The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022: How Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Can Adversely Affect Assets in Low-Earth Orbit

Abstract

On 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly de-orbited. Although this event was attributed to space weather, definitive causality remained elusive because space weather conditions were not extreme. In this study, we identify solar sources of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections that were responsible for the geomagnetic storms around the time of launch of the Starlink satellites and for the first time, investigate their impact on Earth's magnetosphere using magnetohydrodynamic modeling. The model results demonstrate that the satellites were launched into an already disturbed space environment that persisted over several days. However, on performing comparative satellite orbital decay analyses, we find that space weather alone was not responsible but conspired together with a low-altitude insertion and low satellite mass-to-area ratio to precipitate this unusual loss. Our work bridges space weather causality across the Sun–Earth system—with relevance for space-based human technologies.