Elevation modulates the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian Cerrado flora

IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Diversity and Distributions Pub Date : 2024-03-24 DOI:10.1111/ddi.13832
Mateus C. Silva, Lucy Rowland, Rafael S. Oliveira, R. Toby Pennington, Peter Moonlight
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Abstract

Aim

Climate change is causing species distribution to shift across the globe. Lowland taxa are moving upslope with warming, while montane species face extinction. We tested the hypothesis that elevation controls the future distribution of plant species in the Brazilian Cerrado, home of 3.5% of the Earth's flowering plants (c. 5000 endemic species) in just 0.4% of the planet's land surface.

Location

Cerrado region in Brazil.

Methods

We estimated geographical range shifts of 7398 angiosperm species by 2040 using species distribution models (SDMs). We stacked the SDMs to derive the temporal variations of species richness and composition over the Cerrado.

Results

Our results show that between 50 and 52% of the Cerrado flora will experience net range loss due to climate change. While montane species were more likely to lose range, range gain was more common among lowland taxa. We estimate that 68–73% of the Cerrado extent will face net species losses by 2040. Net species loss was more likely to occur below 743–798 metres above sea level. Virtually the entire Cerrado will experience some level of species replacement due to climate change and species turnover will intensify as elevation increases.

Main Conclusions

Our findings suggest that upslope migration allows lowland plants to track climate change (‘winners’), whereas montane taxa do not (‘losers’). As species move upslope, lowlands become local extinction hotspots and mountains harbour novel plant assemblages. Therefore, elevation exerts a central role in shaping Cerrado flora responses to climate change and potentially the long-term efficacy of conservation and restoration efforts.

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海拔调节气候变化对巴西塞拉多植物区系的影响
气候变化导致全球物种分布发生变化。随着气候变暖,低地类群正在向上游移动,而高山物种则面临灭绝。我们测试了海拔高度控制巴西塞拉多地区植物物种未来分布的假设,该地区仅占地球陆地面积的 0.4%,却拥有地球上 3.5% 的开花植物(约 5000 种特有物种)。
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来源期刊
Diversity and Distributions
Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
195
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.
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