Borsa Istanbul Review最新文献

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From emotion to action: How intraday investor sentiment drives market microstructure 从情绪到行动：日内投资者情绪如何驱动市场微观结构

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100775

Qing Liu , Yanfeng Liu , Hosung Son

This study introduces the concept of “investor sentiment slices” to capture distinct emotional patterns within a single trading day. Using 4.41 million social media posts and natural language processing, we construct high-frequency sentiment indices representing four emotional states: adaptation, anchoring, process, and dormant sentiment. Regression analyses reveal that anchoring and process sentiments drive stock price movements by signaling market expectations, while adaptation and dormant sentiments reflect emotional buffering and accumulation. Importantly, the effects of these sentiment slices vary with market conditions: in pessimistic markets, investor behavior is dominated by emotionally anchored judgments, whereas in recovering markets, process sentiment becomes more influential, supporting rational integration of information. This temporally structured framework connects psychological theory with behavioral finance, showing how intraday sentiment dynamics affect trading and price formation. Our findings offer new insights into the sequential, condition-dependent nature of investor emotions and their role in shaping market behavior throughout the trading day.

本研究引入了“投资者情绪切片”的概念，以捕捉单个交易日内不同的情绪模式。利用441万条社交媒体帖子和自然语言处理，我们构建了代表四种情绪状态的高频情绪指数：适应、锚定、过程和休眠情绪。回归分析显示，锚定和过程情绪通过市场预期信号驱动股价波动，而适应和休眠情绪反映情绪缓冲和积累。重要的是，这些情绪切片的影响随市场状况而变化：在悲观的市场中，投资者的行为受到情绪锚定判断的支配，而在复苏的市场中，过程情绪变得更有影响力，支持信息的理性整合。这个时间结构框架将心理学理论与行为金融学联系起来，展示了日内情绪动态如何影响交易和价格形成。我们的研究结果为投资者情绪的顺序、条件依赖性质及其在整个交易日中塑造市场行为的作用提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

From synchronicity to fragility: How corporate ESG performance reshapes systemic risk 从同步性到脆弱性：企业ESG绩效如何重塑系统性风险

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100773

Zhiquan Shao , Bo Yu

Building on a framework in which firms are interconnected through fire-sale spillover mechanisms, we argue that strong ESG performance acts as a protective buffer for firms with weak financial performance against stock price declines. This reduces the dispersion of asset returns, thereby reducing cross-firm heterogeneity and inadvertently strengthening systemic linkages. To empirically examine how ESG performance reshapes systemic risk, we develop a novel network-based granular instrumental variable (GIV) that weights rating shocks by agency centrality to address endogeneity concerns. Consistent with theoretical predictions, our empirical results reveal that while superior ESG performance significantly mitigates individual tail risk, it simultaneously intensifies systemic linkages among firms. These effects are amplified when the information environment enhances the perceived credibility of ESG signals. Our findings illuminate the dual nature of ESG in systemic risk dynamics: while providing firm-level protection, ESG performance may inadvertently amplify system-wide fragility through enhanced interconnectedness.

基于企业通过贱卖溢出机制相互关联的框架，我们认为，强劲的ESG绩效可以作为财务业绩不佳的企业抵御股价下跌的保护性缓冲。这减少了资产回报的分散，从而减少了跨公司的异质性，并无意中加强了系统联系。为了实证研究ESG绩效如何重塑系统性风险，我们开发了一种基于网络的新型颗粒工具变量（GIV），该变量通过机构中心性对评级冲击进行加权，以解决内生性问题。与理论预测一致，我们的实证结果表明，卓越的ESG绩效在显著降低个体尾部风险的同时，也强化了企业之间的系统性联系。当信息环境增强了ESG信号的感知可信度时，这些影响就会被放大。我们的研究结果阐明了ESG在系统性风险动力学中的双重性质：在提供公司层面保护的同时，ESG绩效可能会通过增强互联性无意中放大整个系统的脆弱性。

引用次数: 0

Geopolitical risk, proximity, and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from Korea 地缘政治风险、邻近性和企业现金持有量：来自韩国的证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100788

Fariha Jahan, Doojin Ryu

This study examines how geographic proximity shapes the impact of geopolitical risk on the cash-holding behavior of Korean firms. Geopolitical risks in proximate partner countries induce stronger precautionary cash responses than comparable domestic shocks. Geopolitical risks associated with inter-Korean relations also influence firms' liquidity decisions, even in the presence of limited and episodic economic integration. The semiconductor industry exhibits heightened sensitivity to foreign geopolitical risks, although the effects are not uniform across industries. Larger firms and firms with higher foreign ownership tend to hold lower cash reserves. Geopolitical risks in strategically and economically critical proximate countries emerge as a driver of firms' liquidity policies, underscoring the importance of regional risk monitoring, governance quality, and targeted financial mechanisms for exposed industries.

