Neighbourhood labour structure, lockdown policies, and the uneven spread of COVID-19: within-city evidence from England

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Economica Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI:10.1111/ecca.12522
Carlo Corradini, Jesse Matheson, Enrico Vanino
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Abstract

We estimate the importance of local labour structure in the spread of COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic. We build a unique dataset across 6791 English neighbourhoods that distinguishes between people living (residents) and people working (workers) in a neighbourhood, and differentiate between jobs that can be done from home (homeworkers), jobs that likely continued on-site (keyworkers), and non-essential on-site jobs. We find that a 10 percentage points increase in keyworker jobs among residents is associated with 3.15 more cases per 1000 (4.8% relative to the mean), while a 10 percentage points increase in homeworker jobs among residents is associated with a decrease of 7.74 cases per 1000 (11.8% relative to the mean). Results for the composition of workers show the same sign, but smaller magnitudes. A dynamic analysis of the monthly incidence of reported cases shows that these relationships are particularly strong during lockdown periods. These results are heterogeneous across neighbourhoods, with larger positive effect of keyworkers, and lower protective effect of homeworkers, in higher deprivation areas. We explore the role of occupation skill intensity in driving these neighbourhood differences. These findings highlight important asymmetries in the distributional impact of the policy response to COVID-19.

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邻里劳动力结构、封锁政策和 COVID-19 的不均衡传播:英格兰城市内部的证据
我们估算了 COVID-19 大流行第一年期间当地劳动力结构在传播中的重要性。我们在英国 6791 个社区中建立了一个独特的数据集,该数据集区分了居住在社区中的人(居民)和工作的人(工人),并区分了可以在家完成的工作(家庭佣工)、可能继续在现场完成的工作(关键工人)和非必要的现场工作。我们发现,居民中的关键工人工作每增加 10 个百分点,每 1000 人中的病例数就会增加 3.15 例(相对于平均值增加 4.8%),而居民中的家庭工人工作每增加 10 个百分点,每 1000 人中的病例数就会减少 7.74 例(相对于平均值减少 11.8%)。工人构成的结果显示了相同的符号,但幅度较小。对每月报告病例发生率的动态分析显示,这些关系在封锁期间尤为紧密。这些结果在不同社区之间存在差异,在贫困程度较高的地区,关键工人的积极作用更大,而家庭工人的保护作用较小。我们探讨了职业技能强度在推动这些街区差异方面的作用。这些发现凸显了 COVID-19 政策应对措施在分配影响方面的重要不对称性。
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来源期刊
Economica
Economica ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
49
审稿时长
5 weeks
期刊介绍: Economica is an international journal devoted to research in all branches of economics. Theoretical and empirical articles are welcome from all parts of the international research community. Economica is a leading economics journal, appearing high in the published citation rankings. In addition to the main papers which make up each issue, there is an extensive review section, covering a wide range of recently published titles at all levels.
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