The northern wheatear is reducing its distribution in its southernmost European range and moving to higher altitudes

Abstract

Under the current pattern of climate change, mountain bird populations are generally shifting their ranges to higher elevations, tracking their climatic optima. Nevertheless, space limitations at high altitudes constrain mountain species' resilience to climatic change, making them particularly vulnerable. In extreme cases, the climatic niche of some species can move beyond mountaintops, ultimately driving such species to extinction. This study presents the case of the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe in mainland Spain and compares its breeding distribution from 2003 to 2022. Spain, where the species mostly occupies mountain areas, represents its southernmost distribution limit in Europe. We built environmental favourability models using information from the two most recent Spanish bird atlases and a set of climatic, topographic, human activity and lithological variables to determine the factors affecting the occurrence of the species. The influence of climate compared to all other factors was obtained using variation partitioning analysis. The northern wheatear has suffered a strong reduction (67%) in occupied areas and also in favourability throughout mainland Spain (especially in the south) where climate change may have far-reaching consequences, including local extinctions. Climate explained more than 90% of the variation in the model obtained for 2022. Interestingly, the occupied areas were, on average, 100 m higher in 2022 than in 2003. If the effects of climate warming persist, the northern wheatear will likely disappear in its southernmost distribution limit, being the Sierra de las Nieves National Park population the most vulnerable in mainland Spain. For this reason, it is necessary to implement monitoring programmes for northern wheatear populations, with priority for mountain systems wherein they already occupy higher elevations, as well as further studies on other mountain species.