Evaluation of in silico model predictions for mammalian acute oral toxicity and regulatory application in pesticide hazard and risk assessment

Abstract

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) uses the lethal dose 50% (LD₅₀) value from in vivo rat acute oral toxicity studies for pesticide product label precautionary statements and environmental risk assessment (RA). The Collaborative Acute Toxicity Modeling Suite (CATMoS) is a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR)-based in silico approach to predict rat acute oral toxicity that has the potential to reduce animal use when registering a new pesticide technical grade active ingredient (TGAI). This analysis compared LD₅₀ values predicted by CATMoS to empirical values from in vivo studies for the TGAIs of 177 conventional pesticides. The accuracy and reliability of the model predictions were assessed relative to the empirical data in terms of USEPA acute oral toxicity categories and discrete LD₅₀ values for each chemical. CATMoS was most reliable at placing pesticide TGAIs in acute toxicity categories III (>500–5000 mg/kg) and IV (>5000 mg/kg), with 88% categorical concordance for 165 chemicals with empirical in vivo LD₅₀ values ≥ 500 mg/kg. When considering an LD₅₀ for RA, CATMoS predictions of 2000 mg/kg and higher were found to agree with empirical values from limit tests (i.e., single, high-dose tests) or definitive results over 2000 mg/kg with few exceptions.