The Heterogeneous Impact of Changes in the Age Structure of China’s Elderly Population on Regional Economic Development

IF 4.7 3区材料科学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC ACS Applied Electronic Materials Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.2478/amns-2024-0690

Yi Zhang

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Abstract

Currently, the impact of population aging on economic development is mainly explored from the dimension of time, ignoring the Heterogeneity between the two. In this paper, we start by measuring the regional economic development level index, use the entropy value method to solve the index weights, and calculate the regional economic development level index using the linear weighting method. The regional development level index is used as an explanatory variable to construct the baseline regression model and the dynamic panel model for the change in the age structure of the elderly population. The panel data of 31 provinces (cities/autonomous regions) in China are used as examples to explore the heterogeneous effects of age structure changes on regional economic development of the elderly population. The results show that when the age structure change of the elderly population increases by 1%, the regional economic development level rises by 0.782%, and the age structure change of the elderly population is positively and significantly affecting the quality of economic development in the central and western regions at the 1% level. The regression coefficient of population aging in the low level stage is 0.007. The effect on the regional economic development level is significantly positive at the 1%. The age structure change of the elderly population affects the regional economic development by mediating health consumption expenditure. The age structure change of the elderly population has Heterogeneity in regional economic development in terms of period, region, and level at different stages.

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中国老年人口年龄结构变化对区域经济发展的异质性影响

目前，人口老龄化对经济发展的影响主要从时间维度进行探讨，忽略了二者之间的异质性。本文从测算区域经济发展水平指数入手，利用熵值法求解指数权重，采用线性加权法计算区域经济发展水平指数。以区域发展水平指数为解释变量，构建老年人口年龄结构变化的基线回归模型和动态面板模型。以中国 31 个省（市/自治区）的面板数据为例，探讨老年人口年龄结构变化对区域经济发展的异质性影响。结果表明，当老年人口年龄结构变化增加 1%时，区域经济发展水平上升 0.782%，老年人口年龄结构变化在 1%的水平上正向显著影响中西部地区的经济发展质量。低水平阶段人口老龄化的回归系数为 0.007。对区域经济发展水平的影响在 1%的水平上显着为正。老年人口年龄结构变化通过医疗消费支出的中介作用影响地区经济发展。老年人口年龄结构变化对地区经济发展在不同阶段的时期、地区和水平方面具有异质性。

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来源期刊

ACS Applied Electronic Materials Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.30%

发文量

567

期刊介绍： ACS Applied Electronic Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of electronic materials. The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrate knowledge in the areas of materials science, engineering, optics, physics, and chemistry into important applications of electronic materials. Sample research topics that span the journal's scope are inorganic, organic, ionic and polymeric materials with properties that include conducting, semiconducting, superconducting, insulating, dielectric, magnetic, optoelectronic, piezoelectric, ferroelectric and thermoelectric. Indexed/Abstracted： Web of Science SCIE Scopus CAS INSPEC Portico

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