本研究探讨地理邻近如何塑造地缘政治风险对韩国企业现金持有行为的影响。与可比的国内冲击相比，邻近伙伴国的地缘政治风险促使其采取更强的预防性现金应对措施。与朝韩关系相关的地缘政治风险也会影响企业的流动性决策，即使是在有限和断断续续的经济一体化存在的情况下。半导体行业对外国地缘政治风险表现出高度的敏感性，尽管不同行业的影响不尽相同。较大的公司和外资持股比例较高的公司往往持有较少的现金储备。在战略和经济上至关重要的邻近国家，地缘政治风险成为企业流动性政策的驱动因素，强调了区域风险监测、治理质量和有针对性的金融机制对受影响行业的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Religious investors and equity crowdfunding success 宗教投资者和股权众筹的成功

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100783

Murat Yaş

This study examines how Islamic religiosity influences equity crowdfunding success through messages on crowdfunding platforms in Türkiye, which lacks a sharia governance framework for financial technology (fintech). As the first empirical analysis of the role of Islamic religiosity in equity crowdfunding performance, it contributes to the literature. Using data from 95 crowdfunding campaigns conducted between 2021 and 2024 (79 Islamic and 16 conventional), we show that Islamic labeling and messaging affect campaign outcomes. Our findings reveal that Islamic equity crowdfunding campaigns attract 37.1 percent higher funding and 11.7 percent more investors, with higher success rates, than campaigns by their conventional counterparts. Explicit signals of sharia compliance though messaging enhance crowdfunding performance, as the volume of these messages is positively correlated with funding outcomes. The study demonstrates that religious signaling reduces information asymmetry and builds trust among faith-driven investors, providing crucial insights for platforms that operate in markets without a formal Islamic finance framework.

本研究考察了伊斯兰教的宗教信仰如何通过 rkiye众筹平台上的信息影响股权众筹的成功，该平台缺乏金融技术（fintech）的伊斯兰教法治理框架。作为首次实证分析伊斯兰宗教信仰对股权众筹绩效影响的研究，对文献有所贡献。利用2021年至2024年间进行的95次众筹活动（79次伊斯兰活动和16次传统活动）的数据，我们发现伊斯兰标签和信息会影响活动结果。我们的研究结果显示，与传统的股权众筹活动相比，伊斯兰股权众筹活动吸引了37.1%的资金和11.7%的投资者，成功率更高。通过信息传递明确的伊斯兰教法遵守信号可以提高众筹绩效，因为这些信息的数量与融资结果呈正相关。该研究表明，宗教信号减少了信息不对称，并在信仰驱动的投资者之间建立了信任，为在没有正式伊斯兰金融框架的市场中运营的平台提供了重要的见解。

引用次数: 0

Choosing not to borrow: Imprinting effects of informality on firms’ credit self-rationing 选择不借贷：非正式性对企业信贷自我配给的影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100785

Wenwen Jin

While firm financing constraints have been widely studied, limited attention has been paid to credit self-rationing. Based on the imprinting hypothesis and firm-level data from 30 countries, this study finds that informal experience significantly increases the likelihood of avoiding formal credit. This effect operates via structural and behavioral imprints shaped by early institutional exposure. Specifically, structural informality and weakened compliance behaviors strengthen credit self-rationing, whereas no evidence exists that cognitive imprints operate as an effective mediating channel. The effect of informal experience is more pronounced among non-female-led firms and firms operating in countries with weaker business environments. Moreover, the effect is most pronounced among firms facing severe financing obstacles, suggesting that avoidance motives outweigh optimization motives. The study provides demand-side evidence on the developmental origins of financing behavior in emerging and developing economies and offers implications for improving financial inclusion.

虽然企业融资约束已被广泛研究，但对信贷自我配给的关注有限。基于印迹假设和来自30个国家的企业层面数据，本研究发现，非正式经验显著增加了避免正式信贷的可能性。这种效应通过早期机构接触形成的结构和行为印记来发挥作用。具体而言，结构性非正式性和弱化的合规行为强化了信用自我配给，而认知印记作为有效中介渠道的证据并不存在。非正式经验的影响在非女性领导的公司和在商业环境较弱的国家经营的公司中更为明显。此外，在面临严重融资障碍的企业中，这种影响最为明显，这表明规避动机大于优化动机。该研究为新兴和发展中经济体融资行为的发展根源提供了需求侧证据，并为改善普惠金融提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

The asymmetric effect of capital flows and credit default swap spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate 资本流动和信用违约互换价差对美元/土耳其里拉汇率的不对称影响

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100774

Emel Akbal , Irfan Civcir

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of capital flows and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate employing the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology. We used a Turkish monthly dataset covering the period from 2003 to 2022. The findings indicate that capital flows exert an asymmetric impact on the exchange rate under investigation. Capital inflows and outflows exhibit notable significance in both the long and short run. Capital outflows exert a more significant impact on the exchange rate than capital inflows. Furthermore, in the long run, both capital inflows and outflows have a greater effect on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate than in the short term. The results also indicate that both in short-term and long-term the CDS spreads play a notably effective role in determining exchange rates.

