ADDRESSING THE INTENSITY OF CHANGES IN THE PREHISTORIC POPULATION DYNAMICS: POPULATION GROWTH RATE ESTIMATIONS IN THE CENTRAL BALKANS EARLY NEOLITHIC

Abstract

The intensity of changes in the population dynamics of the Early Neolithic (ca. 6250–5300 cal BC) communities in the Central Balkans was addressed by estimating the growth rate values. The Bayesian approach (Crema and Shoda 2021) of estimating intrinsic growth rates by fitting different models of population growth was applied to radiocarbon dates from the Early Neolithic sites in Serbia. We explored two possible episodes of population growth based on the results of the population dynamics reconstruction using the summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions (SPD) method. The results have shown that, within the first episode of growth, the intrinsic growth rate mean values are higher than the estimated continental average (between 1% and 2%). The results indicate a sudden and fast rise in population size, possibly due to the influx of the new population settling in the region at the beginning of the Neolithic. Lower values for the second episode could indicate more gradual population growth due to the mechanisms associated with the Neolithic Demographic Transition and the rise in fertility.