Impact of Crypto Assets as Risk Diversifiers: A VAR-based Analysis of Portfolio Risk Reduction

Muhammad Nadeem, Arfan Shahzad, Yasmin Anwar
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Abstract

This research aims to empirically investigate the portfolio risk associated with crypto assets. In other words, we want to investigate whether the inclusion of crypto assets in a portfolio can minimize the portfolio risk or not, because it is argued that there is a lower degree of correlation between crypto assets and traditional assets. In order to achieve our research objectives, we employ the Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) by using five different asset classes. The first two variables are taken from the crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and the remaining three variables for Gold, Crude Oil and VIX (Chicago Board Options Exchange's (CBOE) volatility index).  Our research strategy will be based on an analysis for unit root, optimal lag selection, coefficient matrix, checking VAR stability, the Granger causality test, and impulse response function (IRF). Our findings suggest that none of the indicators of traditional assets drive and explain Bitcoin. We also found that only Bitcoin is significantly related to Ethereum. while none of the other variables are statistically useful to explain the variation in the Ethereum. Based on these findings it can be recommended that the inclusion of crypto assets into a portfolio reduces risk because none of the indicators of crypto assets are significantly related to the indicators of traditional assets.
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加密资产作为风险分散工具的影响:基于 VAR 的投资组合风险降低分析
本研究旨在对与加密资产相关的投资组合风险进行实证调查。换句话说,我们想调查将加密资产纳入投资组合是否能最大限度地降低投资组合风险,因为有观点认为,加密资产与传统资产之间的相关性较低。为了实现研究目标,我们采用了向量自回归模型(VAR),使用了五种不同的资产类别。前两个变量来自加密资产--比特币和以太坊,其余三个变量来自黄金、原油和 VIX(芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)波动率指数)。 我们的研究策略将基于单位根分析、最佳滞后期选择、系数矩阵、VAR 稳定性检查、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应函数(IRF)。我们的研究结果表明,没有一个传统资产指标能驱动和解释比特币。我们还发现,只有比特币与以太坊显著相关,而其他变量在统计学上都不能解释以太坊的变化。基于这些发现,我们可以建议将加密资产纳入投资组合以降低风险,因为没有一个加密资产指标与传统资产指标显著相关。
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