Radar Outage Costs and the Value of Alternate Datasets

Abstract

Quantifying the costs of radar outages allows value to be attributed to the alternate datasets that help mitigate outages. When radars are offline, forecasters rely more heavily on nearby radars, surface reports, numerical weather prediction models, and satellite observations. Monetized radar benefit models allow value to be attributed to individual radars for mitigating the threat to life from tornadoes, flash floods, and severe winds. Eighteen radars exceed $20 million in annual benefits for mitigating the threat to life from these convective hazards. The Jackson, MS radar (KJAN) provides the most value ($41.4 million), with the vast majority related to tornado risk mitigation ($29.4 million). During 2020-2023, the average radar is offline for 2.57% of minutes or 9.27 days per year, and experiences an average of 58.9 outages per year lasting 4.32 hours on average. Radar outage cost estimates vary by location and convective hazard. Outage cost estimates concentrate at the top, with 8, 2, 4, and 5 radars exceeding $1 million in outage costs during 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively. The KJAN radar experiences outage frequencies of 4.92% and 5.50% during 2020 and 2023, resulting in outage cost estimates > $2 million both years. Combining outage cost estimates for all radars suggests that approximately $29.1 million in annual radar outage costs may be attributable as value to alternative datasets for helping to mitigate radar outage impacts.