Forecast of Land Cover Change as a Sustainable Flood Prevention Strategy using Cellular Automata Model in Lampoko Watershed, South Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract

The Lampoko watershed is the biggest watershed in South Sulawesi's Barru Regency. Flooding is a common occurrence in this area, particularly tidal flooding. To get around this, this research uses a geographic information system to estimate land cover and reveal how an organization will grow in the future. This forecast is meant to help plan preventive measures in organizational regions where flooding is anticipated. The CA-Markov model was used to analyze satellite imagery data (Landsat 8 OLI TIRS Year 2015-2021). The findings revealed an increasing pattern of land cover change in several land cover classes that were hubs of communal activity including villages, fisheries (ponds) and agricultural (rice fields). Balusu, Lampoko and Ajakkang are areas that need to be prepared for since they are part of regions with a high likelihood of flooding in the future.