Two distinct declining trend of autumn Arctic sea ice concentration before and after 2002

Abstract

This study investigates the Arctic sea ice concentration trend during 1979–2021 and explores why the autumn Arctic sea ice loss is accelerated after 2002 and its trend declining center shifts from the Chukchi Sea to the Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas. Attribution analysis reveals that the enhanced summer sea ice concentration negative trend in large part explains the autumn sea ice concentration accelerating reduction, whereas it is the trend center shift of increased downward longwave radiation that accounts for mostly of the autumn sea ice concentration decline center shift. Further analysis suggests the downward longwave radiation trend is closely related to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. A tendency towards a dipole structure with an anticyclonic circulation over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean and a cyclonic circulation over Barents-Kara Seas enhances (suppresses) the downward longwave radiation over Western (Eastern) Arctic by warming and moistening (cooling and drying) the lower troposphere during 1979–2001. In comparison, a tendency towards a stronger Ural anticyclone combined with positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation pattern significantly promotes the increase of downward longwave radiation over Barents-Kara-Laptev Seas during 2002–2021. Our results set new insights into the Arctic sea ice variability and deepen our understanding of the climate change.