Borsa Istanbul Review最新文献

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The impact of currency market shocks on global bond fund returns and volatility 外汇市场冲击对全球债券基金收益及波动率的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.025

Zheng Lü , Rim El Khoury , Zhuhua Jiang , Oguzhan Ozcelebi , Seong-Min Yoon

This study employs advanced econometric models—TVP-SV-VAR, BEKK-MGARCH, DCC)-MGARCH, and WQR models—to analyse the exchange rate sensitivity of global bond ETFs. It examines four major funds (BNDX, TPINX, MGBIX, and FGBFX) with differing exposures to Samurai, Yankee, and Bulldog bonds. The results show that exchange rate shocks (YEN/USD, GBP/USD, and BTC/USD) unevenly affect ETF returns and volatility across funds and time horizons. Bitcoin-related spillovers are strongest for MGBIX and FGBFX, which are more exposed to riskier emerging market bonds. TPINX and FGBFX offer limited Bitcoin volatility hedging. While conditional hedging exists, global bond ETFs primarily serve as diversifiers rather than as consistent hedges. WQR reveals fund-specific behaviour, such as BNDX hedging GBP/USD and TPINX acting as a temporary safe haven for YEN/USD during stress. Overall, hedging effectiveness varies by fund, bond exposure, and macrofinancial conditions; however, diversification plays a dominant role.

本研究采用先进的计量经济模型（tvp - sv - var、BEKK-MGARCH、DCC -MGARCH和WQR模型）分析全球债券etf的汇率敏感性。它考察了四个主要基金（BNDX， TPINX， MGBIX和FGBFX）对武士债券，洋基债券和斗牛犬债券的不同敞口。结果表明，汇率冲击（日元/美元、英镑/美元和比特币/美元）在不同基金和时间范围内对ETF收益和波动性的影响不均匀。比特币相关的溢出效应对MGBIX和FGBFX最为强烈，这两家公司对风险更高的新兴市场债券的敞口更大。TPINX和FGBFX提供有限的比特币波动对冲。虽然存在有条件的对冲，但全球债券etf主要是作为多样化工具，而不是作为持续的对冲工具。WQR揭示了基金的特定行为，例如BNDX对冲英镑/美元，TPINX在压力期间充当日元/美元的临时避风港。总体而言，对冲效果因基金、债券敞口和宏观金融状况而异；然而，多元化发挥了主导作用。

引用次数: 0

The impact of government accounting supervision on insider trading in China 中国政府会计监管对内幕交易的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100764

Lin Zhang , Fan Yong

This study examines how government accounting supervision influences insider trading in Chinese firms. Using data from 2007 to 2024 and a staggered difference-in-differences model, we find that accounting supervision significantly restrains insider trading, particularly insiders’ net-selling tendency. Government inspections also create strong spillover effects, discouraging insider trading even in firms not directly inspected. Mechanism analysis shows that shorter disclosure lags and higher reputational stress are key channels. The deterrent effect is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises, among top executives, and in capital-intensive industries. Overall, the results demonstrate that government accounting supervision functions as an effective external governance tool and provide policy guidance for enhancing market oversight.

本研究探讨政府会计监管对中国公司内幕交易的影响。利用2007 - 2024年的数据和交错差中差模型，我们发现会计监管显著抑制内幕交易，特别是内部人的净卖出倾向。政府检查也会产生强烈的溢出效应，即使在没有直接检查的公司也会阻止内幕交易。机制分析表明，较短的披露滞后和较高的声誉压力是关键渠道。在非国有企业、高层管理人员和资本密集型行业中，这种威慑效应更强。综上所述，政府会计监管作为一种有效的外部治理工具，为加强市场监管提供了政策指导。

引用次数: 0

Biodiversity risk and firms’ green investment: Evidence from China 生物多样性风险与企业绿色投资：来自中国的证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.026

Gang Wang

Amid growing global concerns over biodiversity risk and its financial implications, understanding how firms strategically respond to biodiversity risk has become a critical issue in sustainable finance. This study seeks to answer the research question: Does rising biodiversity risk stimulate or deter firms’ green investment? This is one of the first papers to examine firms’ green investment decisions during biodiversity risk exposure, using Chinese listed firms’ data from 2011 to 2023. Employing a fixed-effect model, we find that firms exposed to biodiversity risk increase their green investment by approximately 60.640 %, compared to firms not exposed to such risk. Furthermore, moderating effect analysis indicates that managerial shareholdings and corporate ESG performance can enhance the positive effect of biodiversity risk on firms’ green investment. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect is more pronounced in SOEs and pollution-intensive industries. Overall, we provide empirical support for the strategic growth option theory, suggesting that firms follow a preemptive strategy during ecological risk exposure.

