A longitudinal study of societal resilience and its predictors during the Israel-Gaza war

Abstract

This study assesses the resilience of Israeli society during the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict and pinpoints factors that influence this resilience in prolonged national crises. A longitudinal study was carried out with two surveys, both using the same questionnaire to gage societal, community, and individual resilience levels, along with hope, morale, distress, perceived threats, and government support. The initial survey was administered 5 days after the war escalated and the second 1 month later. The study's results reveal a decline in societal resilience over time. The regression analysis identified four major associations at both resilience measurement points. The key variables are community resilience and hope, both contributing positively. Attitudes towards government support (specifically being a government supporter vs. an opponent) also played a role. Additionally, there was a negative association with levels of religiosity, particularly distinguishing between ultra-orthodox and secular individuals. In the temporal analysis predicting future resilience (from data at the first time point to predict resilience at the second time point), societal resilience at the first measurement was the strongest forecaster of its resilience at the second measurement. Additionally, the main continuous variable from the previous analysis, community resilience, continued to be an influential and positive forecaster in the time-based analysis. The research suggests that the initial unifying effect of the conflict, similar to a “Rally around the flag” phenomenon, may be short-lived. The study underlines the importance of community strength, hope, government support, and religious considerations in shaping societal resilience in the face of conflict.