{"title":"The effects of non-deliverable forward programs of emerging-market central banks: A synthetic control approach","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.bir.2024.03.009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, emerging market economies’ central banks have started to use foreign exchange derivative instruments frequently in exchange rate markets to provide a hedging instrument for currency risks and to support market liquidity. In this context, the central banks of three major emerging markets—the Central Bank of Brazil, Central Bank of Mexico, and Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye—have started to implement non-deliverable forward (NDF) auctions. In this study, the impact of the NDF programs on financial market indicators is examined using a synthetic control method, which controls for the endogeneity and causality problems commonly faced by studies on the effect of central bank exchange market interventions. The empirical findings indicate that the NDF programs of the Central Bank of Brazil and Central Bank of Mexico have a significant impact on the exchange rate level but limited impact on the volatility and no impact on risk reversals. Conversely, the NDF program of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has a significant downward impact on the implied volatility and risk reversal but no significant impact on the level of the exchange rate. The difference in the effectiveness of similar practices of these three central banks is considered to be related mostly to the size of the programs.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":46690,"journal":{"name":"Borsa Istanbul Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Borsa Istanbul Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214845024000504","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, emerging market economies’ central banks have started to use foreign exchange derivative instruments frequently in exchange rate markets to provide a hedging instrument for currency risks and to support market liquidity. In this context, the central banks of three major emerging markets—the Central Bank of Brazil, Central Bank of Mexico, and Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye—have started to implement non-deliverable forward (NDF) auctions. In this study, the impact of the NDF programs on financial market indicators is examined using a synthetic control method, which controls for the endogeneity and causality problems commonly faced by studies on the effect of central bank exchange market interventions. The empirical findings indicate that the NDF programs of the Central Bank of Brazil and Central Bank of Mexico have a significant impact on the exchange rate level but limited impact on the volatility and no impact on risk reversals. Conversely, the NDF program of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye has a significant downward impact on the implied volatility and risk reversal but no significant impact on the level of the exchange rate. The difference in the effectiveness of similar practices of these three central banks is considered to be related mostly to the size of the programs.
期刊介绍:
Peer Review under the responsibility of Borsa İstanbul Anonim Sirketi. Borsa İstanbul Review provides a scholarly platform for empirical financial studies including but not limited to financial markets and institutions, financial economics, investor behavior, financial centers and market structures, corporate finance, recent economic and financial trends. Micro and macro data applications and comparative studies are welcome. Country coverage includes advanced, emerging and developing economies. In particular, we would like to publish empirical papers with significant policy implications and encourage submissions in the following areas: Research Topics: • Investments and Portfolio Management • Behavioral Finance • Financial Markets and Institutions • Market Microstructure • Islamic Finance • Financial Risk Management • Valuation • Capital Markets Governance • Financial Regulations