Climate Change Implications for Agricultural Productivity: A Comprehensive Analysis

Abstract

The impact of climate change on global agriculture has been noticeable in recent decades, with rapid trends affecting various agricultural regions. As we look to the future, concerns about food security arise, prompting questions about the potential effects on aggregate productivity. Numerous factors, such as population growth, income disparities, dietary preferences, disease incidence, and competing demands for land and water resources, will influence global food security in the coming decades. While studies indicate that the overall food supply worldwide may not be seriously jeopardized by projected climate changes, there is a growing consensus that food insecurity in Africa will intensify. The risk of hunger is expected to increase both in terms of percentage and absolute numbers throughout the century. Despite projections suggesting a relatively minimal impact on the global average supply of calories in the next few decades, ranging from close to zero to potentially 20% to 30% of overall yield trends, the complexity of the issue is underscored by significant regional variations. The global perspective on food security conceals nuanced changes at smaller scales, which could have substantial implications even if overall production is maintained. To mitigate uncertainties in understanding global impacts, this paper recommends improving estimates of global warming rates and the responsiveness of crop yields to both warming and increased carbon dioxide levels. The responsiveness of yields is intricately linked to various factors, including genetic improvements made to crops, making it essential to address these variables for a more accurate assessment of future scenarios. Keywords: Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, Food Security, Global Warming, Crop Yield Responsiveness