Look over there. Where? A compositional approach to the modeling of public opinion on the most important problem

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aims to test whether the American public is polarized and/or parallel in its assessments of the most important problem.MethodsWe use compositional time series models and new data on public opinion to test for differences between subgroups.ResultsWe find inconsistent evidence of polarization for some issue areas but not others and remarkably robust evidence of parallel reactions across subgroups to economic and international shocks.ConclusionThe U.S. public is remarkably consistent in terms of its assessments of the most important problem and in how subgroups shift their perceptions of issue importance in reaction to changing circumstances.