Evaluation of an Impulse-Response Emulator for Groundwater Contaminant Transport Modeling.

Ground water Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-28 DOI:10.1111/gwat.13405
Brent P Heerspink, Michael N Fienen, Howard W Reeves
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Abstract

There is a significant need to develop decision support tools capable of delivering accurate representations of environmental conditions, such as ground and surface water solute concentrations, in a timely and computationally efficient manner. Such tools can be leveraged to assess a large number of potential management strategies for mitigating non-point source pollutants. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the impulse-response emulation approach to approximate process-based groundwater model estimates of solute transport from MODFLOW and MT3D over a wide range of model inputs and parameters, with the goal of assessing where in parameter space the assumptions underlying this emulation approach are valid. The impulse-response emulator was developed using the sensitivity analysis utilities in the PEST++ software suite and is capable of approximating MODFLOW/MT3D estimates of solute transport over a large portion of the parameter space tested, except in cases where the Courant number is above 0.5. Across all runs tested, the highest percent errors were at the plume fronts. These results suggest that the impulse-response approach may be suitable for emulation of solute transport models for a wide range of cases, except when high-resolution outputs are needed, or when very low concentrations at plume edges are of particular interest.

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评估用于地下水污染物迁移建模的脉冲响应仿真器。
目前亟需开发决策支持工具,以便及时、高效地提供准确的环境状况信息,如地下水和地表水溶质浓度。此类工具可用于评估大量潜在的管理策略,以减轻非点源污染物的影响。在此,我们评估了脉冲响应仿真方法的有效性,该方法可以在广泛的模型输入和参数范围内近似地估计 MODFLOW 和 MT3D 基于过程的地下水模型的溶质迁移量,目的是评估该仿真方法所依据的假设在参数空间的哪个位置是有效的。脉冲响应模拟器是利用 PEST++ 软件套件中的敏感性分析工具开发的,能够在测试的大部分参数空间内近似模拟 MODFLOW/MT3D 估算的溶质迁移量,但库仑数超过 0.5 的情况除外。在所有测试运行中,羽流前沿的误差百分比最高。这些结果表明,脉冲响应方法可能适用于多种情况下的溶质迁移模型模拟,但需要高分辨率输出或特别关注羽流边缘的极低浓度时除外。
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