Statistical precursors of the 6.4 magnitude earthquake on December 29, 2020, near Petrinja town, Croatia

IF 1.3 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Journal of Earth System Science Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI:10.1007/s12040-024-02273-8

A E Volvach, L P Kogan, L N Volvach, K H Kanonidi, I T Bubukin, V B Shtenberg, A G Aronov, G A Aronov, L L Pustoshilo

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this work, it is shown that early warning signals were recorded prior to a 6.4 magnitude earthquake that took place on December 29, 2020, near the Croatian city of Petrinja. The study relied on analyzing property changes in small-scale probability density fluctuations in three parameters of the Earth’s magnetic field: X, Y and Z. The applied technique made it possible to identify a set of these precursors in intervals ranging from two and a half days to one day to less than one hour before this event. It has been observed that the three magnetic variation stations located at distances of approximately 300, 1000, and 1500 km from the epicenter exhibit significant differences in the occurrence of early warning signs and critical phenomena during an impending earthquake. These differences are related to the intensity and frequency of the effects observed at each station.

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2020 年 12 月 29 日克罗地亚佩特里尼亚镇附近发生 6.4 级地震的统计前兆

这项研究表明，在 2020 年 12 月 29 日克罗地亚佩特里尼亚市附近发生 6.4 级地震之前记录到了预警信号。研究依赖于分析地球磁场三个参数的小规模概率密度波动的属性变化：应用该技术可以在事件发生前的两天半、一天到不到一小时的时间间隔内识别出这些前兆。据观察，距离震中约 300、1000 和 1500 公里的三个磁场变化站在地震即将发生时出现的预警信号和关键现象方面存在显著差异。这些差异与每个台站观测到的效应强度和频率有关。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Earth System Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

226

期刊介绍： The Journal of Earth System Science, an International Journal, was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed ‘Journal of Earth System Science’. The journal is highly inter-disciplinary and publishes scholarly research – new data, ideas, and conceptual advances – in Earth System Science. The focus is on the evolution of the Earth as a system: manuscripts describing changes of anthropogenic origin in a limited region are not considered unless they go beyond describing the changes to include an analysis of earth-system processes. The journal''s scope includes the solid earth (geosphere), the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (including cryosphere), and the biosphere; it also addresses related aspects of planetary and space sciences. Contributions pertaining to the Indian sub- continent and the surrounding Indian-Ocean region are particularly welcome. Given that a large number of manuscripts report either observations or model results for a limited domain, manuscripts intended for publication in JESS are expected to fulfill at least one of the following three criteria. The data should be of relevance and should be of statistically significant size and from a region from where such data are sparse. If the data are from a well-sampled region, the data size should be considerable and advance our knowledge of the region. A model study is carried out to explain observations reported either in the same manuscript or in the literature. The analysis, whether of data or with models, is novel and the inferences advance the current knowledge.