Extreme weather events induced mortalities in Jammu and Kashmir, India during 2010-2022

Abstract

A study has been conducted on Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) induced mortalities in Jammu and Kashmir, India during 2010-2022. In the present study, we used the frequency of heavy rain, heavy snow, lightning/thunderstorm, Hailstorm and squall during the period 2010 to 2022 of 10 stations of J&K from India Meteorological Department. The mortalities occurred due to these extreme weather events for each district were collected from the Meteorological Centre Srinagar. The mean monthly precipitation and number of rainy days for each month was calculated for each station based on 40 years data (1982 to 2022). During the past 12 years, (2010-2022) a total of 2863 EWEs occurred over J&K in which 552 deaths occurred till 31st December 2022. Among the various EWEs, lightning (1942) and heavy rainfall (409) events were more frequent. When we compare the mortality per event, the heavy snow was more destructive compared to any other EWEs. The mortality per event due to heavy snow was highest (4.33) as compared to other extreme events, although the number of events of heavy snow is less (42) as compared to heavy rain (409), flash floods (168) and lightning (1942). District wise results of EWEs results revealed the highest deaths due to heavy snow were observed over Kupwara, Bandipora, Baramulla and Ganderbal. Similarly for flash floods, the highest deaths were observed over Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbaland Doda. The Pearson correlation results revealed highest correlation of total deaths for heavy rain (0.77) and heavy snow (0.69) (significant at p value p<0.01) followed by flash floods (0.492) (significant at p value p<0.05). Negative correlation result was observed between heavy snow and windstorm (0.584) (significant at p value p<0.05). The present study has shown that, for the union territory as a whole, the heavy rain and heavy snow have been two major disasters causing mortality, though flashfloods, thunderstorms and windstorms are gaining importance. The trend analysis results also revealed that there is a significant increase in mortality over the years particularly due to flash floods (R2 value 0.434) and windstorm (R2 value 0.371).