本研究采用非线性自回归分布滞后（NARDL）方法研究了资本流动和信用违约互换（CDS）息差对美元/土耳其里拉汇率的不对称影响。我们使用了土耳其的月度数据集，涵盖了2003年至2022年的时间。研究结果表明，资本流动对汇率的影响是不对称的。资本流入和流出在长期和短期都表现出显著的显著性。资本外流对汇率的影响比资本流入更显著。此外，从长期来看，资本流入和流出对美元/土耳其里拉汇率的影响大于短期。研究结果还表明，无论在短期还是长期，CDS息差在决定汇率方面都发挥着显著有效的作用。

引用次数: 0

Is insider trading politically informative? 内幕交易有政治信息吗？

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100780

Zhenjun Li, Zulong Su, Lijun Wei

This study examines whether insider trading is politically informative and presents some evidence to hedge against firm-level political risk. Using quarterly data on U.S. listed firms from 2002 to 2021, we find that managers increase opportunistic insider sales prior to rises in firm-level political risk, while insider purchases show no significant change. Moreover, net opportunistic insider sales are positively associated with subsequent increases in a firm's political risk. These effects are more pronounced in firms with limited political connections, weaker innovation capability, and higher financial leverage, suggesting that political ties, innovation capability, and a sound financial structure serve as effective buffers against political risk. Our main results withstand a battery of robustness and endogeneity tests. Overall, our findings suggest that insider trading is politically informative, offering valuable insights for academics, regulators, and investors in interpreting such activities.

本研究考察了内幕交易是否具有政治信息性，并提供了一些证据来对冲公司层面的政治风险。利用2002年至2021年美国上市公司的季度数据，我们发现经理人在公司层面政治风险上升之前增加了机会性内幕销售，而内幕购买没有显着变化。此外，净机会主义内幕交易与随后公司政治风险的增加呈正相关。这些效应在政治关系有限、创新能力较弱、财务杠杆较高的企业中更为明显，表明政治关系、创新能力和健全的财务结构可以有效缓冲政治风险。我们的主要结果经受住了一系列稳健性和内生性检验。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，内幕交易具有政治信息性，为学者、监管机构和投资者解释此类活动提供了有价值的见解。

引用次数: 0

Fintech environment and gender disparity in financial Inclusion: Empirical evidence from emerging markets 金融科技环境与普惠金融中的性别差异：来自新兴市场的经验证据

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100787

Habib Hussain Khan, Shoaib Khan, Tahir Akhtar, Ayesha Anwar, Mohammad Rais Ahmad

This study investigates the impact of the fintech environment on gender disparities in financial inclusion across 31 countries from 2013 to 2023. Utilizing gender-disaggregated data from the IMF Financial Access Survey (FAS), we construct a fintech environment index comprising five sub-indices that measure technological and institutional readiness for digital finance. We also develop a comprehensive gender disparity index based on weighted gaps across five key dimensions of financial inclusion. The empirical analysis also incorporates a range of gender-specific and macro-level country variables, including female literacy rates, female labor force participation rates, female unemployment rates, income levels, access to the internet and electricity, mobile subscriptions, and institutional quality. Our findings consistently demonstrate that a robust fintech environment significantly narrows the gender gap in financial inclusion. Higher female literacy and labor force participation further reduce disparities, whereas female unemployment and gender inequality widen the gap. Additional enabling factors, such as improved income levels, digital and financial infrastructure, and strong institutional quality, also help reduce disparities. These results remain consistent across alternative estimation methods (IV regression) and across subgroups defined by income levels, gender disparity levels, and geographical divisions.

