May the Intentional Candidate Win: The Effect of Global Performance Information on Intentionality Attributions and Managerial Hot-Hand Predictions

IF 1.8 3区 心理学 Q3 PSYCHOLOGY, APPLIED Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI:10.1002/bdm.2379
João Niza Braga, Sofia Jacinto
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Abstract

In organizational contexts, managers often have to judge and predict others' performance. Previous research has consistently shown that when predicting someone's performance, people expect that a local sequence of successful outcomes will continue—the hot-hand. The present work proposes that hot-hand predictions occur when local streaks are dispositionally attributed to the agents' intentionality and explores how the inclusion of global performance success rates may guide intentionality inferences and moderate predictions of success after a streak. Three studies, using within- and between-subjects' designs, manipulate agent's global success rate and show that after a local streak, intentionality attributions and predictions of success are lower when success rates are low (vs. high or unknown); intentionality attributions mediate the effect of success rate on predictions; hot-hand predictions are lower for low success rate agents (vs. high or unknown) as they are not perceived as more responsible for streaky than for alternated performances.

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愿有意者胜出:全球绩效信息对有意性归因和管理者热手预测的影响
在组织环境中,管理者经常需要判断和预测他人的绩效。以往的研究一直表明,在预测他人的绩效时,人们会期望成功结果的局部序列会持续下去,这就是 "热手"(hot-hand)。本研究提出,当局部连胜被归因于行为主体的意向性时,就会出现热手预测;本研究还探讨了将全局绩效成功率纳入其中如何指导意向性推断,以及连胜后成功预测的适度性。三项研究采用了被试内和被试间设计,操纵了被试的全局成功率,结果表明,在局部连胜之后,成功率低(相对于高或未知)时,意向性归因和成功预测较低;意向性归因调节了成功率对预测的影响;成功率低(相对于高或未知)的被试的热手预测较低,因为他们不认为连胜比交替表现更有责任。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
5.00%
发文量
40
期刊介绍: The Journal of Behavioral Decision Making is a multidisciplinary journal with a broad base of content and style. It publishes original empirical reports, critical review papers, theoretical analyses and methodological contributions. The Journal also features book, software and decision aiding technique reviews, abstracts of important articles published elsewhere and teaching suggestions. The objective of the Journal is to present and stimulate behavioral research on decision making and to provide a forum for the evaluation of complementary, contrasting and conflicting perspectives. These perspectives include psychology, management science, sociology, political science and economics. Studies of behavioral decision making in naturalistic and applied settings are encouraged.
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