随着全球对生物多样性风险及其金融影响的关注日益增加，了解企业如何从战略上应对生物多样性风险已成为可持续金融的一个关键问题。本研究试图回答一个研究问题：不断上升的生物多样性风险是刺激还是阻碍了企业的绿色投资？本文利用2011 - 2023年中国上市公司的数据，首次研究了企业在生物多样性风险暴露期间的绿色投资决策。采用固定效应模型，我们发现面临生物多样性风险的企业比未面临生物多样性风险的企业增加了大约60.640%的绿色投资。此外，调节效应分析表明，管理层持股和企业ESG绩效可以增强生物多样性风险对企业绿色投资的正向影响。此外，异质性分析表明，这种正效应在国有企业和污染密集型产业中更为明显。总体而言，我们为战略成长期权理论提供了实证支持，表明企业在生态风险暴露过程中采取了先发制人的策略。

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A financial anomaly 金融异常

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.024

Guillermo Peña

A new measure denominated ‘Financial Anomaly Index’ (FAI) is proposed, showing the anomalies of recent past years in the financial sector mainly due to unconventional monetary policies. The present paper provides evidence that, when applying the proposed index, there is a negative association between FAI and inflation in the short run. The null hypothesis that no variable Granger-causes the other is rejected. Different techniques are used, including a recent panel data test. A robustness check using a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is provided with a sample of 216 countries for 1960–2021.

提出了一种名为“金融异常指数”（FAI）的新措施，显示了近年来金融部门的异常，主要是由于非常规货币政策。本文提供的证据表明，当应用所提出的指数时，短期内固定资产投资与通货膨胀之间存在负相关。没有变量格兰杰导致另一个变量的零假设被拒绝。使用了不同的技术，包括最近的面板数据测试。使用系统广义矩量法（GMM）对1960-2021年216个国家的样本进行了鲁棒性检查。

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The role of valuation report contents in shaping Post-IPO share price performance 估值报告内容对ipo后股价表现的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100766

Selahattin Çağatay Öztürk , Güven Sayilgan

This study explores the effect of information associated with valuation reports before initial public offerings (IPOs) on post-IPO share price performance. Our results provide valuable insights for Türkiye as well as other emerging markets around the world. In addition, the comprehensive data and broad scope of information obtained from the pre-IPO valuation reports amplify the significance of our findings. We conduct a content analysis on 113 valuation reports, developing indexes for each report. Using regression analysis, we examine the impact of these indexes on post-IPO share price performance. Our results reveal the presence of abnormal returns in IPOs, which is consistent the findings in prior literature. Equally important, providing extensive information in valuation reports tends to reduce abnormal returns, whereas increasing the information associated with financials and valuation positively influences these returns. One significant finding is that analyst reputation substantially affects post-IPO share price performance.

本研究探讨首次公开发行（ipo）前与估值报告相关的信息对ipo后股价表现的影响。我们的研究结果为 rkiye以及全球其他新兴市场提供了宝贵的见解。此外，从上市前估值报告中获得的全面数据和广泛的信息增强了我们研究结果的重要性。我们对113份估值报告进行了内容分析，为每份报告制定了指标。利用回归分析，我们检验了这些指标对上市后股价表现的影响。本文的研究结果揭示了ipo存在异常收益，这与以往文献的研究结果一致。同样重要的是，在估值报告中提供广泛的信息往往会减少异常回报，而增加与财务和估值相关的信息则会对这些回报产生积极影响。一个重要的发现是，分析师的声誉在很大程度上影响ipo后的股价表现。

引用次数: 0

Jeonse-as-a-sukuk: Why is Korea a hidden champion of Islamic finance? △为什么韩国是伊斯兰金融的隐形冠军？

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100767

Hyoung-Goo Kang , Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin , Koeung Park , Doojin Ryu

This study examines Korea's jeonse (key money or lump-sum deposit) system using the framework of sukuk (Islamic financial certificates), highlighting their shared characteristics as asset-backed financial instruments. Despite having origins in different cultural and legal contexts, both systems have fundamental similarities in their approach to property rights, the structure of ownership, and risk distribution. By examining how jeonse can be interpreted and adapted as a sharia-compliant financial instrument, we contribute to the literature on cross-cultural financial innovation. Our analyses provide insights into alternative housing finance models that combine conventional and Islamic financial principles, fostering opportunities for global financial collaboration.

本研究使用伊斯兰金融证书（sukuk）的框架考察了韩国的jeonse（关键货币或一次性存款）制度，突出了它们作为资产支持金融工具的共同特征。尽管起源于不同的文化和法律背景，但两种制度在对待产权、所有权结构和风险分配的方式上有基本的相似之处。通过研究jeonse如何被解释和适应为符合伊斯兰教法的金融工具，我们为跨文化金融创新的文献做出了贡献。我们的分析为结合传统和伊斯兰金融原则的替代性住房融资模式提供了见解，为全球金融合作创造了机会。

引用次数: 0

Global risk factors and the time-varying connectedness between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies 全球风险因素以及清洁和肮脏加密货币之间的时变联系

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.020

Ramazan Yildirim , Alam Asadov , Chaker Aloui , Sami Mejri

This study investigates how global risk factors shape the dynamic connectedness between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies. Using daily data from November 2017 to October 2024, we construct equally and value-weighted clean-dirty correlation indexes and examine their relationship with four key stressors: economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), financial market volatility (VIX), and environmental risk, proxied by the Air Quality Index (AQI). Employing a three-method framework, Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-Dynamic Conditional Correlation (MGARCH-DCC) for time-varying correlations, Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) for directional connectedness, and quantile-on-quantile regression for tail dependence, we reveal that correlations between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies are generally positive but have sharp fluctuations during systemic crises. VIX and GPR emerge as the dominant shock transmitters, whereas EPU plays a limited role, and AQI has asymmetric effects. These findings show that comovement between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies is regime dependent and highly sensitive to external shocks.

