Tracking the spatial footprints of extreme storm surges around the coastline of the UK and Ireland

IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Weather and Climate Extremes Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2024.100662
Paula Camus , Ivan D. Haigh , Niall Quinn , Thomas Wahl , Thomas Benson , Ben Gouldby , Ahmed A. Nasr , Md Mamunur Rashid , Alejandra R. Enríquez , Stephen E. Darby , Robert J. Nicholls , Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo
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Abstract

Storm surges are the most important driver of flooding in many coastal areas. Understanding the spatial extent of storm surge events has important financial and practical implications for flood risk management, reinsurance, infrastructure reliability and emergency response. In this paper, we apply a new tracking algorithm to a high-resolution surge hindcast (CODEC, 1980–2017) to characterize the spatial dependence and temporal evolution of extreme surge events along the coastline of the UK and Ireland. We quantify the severity of each spatial event based on its footprint extremity to select and rank the collection of events. Several surge footprint types are obtained based on the most impacted coastal stretch from each particular event, and these are linked to the driving storm tracks. Using the collection of the extreme surge events, we assess the spatial distribution and interannual variability of the duration, size, severity, and type. We find that the northeast coastline is most impacted by the longest and largest storm surge events, while the English Channel experiences the shortest and smallest storm surge events. The interannual variability indicates that the winter seasons of 1989-90 and 2013–14 were the most serious in terms of the number of events and their severity, based on the return period along the affected coastlines. The most extreme surge event and the highest number of events occurred in the winter season 1989–90, while the proportion of events with larger severities was higher during the winter season 2013–14. This new spatial analysis approach of surge extremes allows us to distinguish several categories of spatial footprints of events around the UK/Ireland coast and link these to distinct storm tracks. The spatial dependence structures detected can improve multivariate statistical methods which are crucial inputs to coastal flooding assessments.

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跟踪英国和爱尔兰海岸线周围极端风暴潮的空间足迹
风暴潮是造成许多沿海地区洪水泛滥的最重要原因。了解风暴潮事件的空间范围对洪水风险管理、再保险、基础设施可靠性和应急响应具有重要的财务和实际意义。在本文中,我们将一种新的跟踪算法应用于高分辨率浪涌后报(CODEC,1980-2017 年),以描述英国和爱尔兰海岸线上极端浪涌事件的空间依赖性和时间演变特征。我们根据每个空间事件的足迹极值对其严重程度进行量化,从而对事件集合进行选择和排序。根据每个特定事件影响最严重的海岸带,可以得到几种浪涌足迹类型,并将这些类型与驱动风暴轨迹联系起来。利用收集到的极端浪涌事件,我们评估了浪涌持续时间、规模、严重程度和类型的空间分布和年际变化。我们发现,东北海岸线受最长和最大风暴潮事件的影响最大,而英吉利海峡则经历最短和最小的风暴潮事件。年际变化表明,根据受影响海岸线的回归期,1989-1990 年和 2013-14 年冬季的事件数量和严重程度最为严重。最极端的浪涌事件和最多的事件发生在 1989-90 年冬季,而严重程度较高的事件在 2013-14 年冬季所占比例较高。通过这种新的浪涌极端事件空间分析方法,我们可以区分出英国/爱尔兰海岸周围几类事件的空间足迹,并将这些足迹与不同的风暴轨迹联系起来。检测到的空间依赖结构可以改进多变量统计方法,而多变量统计方法是沿海洪水评估的重要输入。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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