and enhance their scientific applications for SDG monitoring and assessment, thereby guiding future SDG priority actions and informing decision-making to advance the 2030 SDGs agenda at local, national, and global levels.

对联合国2030年可持续发展议程进行持续和明确的空间监测，对于有效跟踪实现全球可持续发展目标的进展至关重要。虽然土地覆盖信息长期以来一直被认为是监测可持续发展目标的重要组成部分，但目前还没有一个标准化的科学框架来确定与土地覆盖相关的基本变量并对其进行优先排序。因此，我们提出了一个新的专家和数据驱动的框架，用于识别、提炼和选择可持续发展目标的基本土地覆盖相关变量优先列表（ELcV4SDGs）。该框架集成了基于专家知识的分析、相似属性变量聚类和量化指标计算等方法来建立优先级列表。将该框架应用于15个具体的可持续发展目标指标，我们发现elcv4sdg优先级列表包括土地覆盖的类型和结构、格局和强度、过程和演变三个主要类别，并进一步划分为19个子类别，最终包含50个一般变量。ELcV4SDGs将支持详细的空间监测，并加强其在可持续发展目标监测和评估中的科学应用，从而指导未来的可持续发展目标优先行动，并为决策提供信息，从而在地方、国家和全球层面推进2030年可持续发展目标议程。

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引用次数: 0

Life cycle environmental impacts and emission reduction pathways of wind power in western China: A scenario-based assessment 中国西部风电全生命周期环境影响与减排路径：基于场景的评估

IF 8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geography and Sustainability

Pub Date : 2025-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2025.100394

Ning Su , Xiaobing Li , Xin Lyu , Dongliang Dang , Siyu Liu , Chenhao Zhang

Compared with traditional energy sources, wind power has a lower environmental impact. However, emissions are still generated across the life cycle of wind turbines, from production to recycling. As wind power rapidly develops and deployment increases, these impacts are becoming increasingly evident. A comprehensive understanding of these impacts is crucial for sustainable development. Based on the harmonization of previous detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) studies, this study develops a simplified LCA model that estimates the life cycle environmental impacts of wind turbines based on their nominal power. Using this simplified LCA model, we assess the global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), and cumulative energy demand (CED) of wind power at the regional scale for 2022 and under three future scenarios (high-power wind turbine promotion, reduced wind curtailment, and a comprehensive development scenario). The results indicate that in 2022, the life cycle GWP, AP, and CED of wind power in western China were 10.76 g CO₂ eq/kWh, 0.177 g SO₂ eq/kWh, and 17.6 kJ/kWh, respectively. Scenario simulations suggest that reducing wind curtailment is the most effective approach for reducing emissions in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang, producing average decreases of 8.64 % in GWP, 8.39 % in AP, and 9.26 % in CED. In contrast, for Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Xizang, and Shaanxi, the promotion of high-power wind turbines provides greater environmental benefits than reducing curtailment, producing average decreases of 3.45 %, 3.09 %, and 4.29 % in GWP, AP, and CED, respectively. These findings help clarify the environmental impact of wind power across its life cycle at the regional scale and provide theoretical references for the direction of future wind power development and the formulation of related policies.

与传统能源相比，风力发电对环境的影响较小。然而，在风力涡轮机的整个生命周期中，从生产到回收，仍然会产生排放。随着风电的快速发展和部署的增加，这些影响变得越来越明显。全面了解这些影响对可持续发展至关重要。基于先前详细的生命周期评估（LCA）研究的统一，本研究开发了一个简化的LCA模型，该模型基于其标称功率估计风力涡轮机的生命周期环境影响。利用该简化的LCA模型，我们评估了2022年区域尺度上风电的全球变暖潜势（GWP）、酸化潜势（AP）和累积能源需求（CED），以及未来三种情景（大功率风力发电推广、减少弃风和综合开发情景）。结果表明，2022年中国西部风电全生命周期GWP、AP和CED分别为10.76 g CO2 eq/kWh、0.177 g SO2 eq/kWh和17.6 kJ/kWh。情景模拟结果表明，减少弃风是内蒙古、甘肃、青海、宁夏和新疆地区最有效的减排方法，平均减少了8.64%的GWP，减少了8.39%的AP和9.26%的CED。相比之下，在广西、重庆、四川、贵州、云南、西藏和陕西，推广大功率风力发电机组的环境效益大于减少弃风，GWP、AP和CED的平均降幅分别为3.45%、3.09%和4.29%。这些发现有助于在区域尺度上理清风电全生命周期的环境影响，为未来风电发展方向和相关政策的制定提供理论参考。

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引用次数: 0