本研究调查了2013年至2023年31个国家的金融科技环境对普惠金融性别差异的影响。利用国际货币基金组织金融准入调查（FAS）的性别分类数据，我们构建了一个金融科技环境指数，包括五个子指数，衡量数字金融的技术和制度准备情况。我们还根据普惠金融五个关键维度的加权差距制定了一个全面的性别差异指数。该实证分析还纳入了一系列具体性别和宏观层面的国家变量，包括女性识字率、女性劳动力参与率、女性失业率、收入水平、互联网和电力接入、移动用户以及机构质量。我们的研究结果一致表明，稳健的金融科技环境显著缩小了普惠金融领域的性别差距。女性识字率和劳动力参与率的提高进一步缩小了差距，而女性失业和性别不平等则扩大了差距。其他有利因素，如收入水平提高、数字和金融基础设施以及强大的制度质量，也有助于缩小差距。这些结果在不同的估计方法（IV回归）和按收入水平、性别差异水平和地域划分的亚组之间保持一致。

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引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence and unethical financial practices: Examining the mediating role of environmental; social; and governance (ESG) performance in the Saudi financial sector 人工智能与不道德的金融行为：环境因素的中介作用社会;和治理（ESG）在沙特金融业的表现

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2026.100784

Laila Aladwey

This study investigates how the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) influences unethical financial practices—bribery, corruption, fraud (BCF), and tax avoidance—in the Saudi financial sector, with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance as a mediating factor. Employing the causal mediation framework of Imai et al. (2010a, Imai, Keele, & Yamamoto, 2010) and Tingley et al. (2014), the analysis uses generalized linear models (GLMs) for BCF, ordinary least squares (OLS) for tax avoidance, and a 5000-replication bootstrap procedure to enhance inferential robustness. The results reveal partial mediation: while AI adoption is associated with lower ESG performance, higher ESG scores partially mitigate AI's positive association with unethical practices. This finding implies that although ESG frameworks are effective in attenuating some of AI's adverse ethical impacts, they are insufficient alone to prevent misconduct. The findings underscore AI's dual role as a driver of ethical vulnerabilities in the absence of adequate oversight and a catalyst for improved governance when aligned with strong ESG principles. The study extends agency and stakeholder theories by illustrating how ESG serves simultaneously as a governance mechanism to reduce information asymmetry and as a legitimacy instrument to reinforce stakeholder trust in an AI-driven financial ecosystem.

本研究以环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效为中介因素，探讨了人工智能（AI）的采用如何影响沙特金融部门的不道德金融行为——贿赂、腐败、欺诈（BCF）和避税。采用Imai等人（2010a, Imai, Keele, & Yamamoto, 2010）和Tingley等人（2014）的因果中介框架，分析使用BCF的广义线性模型（GLMs），避税的普通最小二乘（OLS），以及5000个复制的自举过程来增强推理稳健性。结果揭示了部分中介作用：虽然人工智能的采用与较低的ESG绩效相关，但较高的ESG得分部分缓解了人工智能与不道德行为的正相关。这一发现意味着，尽管ESG框架在减轻人工智能的一些不利道德影响方面是有效的，但它们本身不足以防止不当行为。研究结果强调了人工智能的双重作用：在缺乏充分监督的情况下，人工智能是道德脆弱性的推动者；在与强有力的ESG原则保持一致的情况下，人工智能是改善治理的催化剂。该研究扩展了代理和利益相关者理论，说明了ESG如何同时作为减少信息不对称的治理机制，并作为在人工智能驱动的金融生态系统中加强利益相关者信任的合法性工具。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of the global financial cycle on systemic risk and the role of macroprudential policies 全球金融周期对系统性风险的影响及宏观审慎政策的作用

IF 7.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Borsa Istanbul Review

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.100769

Mingzhu Zhu, Xuyang Ma

In an increasingly complex international economic environment, preventing systemic risk requires attention to both domestic conditions and the spillover effects from global financial shocks. This study examines 42 economies to explore the global financial cycle's impact on systemic risk and its transmission mechanisms. The findings reveal that: (1) A downturn in the cycle may increase systemic risk. (2) The impact is stronger in economies with lower financial development, more open capital accounts, and less flexible exchange rate regimes. (3) The cycle induces systemic risk by reducing cross-border capital inflows and amplifying commodity price volatility, with capital flows into the banking sector identified as a key transmission channel. (4) Macroprudential measures mitigate the adverse effects of the global financial cycle on systemic risk, with institution-targeted instruments demonstrating strong effectiveness.

在日益复杂的国际经济环境下，防范系统性风险既需要关注国内情况，也需要关注全球金融冲击的溢出效应。本研究以42个经济体为研究对象，探讨全球金融周期对系统性风险的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明：(1)经济周期的下行可能会增加系统性风险。(2)在金融发展程度较低、资本账户开放程度较高、汇率制度灵活性较低的经济体中，这种影响更大。(3)该周期通过减少跨境资本流入和放大商品价格波动而引发系统性风险，资本流入银行业被认为是一个关键的传导渠道。(4)宏观审慎措施缓解了全球金融周期对系统性风险的不利影响，针对机构的工具显示出较强的有效性。

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