Time-varying reaction of U.S. meat demand to animal disease outbreaks

Abstract

This study examined the impact of the mad cow (BSE) and bird flu (HPAI) outbreaks on the demand for beef, pork, and broiler meat in the United States from 1997 to 2022. Using time-varying elasticities obtained from the Rotterdam model extended to include animal disease outbreaks, we found that the BSE outbreaks significantly reduced beef consumption. These reactions were indeed time-varying, ranging from 1.312% in 2003 to 1.212% in 2005. HPAI outbreaks had a delayed reaction, with a rebound in broiler meat consumption in the quarter following the start of the outbreak. In general, the magnitude of these reactions was proportional to the severity of an outbreak.