Assessing and mapping cropland abandonment risk in China

Abstract

Cropland abandonment (CA) in China worsens the human-land conflict and endangers national food sustainability. Scientifically assessing cropland abandonment risk (CAR) can provide valuable information for early warning and prevention of CA. Despite the extensive literature on the identification, determinants, and consequences of CA, the research on CAR still needs to be improved, especially on a grid scale. Therefore, this study constructed an evaluation indicators system regarding farming conditions, socio-economic, and patch characteristics and used optimal parametric geographical detector and structural equation modeling to assess the CAR in China from 2010 to 2020. The results show China's CAR decreased from west to east. Very high and high CAR areas were in plateaus and mountains in western China. Medium CAR areas were mainly in central and southeastern China. Very low and low CAR areas were mainly in the Sichuan Basin and eastern plains. In 2010, the high and medium CARs accounted for a larger share of the area, 24.814% and 24.759%, respectively. The area share of very low, low, and very high CAR was 19.294%, 19.501%, and 11.633%, respectively. By 2020, both low and very high CARs increased, while the opposite was true for other grades of CAR. Very high CAR increased most evidently in the Loess Plateau. Although high CAR decreased, 43,327 km² of medium CAR was converted to high CAR. CAR's centers of gravity in China were located at the junction of the Loess Plateau and the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and have shifted to the northwest by 5445.34 m. The findings will assist stakeholders in developing targeted cropland protection strategies to prevent CA and efficiently allocate resources for agricultural production.