Quadruple Witching Days and Abnormal Returns Analysis in The Indonesian Stock Market

Fahmi Zulfikar, Endri Endri
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Abstract

The aim of this research is to analyze the Quadruple Witching Days phenomenon and its impact on abnormal returns on the Indonesian stock market. This phenomenon has attracted the attention of many investors and academics, because it is believed to be able to significantly influence stock price movements. It is hoped that the results of this research can provide an in-depth understanding of the influence of Quadruple Witching Days on the Indonesian capital market. Associative descriptive research tests the influence of Quadruple Witching Days. Using secondary data and library methods in the LQ45 and SRI-KEHATI stock indices listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2010 to 2022 with daily and weekly data. The hypothesis test that will be used in this research is the Paired Sample t - Test and the non-parametric Mann-Withney test. There are differences in abnormal returns before and after the Quadruple Witching Days event on the LQ45 stock index. There is no difference in abnormal returns before and after the Quadruple Witching Days event on the SRI-KEHATI stock index. High Vigilance, Quick Selling or Buying, Portfolio Diversification as a consideration for taking profits for investors LQ45, Long Term Investment Approach, Portfolio Stabilization may be more suitable with investment strategies because there is no significant difference in abnormal returns, investors in SRI-KEHATI.
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印尼股票市场的 "四巫日 "和异常回报分析
本研究旨在分析印尼股市的 "四重魔咒日 "现象及其对异常回报的影响。这一现象引起了许多投资者和学者的关注,因为人们认为它能够显著影响股价走势。希望本研究的结果能够让人们深入了解 "四巫日 "对印尼资本市场的影响。联想描述性研究检验了 "四巫日 "的影响。利用二级数据和图书馆方法,对 2010 年至 2022 年期间在印尼证券交易所上市的 LQ45 和 SRI-KEHATI 股票指数进行每日和每周数据分析。本研究将使用的假设检验方法是配对样本 t 检验和非参数 Mann-Withney 检验。LQ45 股指在四重 "巫术日 "事件前后的异常收益存在差异。SRI-KEHATI 股指在四重 "巫术日 "事件前后的异常收益率没有差异。高度警惕、快速卖出或买入、投资组合分散化作为 LQ45 投资者获利的考虑因素、长期投资方法、投资组合稳定化可能更适合 SRI-KEHATI 投资者的投资策略,因为其异常收益没有显著差异。
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