Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy最新文献

Using partially identified Bayesian structural vector autoregressions, we examine how food price shocks have influenced core inflation and inflation expectations in the United States since 1990. This is important, given the conspicuousness of food prices and the substantial share of food expenditure in households' budgets. Shocks raised one-year expectations immediately, with effects lasting nine quarters; they increased core inflation with a short delay. Long-term expectations were largely unaffected. Counterfactuals show that one-year expectations would have been lower in 2020 and 2022 without these shocks. The findings suggest food price shocks warrant a measured response, not an overreaction, from central banks.

This study evaluates the potential for subsidy capture within the USDA's Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance program. We show that contracts with expiration dates aligning with CME option expiration dates are purchased at elevated rates, particularly in feeder cattle and swine. The scale and timing of these purchases are consistent with subsidy capturing trading behavior. In contrast, we find no significant evidence of subsidy capture in fed cattle. Estimated maximum subsidy captures for 2024 reach $10 million in feeder cattle and $29.3 million in swine. Policy reforms targeting contract timing and pricing mechanisms are recommended to protect program integrity.

JEL Classification: Q18, Q10, Q19

Is there a trade-off between labor protections and environmental stewardship for organic foods? We investigate this question in the context of the U.S. apple industry. U.S. organic apple producers are heavily reliant on access to temporary foreign labor under the H-2A visa program. Using monthly U.S. retail price data from 2010 to 2023, we estimate the extent to which increased labor protections under H-2A have increased retail prices for organic apples relative to conventional apples. We find that changes in the H-2A Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEVR) affect retail organic price premiums. Our results suggest that a 1% increase in the AEVR corresponds to a 0.1% increase in the retail price premium for organic apples. Wage increases enhance security for foreign workers and support domestic production, but they may also make sustainable organic products more costly for consumers.

Since 2019, negotiated and formula hog values have increasingly diverged. Using rolling regression models, we demonstrate that the divergence is likely due to a switch from using negotiated hog values to using pork prices for valuing formula hogs, limiting the previously theorized impacts of thin negotiated hog markets on producer welfare. The change in the formulas raises timely questions about the thinness of wholesale pork markets, risk sharing through public information, and transparency in formula pricing.

A shift towards plant-based diets has appeared as a sustainable solution to the increasing carbon footprint. Despite a significant surge in popularity, the efficacy of plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) in achieving the stated goals of enhancing public health, environmental sustainability, and animal welfare through the displacement of animal-based meats (ABMs) remains inconclusive. Leveraging detailed, representative household scanner data from 2019 to 2021 for 136,553 households, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of consumer demand for PBMAs relative to ABMs. Unlike prior research that primarily relied on experimental methods or highly aggregated market-level data, this study investigates the extent to which consumers have shifted their protein choices from traditional ABM options to PBMAs based on 26 detailed product categories, thereby offering new insights into the full spectrum of consumer preferences for PBMAs et ABMs. We find that consumers allocate a marginal proportion of their meat budget to PBMAs and are more responsive to the price of PBMAs compared to ABMs, suggesting that price is still one of the major barriers impeding the protein transition. In addition, our analysis of substitution patterns indicates that, depending on the product category, PBMAs serve as both substitutes (e.g., plan-based beef patty) and complements (e.g., plant-based bacon) to their ABM counterparts. Combining results from market trends and demand relationships, the PBMAs have not yet looked promising in displacing ABMs in the short-term future.

This paper examines potential effects of reversing North American integration, focusing on recent USMCA trade disputes over Mexico's GE corn import ban. Using a CGE model, we simulate Mexico's reduction in GE grain imports and U.S. tariff escalation with partner retaliation. Results show significant disruptions: U.S. grain exports fall by 9.3%, and Mexican grain output rises 16% amid sectoral inefficiencies. Broad-based tariffs distort production, reduce GDP in Mexico and Canada, and shift global trade patterns. U.S. subsidies partially offset domestic losses but increase fiscal burdens. Our findings highlight the high economic costs and global spillovers from reversing regional agricultural integration.