这项研究调查了全球风险因素如何塑造清洁和肮脏加密货币之间的动态联系。利用2017年11月至2024年10月的日常数据，我们构建了等量加权和价值加权的清洁-肮脏相关指数，并研究了它们与四个关键压力因素的关系：经济政策不确定性（EPU）、地缘政治风险（GPR）、金融市场波动率（VIX）和环境风险（由空气质量指数（AQI）代表）。采用三种方法框架，多元广义自回归条件异方差-动态条件相关（MGARCH-DCC）用于时变相关性，时变参数向量自回归（tpv -var）用于方向性连接，分位数对分位数回归用于尾部依赖性，我们发现干净和脏加密货币之间的相关性通常是正的，但在系统危机期间会出现剧烈波动。VIX和GPR是主要的冲击传递器，EPU作用有限，AQI具有不对称效应。这些发现表明，干净和肮脏的加密货币之间的变动依赖于制度，对外部冲击高度敏感。

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Impact of exchange volatility on private- sector credit access in sub-Saharan African 汇率波动对撒哈拉以南非洲私营部门信贷获取的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.031

Temesgen Woldamanuel Wajebo, Alemayehu Geda

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on private sector credit supply in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Employing a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator on an unbalanced panel spanning 2003–2021, the analysis addresses endogeneity concerns and dynamic panel biases. The results reveal that exchange rate volatility significantly and negatively affects domestic credit to the private sector. This finding underscores the destabilizing role of exchange rate volatility, as heightened volatility amplifies uncertainty and risk, prompting financial institutions to adopt more conservative lending strategies. In conclusion, expanding private sector credit supply in the context of high exchange rate volatility necessitates a combination of sound macroeconomic management, targeted structural reforms, and institutional strengthening to foster a resilient financial system.

本研究探讨了汇率波动对撒哈拉以南非洲（SSA）私营部门信贷供应的影响。采用两步系统广义矩量法（GMM）估计器对2003-2021年的不平衡面板进行了分析，解决了内生性问题和动态面板偏差。结果表明，汇率波动对私营部门的国内信贷有显著的负面影响。这一发现强调了汇率波动的不稳定作用，因为波动加剧放大了不确定性和风险，促使金融机构采取更保守的贷款策略。总之，在汇率高度波动的背景下，扩大私营部门信贷供应需要健全的宏观经济管理、有针对性的结构性改革和加强制度建设相结合，以培育具有弹性的金融体系。

引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Why companies go public and private: The case of Türkiye” [Borsa Istanbul Review 25 (2025) 1208–1220 / 6] “为什么公司要上市和私有化：以<s:1> rkiye为例”的勘误表[Borsa Istanbul Review 25 (2025) 1208-1220 / 6]

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100779

S. Burcu Avci

引用次数: 0

Financial inclusion and household debt: Evidence from low-income and lower-middle-income countries 普惠金融与家庭债务：来自低收入和中低收入国家的证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.10.029

Pınar Sezer, Dilek Başar, Selcen Öztürk

This study examines the relation between financial inclusion (FI) and individual debt in low- and lower-middle-income countries, focusing on whether increased access to financial services promotes borrowing. Although FI is often advocated for enhancing economic opportunities, its implications for debt accumulation remain underexplored, particularly in developing economies. Using categorical and binary indicators of FI, the analysis reveals a nonlinear relation between FI and individual debt, highlighting a threshold beyond which increased access correlates with higher borrowing. The empirical analysis is based on probit regression, complemented by a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logit model to ensure robustness. The LASSO-logit approach confirms the primary findings and improves model parsimony by selecting the most relevant predictors of borrowing. Results emphasize the dual-edged nature of FI and the need for a nuanced, context-specific policy design to prevent over-indebtedness in financially underserved populations.

本研究考察了低收入和中低收入国家的普惠金融（FI）与个人债务之间的关系，重点关注金融服务的增加是否会促进借贷。虽然金融融资经常被提倡增加经济机会，但其对债务积累的影响仍未得到充分探讨，特别是在发展中经济体。利用金融融资额的分类和二元指标，分析揭示了金融融资额与个人债务之间的非线性关系，强调了一个阈值，超过这个阈值，获取渠道的增加与借贷的增加相关。实证分析基于概率回归，辅以最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)-logit模型，以确保稳健性。LASSO-logit方法通过选择最相关的借款预测因子，证实了初步发现，并提高了模型的简便性。研究结果强调了金融融资的双刃剑性质，以及需要制定细致入微的、针对具体情况的政策设计，以防止金融服务不足人群过度负债。

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